NFL Week 9 Picks: Over-Under Lines and Odds Predictions

The NFL's Week 9 slate is highlighted by a handful of divisional rivalries that are going to have an impact as the earliest of playoff pictures begin to unfold. 

The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos are in a heated race atop the AFC West, but they will have the opportunity to make a huge stride toward winning the division when they face off this week. 

The NFC East has been marked by a cluster of teams with mediocre records after the 6-1 Cowboys. However, either the Philadelphia Eagles or New York Giants will have the change to close that gap when they square off on Sunday.

With the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens meeting up in AFC North action, one of the teams in that division might finally look like a playoff team. With all four teams in the division entering the week on a losing streak, one of those two is guaranteed to get in the win column. 

Here's a look at the latest spreads and totals from Odds Shark, along with a prediction for each outcome.

Matchup	Spread	O/U	ATS and O/U Pick
Atlanta at Tampa Bay	ATL -4	51.5	ATL/U
Dallas at Cleveland	DAL -7	47	DAL/U
Pittsburgh at Baltimore	BAL -3	43	PIT/O
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants	NYG -2.5	43	NYG/O
Detroit at Minnesota	MIN -6	41	DET/O
N.Y. Jets at Miami	MIA -3.5	44	MIA/U
Jacksonville at Kansas City	KC -9	45.5	KC/O
New Orleans at San Francisco	NO -3.5	51	NO/U
Carolina at L.A. Rams	CAR -3	45	LA/U
Tennessee at San Diego	SD -5	47	SD/O
Indianapolis at Green Bay	GB -7	54	GB/U
Denver at Oakland	Even	43.5	OAK/O
Buffalo at Seattle	SEA -7	44	SEA/U

Key Games

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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With the utter collapse of the Carolina Panthers this season, the NFC South has been wide open for a new contender to emerge. Thus far, the Atlanta Falcons appear to be that contender. 

The Falcons have a full-game lead on the pack right now, but a win over the second-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers would guarantee at least a one-game lead over the New Orleans Saints and open up a two-game lead over the Bucs. 

The offense has been the reason for the Falcons' resurgence this season. Just one year after finishing the season ranked 21st in scoring offense, they sit atop the league in that category at 32.8 points per game. 

On the flip side, the Bucs offense has stagnated from where it was last year. Tampa Bay finished 19th in scoring offense last season and is ranked 20th this season.

A lack of skill talent is probably the reason for the decline. Mike Evans is the only receiver who has been a consistent threat. The disparity between he and the rest of the receivers is one of the biggest in the NFL, per Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times:

Even if the other offensive talent steps up for the Bucs this week, their atrocious pass defense could still let them down.

Derek Carr (more on him later) scorched Tampa last week, throwing for more than 500 yards and four touchdowns. 

Carr has earned consideration as a top-five quarterback, but no one is playing better than Matt Ryan right now. He just burned the Packers for 288 yards on an 80 percent completion rate with three touchdowns at home for a nearly perfect passer rating. 

Going on the road might cause a little consternation, but there's no telling just what kind of numbers Ryan will put up against this secondary on the way to making the Falcons' NFC South lead even greater. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

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The AFC North has been a disaster thus far. 

The Steelers are the only winning team in the division with a 4-3 record, and none of the teams in the AFC North won a game in Week 8. (Pittsburgh and Baltimore had a bye.)

That means this divisional contest in Week 9 could swing some momentum toward either team in the race for the division. 

That should be a harbinger for a great matchup, as the Steelers-Ravens rivalry has proved to be one of the closest in the NFL, per Patrick Gleason, the Ravens' public relations director:

Of all of the struggling teams in the division, the Steelers at least have a viable excuse. Injuries have taken hold in Pittsburgh and made it tough to develop any kind of continuity. 

Hope springs eternal, though, and the Steelers have good news on the way. According to head coach Mike Tomlin, the bye week was helpful, and some guys who couldn't have suited up last week are now closer to playing and will continue to be evaluated, per Bob Labriola of the Steelers' official website: 

"

A number of guys who have missed time in recent weeks with injury, like I said, have worked and we’ll continue to work those guys. Like always, we’ll let their reaction to that work be a guide for us. We’ll let the quality of that work be a guide for us in terms of determining their availability in this football game. All could have a chance to play, and we have that mentality regarding their availability.

"

The Steelers' Week 7 injury report sported 11 names, ranging from Ben Roethlisberger and Marcus Gilbert to Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier. 

Getting even some of those 11 on the field should be enough to claim victory in a game against a Baltimore team that is anemic on offense. 

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

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The AFC West showdown between the Broncos and Raiders should be the highlight of any viewing guide for the week. 

Both teams are 6-2 and tied for the division lead, but this game is all about the maturation of Carr. The Raiders have come a long way as a team, but his emergence as one of the top quarterbacks in the league (at least statistically) is a big reason why:

The greatest criticism that one can levy against the Raiders is that they have only beaten bad or average teams. Both of their losses came against the only quality teams they've played in the Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs. 

By extension, the same argument could be made against Carr and his hot start to the season. However, this week will give him the opportunity for a rebuttal.

While the Broncos offense might be struggling (ranked 21st in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings), the defense is still dominant. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders noted the potential historic dominance of the unit:

Still, Carr's numbers against the Broncos have improved each of his past two seasons, and he's even better now:

	G	Comp./Att.	Yards	TD	INT
2014	2	48/83	350	3	3
2015	2	38/68	384	3	1

With Carr elevating his play even higher this season, he's at the point where he gets the benefit of the doubt, even against elite defenses. 

The same can't be said for Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense. In a close game, taking Carr against a top defense at home is better than taking the Denver offense on the road against the Raiders.