UFC 205 Primer: Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Before UFC 205 on Nov. 12 concludes with its trio of title fights, middleweights Chris Weidman and Yoel Romero will square off for a middleweight matchup rife with championship implications.
Weidman, formerly the division's kingpin, is looking to get back into the win column after suffering the first defeat of his career. He was expected to once again fight for the belt at UFC 199, but injuries changed his course and have placed him face-to-face with Romero.
Romero has never lost inside the Octagon. He has amassed seven victories while exhibiting tremendous grappling ability and otherworldly power. His most recent win, a split decision over Ronaldo Souza, marked only the third time in Romero's career that he failed to knock out his opponent.
Here we break down the battle, taking a look at the areas of the fight where Weidman or Romero holds an advantage, and we examine how those granular matchups will contribute to determining the fight's outcome.
Striking
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When we talk about Romero's, striking it only makes sense to start with his power. He hits like a hammer both standing and from top position on the mat.
Romero's game isn't only force, though. FightMetric reveals some impressive statistics, including 54 percent accuracy, 62 percent defense and 3.44 strikes landed per minute. The metrics are somewhat inflated by Romero's ground work, but they are impressive nonetheless.
Weidman appears to be fighting an uphill battle in the striking category when we consider his comparable numbers. He boasts 45 percent accuracy, 53 percent defense and 3.29 connections per minute. Each rate is inferior to Romero's.
While Weidman's numbers are handicapped by a stronger schedule than his opponent, Romero's impressive output, combined with his immense power, earns him the edge here.
Edge: Romero
Grappling
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Grappling is both men's specialty. Romero is a freestyle Olympic silver medalist, while Weidman is a two-time Division I All-American. Those kinds of credentials are rarely contained inside the same Octagon.
Weidman's grappling has made the more successful transition to mixed martial arts, according to FightMetric. He shoots more, succeeds at a better clip and boasts stronger defense than Romero.
But Romero has come around lately, capitulating to a takedown just once over his last four outings. He is also converted 11 of his last 19 takedowns attempts, and that span encompasses some solid wrestlers.
The credentials favor Romero, but the historic numbers favor Weidman. If not for Weidman's iffy showing against Luke Rockhold, he would be the pick. But on the strength of recent performances, Romero gets a sliver of an edge.
Edge: Romero
Submissions
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Romero has never scored a submission win. According to FightMetric, he has never even attempted a submission as a UFC fighter. If I had to guess, I'd say defeating Weidman via submission isn't in the cards.
But what about the other corner? Weidman has gone seven fights without securing a submission, but we know he is capable. He owns a trio of stoppages in his career, including a pair of impressive chokes inside the Octagon.
While the edge belongs to Weidman, Romero has never been submitted. So even though a Weidman win via submission is a possibility, the fight is far from over should the American gain an advantageous position on the canvas.
Edge: Weidman
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X-Factors
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Weidman's X-Factor: Learning from the Loss
Every time an undefeated fighter loses for the first time, the question becomes: Will the loss cripple his psyche, or will he grow from the experience? That's pertinent for Weidman, who cruised through 13 fights before losing to Luke Rockhold.
If the thrashing turns Weidman hesitant and defensive, he'll be in trouble. If it inspires him to develop and achieve a new peak, then there is little reason to doubt his chances of one day recapturing the middleweight title.
Romero's X-Factor: Cardio
Rockhold beat the cardio out of Weidman, but fighting a full 15 minutes has historically been a greater problem for the heavily muscled Romero. Strangely, though, he's managed to stop four UFC opponents in the third round.
Despite the late-fight finishes, cardio remains a legitimate issue for Romero. He basically forfeited the final round of his fight with Ronaldo Souza, called a timeout against Tim Kennedy and was too exhausted to control certain bodily functions against Derek Brunson.
If Romero isn't competitive in all three rounds, it would decrease his chances of victory. What we've seen from him is concerning, and at age 39, there is little reason to believe improvements are coming.
It's also worth noting that Romero recently served a six-month suspension for failing a drug test. And while his defense was plausible—he blamed a tainted supplement—the result further fuels pessimism toward his cardio in future fights.
Prediction
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This is close to a pick'em fight. The grappling and striking are razor-thin edges for Romero, while Weidman's more sizable advantage in submission work may not factor much into the fight.
Romero's best chance to win is by knockout. Weidman is hittable, and if Romero lands early, the bout could end quickly. But Weidman is durable. He may have lost to Luke Rockhold, but Weidman took 126 strikes before the referee thought he had had enough.
Weidman's best chance to win is to wear out Romero, take him down in the third round and beat on him until the referee or the horn signals the end of the match.
Either scenario is realistic, but the pick here is Weidman. His intelligence, cardio and versatility will earn him the W and put him back on the path to reclaiming his lost title.
Prediction: Weidman def. Romero, TKO, Rd. 3
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