NFL Picks Week 14: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Thursday night games in the NFL have often been tedious affairs this season. The players are working on short rest, have had little time to fully absorb new game plans and are maybe still getting over the highs or lows of the previous Sunday. Many of the games have been decidedly lopsided, or contested between two also-rans hardly worthy of a national spotlight.

Week 14's Thursday night game could be very, very different from some of the previous 13 iterations. At the very least, the stakes will be the highest they've been all season when the Oakland Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. 

The Raiders are 10-2, tops in the AFC West and in line for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs are right behind the Raiders at 9-3, second in the AFC West and the No. 5 seed in the postseason bracket.

Kansas City has a brilliant opportunity to get level with the Raiders and turn the AFC West into the league's most interesting division down the stretch, with the Denver Broncos lurking at 8-4 and the San Diego Chargers with the opportunity to play a dangerous spoiler role. 

It's one of the best matchups of Week 14 and will likely be one of the toughest to pick for bettors and experts alike. There's plenty more great football to be had in this week as the tension mounts in the December push to the playoffs.

Here's a look at the latest odds for each game as well as expert predictions for the entire slate.

Matchup (spread)	Over/Under	Stephen White, SB Nation	Dave Richard, CBS Sports	Matt Bowen, ESPN	John Halpin, Fox Sports	FiveThirtyEight
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)	45.5	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs 69%
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-1)	43.5	Broncos	Titans	Broncos	Titans	Broncos 69%
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Buffalo Bills	47	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Bills 53%
Washington Redskins (even) at Philadelphia Eagles	46.5	Eagles	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Eagles 54%
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars	39	Jaguars	Vikings	Vikings	Jaguars	Vikings 73%
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns	43	Bengals	Browns	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals 75%
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-1)	43.5	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Dolphins	Cardinals-Dolphins 50%
San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)	48	Panthers	Panthers	Chargers	Chargers	Panthers 69%
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5)	43.5	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions 82%
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)	46.5	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts 64%
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)	44	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	Jets 57%
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)	51	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers 66%
Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Los Angeles Rams	45	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons 63%
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers	46.5	Packers	Packers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks 59%
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants	47.5	Cowboys	Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys 59%
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7)	45	Patriots	Ravens	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots 79%

Though it's not an eye-popping spread by any means, one of the more surprising lines of Week 14 is is the Tennessee Titans holding as one-point favorites at home over the Broncos, the defending Super Bowl champions no less.

The Titans have been one of the league's poorest teams over the past couple seasons—and one of the league's worst at home—but have found their footing in 2016. A powerful, effective run game led by DeMarco Murray (1,043 rushing yards) has allowed second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota (25 TDs, 8 INTs) to succeed against honest defenses prone to over-committing on play-action passes.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

As a result, the Titans are 6-6 and have a shot at the playoffs in the weak AFC South.

The Broncos come into this game desperately in need of a win to shore up their own postseason chances. After the Titans, the Broncos have a murderers' row of the New England Patriots, Chiefs and then Raiders to close out the season.

A big game out of Von Miller will go a long way toward spoiling the Titans' surprising status as favorites. The Titans won't be able to get away with long-developing pass plays if he's putting constant pressure on Mariota.

Wideouts Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe have blossomed as the season has come along, but the Broncos' generally airtight secondary should be able to bottle them up. It will be up to Murray and tight end Delanie Walker to keep the chains moving for Tennessee as they try to outscore the Broncos' lackluster attack.

The Broncos will hope quarterback Trevor Siemian is fully fit to play against the Titans. After throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12 against Kansas City, Siemian was out for the Broncos' 20-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 with a foot injury.

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, Siemian is out of a walking boot and expected to play against the Titans.

"I’m feeling better," Siemian said, per Jeff Legwold. "Feel like [Wednesday] went well, feel like I’m getting better every day. ... Everything’s gone well so far. Fingers crossed moving forward."

If Siemian can conjure up a performance akin to the one he put in against Kansas City, the Titans will be hard-pressed to hold on at home.

Despite playing at home and riding a two-game winning streak, the Green Bay Packers are 2.5-point underdogs to to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. This should come as little surprise to anyone who saw the Seahawks' 40-7 demolition of the Carolina Panthers in Week 13.

Thomas Rawls exploded in his third game back from injury, racking up 106 rushing yards and two scores on just 15 carries. The Seahawks racked up 240 rushing yards as a team, a great complement to Russell Wilson's 277 yards in the passing game.

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

The Seahawks defense was also excellent, forcing the Panthers into two turnovers and holding them to just 271 yards of total offense. It was a brutally brilliant display from the Seahawks, who are in fine form despite an ugly blip against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week earlier. They've won four of their last five, and will be plenty confident heading into Green Bay.

The Packers might need to win out to make the postseason. They are two games back of the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, who are riding high on a four-game winning streak and play the lowly Chicago Bears in Week 14.

There is a crush of teams fighting for the two NFC wild-card spots, and there are two teams between Green Bay and the No. 6 seed, currently occupied by the Bucs. A snowy, frigid forecast for Sunday could prove advantageous for the Packers, who are used to playing in such conditions, but the Packers can't rely on the weather to play equalizer. Aaron Rodgers has exhorted his teammates to raise their game down the stretch, and so far it seems to be working.

Plenty will be riding on his shoulders Sunday, as he looks to pry apart a Seahawks secondary now without safety Earl Thomas, who suffered a season-ending leg injury against the Panthers.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

But let's get back to Raiders-Chiefs. The Chiefs are three-point favorites at home, and for a team that has won close games in increasingly astounding ways this season, will look to pull off another miracle to beat Derek Carr and the Raiders' high-powered offense.

It's possible that a frozen field at Arrowhead Stadium could make things difficult for Oakland and slow down their vaunted passing attack. NFL Network's Courtney Fallon noted the conditions weren't great on the field Thursday morning: 

The Chiefs were one of the few teams to limit Carr in a 26-10 win early in the season, so there's reason to believe they can do so again at home.

The Chiefs' own offense is fairly mediocre, 15th in the league at 23.4 points per game. They have a fine opportunity against a Raiders defense that has been porous for most of the season, but must be wary of defensive end/linebacker Khalil Mack. Deadspin's Dom Cosentino chronicled his dominance this season:

"

Mack lines up both with his hand on the ground—like a classic defensive end—and as a stand-up linebacker. It’s easy to get confused about exactly what position he plays because he rushes the passer, plays the run, sets the edge, and drops into coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, he has 49 total pressures on 252 pass-rush attempts. That breaks down to nine sacks, four hits, and 36 hurries, and a pass-rush productivity rating of 15.5, second only to Von Miller’s 16.6. But Mack’s been doing his damage even after starting the season in something of a slump, albeit one exacerbated by the number of double- and triple-teams he was seeing. In recent weeks, however, there’s been no stopping him, both as a pass rusher and as a run stopper.

"

Mack has shown the ability to make plays where other members of the Raiders defense often fail to execute. His ability to disrupt Alex Smith's timing with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be key to Oakland picking up a win. Spencer Ware had a big game against the Raiders with 131 rushing yards and a score last time out; he'll be key to taking the teeth out of Oakland's pass rush but could be in for a rougher go of it on his own now that the run-stopping Mack has really hit his stride.

The Chiefs have a strong pass rush of their own, and will need to get to Carr—a legitimate MVP candidate with 24 touchdowns against five interceptions—consistently. On a potentially frozen field, this game could turn on a few wacky plays or an ill-timed turnover.

In what figures to be a close contest, you might look at which team has an edge at the end of the game. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Raiders are the best team in the final three minutes, but look who's right behind them:

The Raiders are on a six-game winning streak and Carr has proven to be ultra-clutch for most of the season. The Chiefs, however, are somehow able to convince the cosmos to align time and time again in close contests.

There's little to separate these two teams, as their records indicate, and few home advantages are better than a packed, passionate Arrowhead Stadium. Though the Chiefs are the slight favorites in this one, look for the Raiders to at least cover the spread, if not pull off the win outright.