Lomachenko vs. Walters: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
He's got to be the best seven-fight pro on the planet; maybe ever. And now Vasyl Lomachenko has a big fight to match his status.
The WBO's 130-pound champion will make the first defense of his newly won crown—wrested five months ago from veteran Rocky Martinez—against rising former featherweight kingpin Nicholas Walters.
The bout will headline a World Championship Boxing show on HBO that will air immediately after the Saturday night replay of last week's light heavyweight duel between Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward.
Lomachenko, 28, turned pro on the heels of perhaps the greatest amateur career in history, stubbed his toe on rugged Orlando Salido in fight No. 2 and has since won five straight title bouts while climbing The Ring pound-for-pound ladder all the way to rung No. 7.
He's a clear favorite to beat the 30-year-old Walters, who whipped veterans Vic Darchinyan and Nonito Donaire at 126 before losing his crown on the scales and heading four pounds north. He struggled to a majority draw—winding up even on two cards, losing on the third—in his weight-class debut against Jason Sosa last December, then hemmed and hawed his way into the showdown with Lomachenko.
Confidence, it seems, is no issue.
"Since he did lose to Salido, he can be as technical all he wants, but I am in the hurt business," Walters said in a recent media conference call (via FightNews.com). "This is a gladiator sport and I fight all of my fights like that. I fight like a gladiator. He can come in with his technical fight on Saturday and I am going to be up for it and put on a helluva show."
The bout serves as the main event in the 2,000th show promoted by evergreen Top Rank boss Bob Arum, and the soon-to-be 85-year-old (he'll celebrate his birthday on Dec. 8) was not shy about using heady words when it came to describing his newest stable star.
"Vasyl Lomachenko is technically the best fighter that I have seen since the early Muhammad Ali," he said (via FightNews.com). "There is nobody that I have seen, and there have been a lot of great technical fighters that I have seen—Alexis Arguello was one, Floyd Mayweather certainly, Manny Pacquiao—but there has been nobody with the skills that Vasyl Lomachenko has."
Date: Saturday, Nov. 26, 2016
Time: HBO's World Championship Boxing starts at 10:35 p.m. ET
Venue: The Chelsea at the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas
Odds: Lomachenko (-455), Walters (+300)
Odds provided by Odds Shark and are correct as of Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET; subject to change.
Rounds 1-3: Setting a Violent Tone
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Walters enters the fight correctly billed as the puncher, and he'll need to step on the gas quickly to avoid being left in the scorecard dust at the fight's outset.
Expect him to try and establish himself, and make Lomachenko uncomfortable by pressing the action and trying to get the champion going backward. He can do so by mixing shots to the body and head, and keeping the Ukrainian on the end of his punches.
Easier said than done, to be sure, but it's mandatory for Walters to start with a flourish.
Score After 3 Rounds: 29-28 Walters
Rounds 4-6: Finding the Sweet Spot
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The problem with having such an aggressive strategy against a guy like Lomachenko is that it's not nearly as simple as it seems.
The Ukrainian won't simply stand there and allow himself to be overwhelmed.
In fact, his ability to use his legs to control range is among the best in the sport. He'll be best served by positioning himself somewhere in the sweet spot between the end of Walters' power shots and the inside where he can be nicked and bruised by elbows and headbutts.
If he can get Walters to reach and lunge, and generally seem uncomfortable, he'll have brought the fight to the place where he can best succeed.
Score After 6 Rounds: 57-57 Even
Rounds 7-9: Taking Complete Control
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No fighter plans on finding himself in a desperate situation against Lomachenko. Nevertheless, slowly but surely, that's where everyone not named Orlando Salido has wound up.
Against Walters, Lomachenko will aim to dominate each exchange by taking his foe out of his comfort zone as a slugger and turning him into an awkward, unsure hunter with a perpetually moving target.
He'll take control in the middle rounds by doubling up on the southpaw jab, sliding and shooting straight left hands. A quick move out of range and back in will precede another volley for which Walters will progressively have fewer and fewer answers.
Score After 9 Rounds: Lomachenko 87-84
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Rounds 10-12: The Finishing Touches
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By the time the double-digit rounds arrive, the pattern will be familiar.
Walters' moments of real success will have become fewer and farther between, while the smaller, less menacing Lomachenko will be the one teeing off and finishing exchanges with flashy shots.
But it won't last forever.
The increasing flow of one-sided punishment will take its toll on Walters, who will grow more fatigued and frustrated before he's finally beaten into submission midway through Round 10.
Final Wrap
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It's an enviable position to be in. Now a two-division champion who's convincingly drubbed a high-profile rival, Lomachenko will presumably not be lacking in options going forward.
He's arguably a top-five pound-for-pound performer, and, given the ambition he's already shown in less than 10 fights as a pro, it's hard to imagine where the boundaries might lie.
A revenge match with Salido would be a competitive barnburner, as would a unification bout with the WBC champ in the division, Francisco Vargas. And there are always new fields to till at 135 or even 140, where he could pit his skill set against the likes of Mikey Garcia, Terence Crawford or, gasp...Manny Pacquiao.
As for Walters, he's an entertaining guy with a big punch, so he'll always have a place. He probably won't fall too far, and he might wind up with a Vargas fight if Lomachenko decides to go elsewhere.
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