What's the Comfort Level for Fantasy Studs Heading into Week 11?
We're definitely getting down to crunch time in the fantasy football world. Week 11 is right around the corner and will kick off when the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers meet on Thursday night.
If you're lucky enough to still be in your league's playoff hunt, this is not the time to make mistakes. There's a good chance your fantasy playoffs are mere weeks away, and there's also a good chance that the wrong roster decision could leave you out of the tournament.
Unfortunately, it's become increasingly difficult to know just which fantasy standouts you can trust. Regular fantasy producers like Spencer Ware (just 71 total yards, three receptions) and Mike Evans (four receptions, 66 yards) played on the disappointing side in Week 11.
Which players should we be comfortable trusting this week? That's what we're going to try to determine today.
For this list, we'll examine players who have been fantasy stars in the past, as well as top-25 positional scoring leaders from this season, according to NFL.com. We'll be looking at difficult situations and challenging matchups and providing a comfort level for each player on our list.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
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While Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson might have gotten off to a slow start to the season, he looked like the legitimate fantasy stud of years past against the New England Patriots in Week 10.
Wilson gashed the Patriots for 348 yards passing with three touchdowns.
The question for Wilson owners is will he repeat his studly performance in Week 11, or will he crash back to earth against a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense?
Pro Football Focus rates Philadelphia second in pass rush and 17th in pass coverage. The Eagles are allowing just 222.4 yards per game through the air, seventh-fewest in the NFL.
Assuming Wilson has regained his mobility, as it appeared he did in Week 10, we don't think Philadelphia's pass rush will pose too significant a threat. In fact, it might even lead to a few more rushing yards, which have been rare for Wilson this season.
We wouldn't expect a performance to match last week's, though. Expect a more efficient Wilson to complement a run-based approach against Philadelphia. Something like the numbers he produced against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago—282 yards passing, two touchdowns, one rushing touchdown—feel more likely.
Of course, most fantasy owners will be happy to take these numbers.
Comfort Level: Down Comforter
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott has gotten off to anything but a slow start in 2016. He's already amassed 1,255 combined rushing and receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. He's also ranked first in RB fantasy scoring by NFL.com.
Looking to slow Elliott this week will be the visiting Baltimore Ravens. While few teams have really slowed the rookie phenom, the Ravens might have a chance.
Baltimore is allowing an NFL-low 71.3 yards per game on the ground, and the team is also rated first in run defense by Pro Football Focus. Just as important, perhaps, is the fact Ravens defenders are motivated by the challenge in front of them.
“I’m sure everybody’s going to count us out that game,” Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith said, per Ryan Mink of the team's official website. “They like to run the ball, we like to stop the run. They’ve got some big-play receivers. We’re going to have our hands full, but we go in and get this victory against them, I think that would kind of validate the last two weeks.”
Based on Elliott's role in the offense and his status as perhaps the top overall back in the league, we're not even going to suggest (or think about suggesting) putting him on the bench. However, don't be too surprised if the Ravens force Elliott into having a merely average day.
Comfort Level: Wool Blanket
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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We already mentioned that regular fantasy standout Mike Evans had a down week against the Chicago Bears in Week 10. Can he bounce back this week against the Kansas City Chiefs?
To be honest, we're not entirely hopeful that he can. While Evans should hold a fair amount of PPR value based on his role as Jameis Winston's favorite target, he'll be going against one of the league's better pass-coverage units.
The Chiefs are currently rated third overall in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus and are allowing just 244.4 yards passing per game.
There's a possibility that Chiefs pass-rusher Justin Houston could make his return from injury this week, which would obviously make life more difficult on Winston.
“If he can get in there and roll, then he’ll get in there and roll. If he can’t, then he can’t," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said, per BJ Kissel of the team's official website.
Even if Winston does find some success against the Chiefs, it may not come via Evans. The Texas A&M product will likely spend much of the game locked up with cornerback Marcus Peters, who is rated 16th among all cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus.
Expect Evens to have a solid day, albeit a potentially underwhelming one.
Comfort Level: Outlet-Store Wool Blanket
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Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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There are a couple of reasons to believe Buccaneers running back Doug Martin will also struggle against the Chiefs defense. For one, Martin returned from a long-lasting hamstring injury last week. Secondly, he'll be facing that same Kansas City defense, which is allowing just 18.7 points per game.
We feel a lot more comfortable about Martin's prospects than we do about Evans', though.
The Chiefs simply aren't as good at combating the run as they are the pass. The team currently allows an average of 121.7 yards per game on the ground and is rated 15th in run defense by Pro Football Focus.
It's also worth noting that Martin—who rushed for more than 1,400 yards in 2015—looked solid in his return against the Bears last week.
He finished that game with 33 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving and a touchdown.
Expect Martin to get back into the swing of things even more this week against the Chiefs. Don't expect a monster outing, as Peyton Barber may still steal carries until the Buccaneers are convinced Martin is 100 percent. However, Martin is a guy you should be able to start with confidence.
Comfort Level: Month-Old Gym Shoes
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi is in the midst of a breakout rushing campaign and a rise to full-fledged fantasy-stud status. He's already racked up two 200-yard performances this season and has 725 yards and six touchdowns on the ground in just eight games and five starts.
He's ranked 10th in fantasy RB scoring by NFL.com.
However, Ajayi is coming off a disappointing—by his new standards, anyway—79-yard, zero-score performance against the San Diego Chargers. Can he bounce back this week against the Los Angeles Rams?
We wouldn't count on it.
The Rams feature one of the league's most dominant defensive fronts, which is rated eighth in run defense by Pro Football Focus. Even if defensive end Robert Quinn cannot make the return from illness this week—NFL Network's Steve Wyche reported he was released from the hospital Tuesday—Ajayi should still face a stiff challenge.
The Rams allow an average of just 19.2 points per game and have only allowed two 100-yard rushers all season.
We doubt Ajayi will become No. 3.
Comfort Level: Day-Old Dress Shoes
Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens
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Wide receiver Mike Wallace disappeared from the ranks of the fantasy elite over the past few years, during forgettable campaigns with the Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings. However, a move to Baltimore has allowed him to return to stud status with a vengeance.
Through nine games, Wallace has produced 43 receptions for 673 yards and four touchdowns. He is averaging 15.7 yards per reception and is ranked 16th in fantasy WR scoring by NFL.com.
When the Ravens visit the Cowboys, though, Wallas will be matching up with a secondary that is rated second in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
Sure, Pittsburgh Steelers wideout Antonio Brown managed to rack up 14 receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown against Dallas last week, but Wallace isn't the all-around receiver Brown is. Wallace is more of a deep threat and if the Cowboys don't let him get behind the coverage, he will likely be in store for a subpar day.
Even the lowly Browns were able to slow Wallace by keeping him in front of defenders. While quarterback Joe Flacco torched the Browns for nearly 300 yards and three scores, Wallace caught just four passes for 59 yards and no touchdowns.
This week could be even more disappointing for Wallace and his fantasy owners.
Comfort Level: Sitting in the Wrong Classroom
Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns
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The play of Cleveland Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor has fallen off a bit in recent weeks, despite still being ranked 11th in WR fantasy scoring on NFL.com. Though he did score a touchdown in Week 9, he hasn't topped the 50-yard mark in either of the past two weeks.
Part of the issue may be that opposing defenses have finally recognized that Pryor is essentially Cleveland's only offensive playmaker. Part of the problem might be uneven play at the quarterback position—rookie starter Cody Kessler was pulled during last week's loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
At least when Kessler has been under center, it's been difficult for guys like Pryor to hit the big play.
“I have to be more accurate with the long ball and be more accurate with getting the ball to the right guy," Kessler recently said, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.
If Pryor is going to get back on track in Week 11, he's going to have to do it against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has generally bullied the Browns since Cleveland's return as an expansion team in 1999. It also seems he is going to have to do it without a lot of downfield opportunities, as Kessler has been reinserted as starter.
The good news here is that Pryor still holds PPR value—he has at least five receptions in each of his last three games. The Steelers, who are rated 18th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus, don't present the direst defensive challenge either.
If the Browns can overcome the mental block of playing their dominant rivals, Pryor should be in store for a strong outing.
Comfort Level: New Christmas Slippers
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
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Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has shown glimpses of being a franchise signal-caller throughout his young NFL career. In 2016, however, he has shown glimpses of being an elite quarterback.
Through nine games, Carr has passed for more than 2,500 yards with 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He holds a passer rating of 99.1 and is ranked seventh in QB fantasy scoring by Pro Football Focus.
Carr is going to face a tough challenge in the Houston Texans defense this week, though. Houston is allowing an average of just 196.8 passing yards per game and is rated fifth in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus.
The Houston defense isn't the real reason we'd be concerned about starting Carr in Week 11, however. Oakland's potential game plan is.
Two weeks ago, the Raiders defeated the Denver Broncos and their vaunted defense by relying on the ground game. Oakland won the game by 10 points, but Carr passed for a mere 184 yards and zero touchdowns.
There's a good chance the Raiders employ a similar strategy this week—Houston is rated just 28th in run defense by Pro Football Focus. While we expect Carr to play a quality game, we have our doubts about his ability to produce a strong fantasy outing.
Comfort Level: Going to the Wrong Job Interview
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