NFL1000: Biggest Midseason Surprises and Disappointments

When you scout every NFL player at every position in every game over half a season as Bleacher Report's NFL1000 team does, you come to some early conclusions about the state of play in the league.  

The 2016 season has been pilloried for unexciting play and declining ratings, and while there's some truth to that—turn on the Thursday night games if you have insomnia—defensive football is clearly making a return to form after a decade of gunslinging quarterbacks and rules designed for high-scoring games at the expense of balance.

We've seen more varied defenses, offensive lines less prepared than ever to stop them, overwhelmed quarterbacks and coaches who work to adapt constantly. It's an ever-changing game, which has been noticeable to our crew so far in 2016.

Beyond that, certain players will surprise and disappoint, which is what we focus on here: four players who have impressed beyond our expectations and four who have dropped below where we thought they'd be at the start of the season. The scores for each player are the cumulative scouting scores for the season's first half. We've also included each player's overall position ranking.

All advanced statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Surprise: Jerrell Freeman, ILB, Chicago Bears

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Pass defense: 20.5/25
Run defense: 30.1/35
Pass rush: 10.9/15
Tackling: 12.5/15
Positional value: 6/10
Overall: 80/100
Positional rank: ILB1 (tied with Carolina's Luke Kuechly) 

The Bears spent a lot of money improving their inside linebackers in the offseason, with the thought that Jerrell Freeman, formerly of the Colts, and Danny Trevathan, formerly of the Broncos, would give defensive coordinator Vic Fangio some semblance of the inside presence he had in San Francisco with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman in their glory days. Trevathan has played well when healthy, though he’s currently recovering from a thumb injury, which puts even more pressure on Freeman.

If Freeman is feeling that pressure, it doesn’t show; he may be having his best season overall with 53 solo tackles, 35 total stops and outstanding work in coverage. Through Week 9, Freeman is Pro Football Focus’ top-graded inside linebacker in coverage, and he’s maintained his missile-like quickness both in coverage and when going after running backs in the open field.

Freeman starred at the small University of Mary Hardin-Baylor, spent some time in the CFL, and the Colts finally took a chance on him in 2012. He developed into a Pro Bowl-level player at times, which is why the Bears gave him a three-year, $12 million contract with $6 million guaranteed this offseason. The way he’s playing now, Freeman stands to make that contract look like a bargain.

Disappointment: Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Route-running: 18/25
Hands: 17/25
Yards after catch: 12.6/20
Blocking: 10.7/20
Positional value: 9/10
Overall: 67.3/100
Position rank: WR60

Though the Jaguars finished 5-11 in 2015, the franchise's building process spearheaded by general manager Dave Caldwell and head coach Gus Bradley appeared poised to bear fruit in 2016. The primary reason was the combination of quarterback Blake Bortles and receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.

In 2015, Robinson was especially good, catching 80 passes on 142 targets for 1,400 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. So long as Bortles could become more efficient and cut down on his interceptions, the Bortles-to-Robinson combo appeared to be the league's next elite duo.

To put it mildly, that hasn't happened. Robinson has 39 catches on 77 targets, which puts him on his 2015 reception pace, but he's gotten only 442 yards and four touchdowns out of those catches. He has at times been visibly frustrated with Bortles' glaring inaccuracy, but he's had his own problems, tying for the league lead with seven dropped passes and becoming far less of a factor as a deep receiver.

Incredibly, Robinson has caught just one pass in 16 targets on throws of at least 20 yards in the air, whereas he nabbed 19 deep passes on 46 targets in 2015. This is mostly on Bortles, who has regressed this season, but if Robinson wants to be considered a top-level player at his position, he needs to do more to meet his quarterback in the middle.

Either way, it's not good, and the 2-6 Jaguars are feeling the pressure.

Surprise: Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Route-running: 19.6/25
Hands: 19.4/25
Yards after catch: 12.9/20
Blocking: 12/20
Positional value: 9/10
Overall: 72.9/100
Position rank: WR10

The Cleveland Browns are 0-9. They've gone through a series of injuries that would decimate any team, with six players having thrown at least five passes this season. They're a relative disaster on defense, with several talented players blowing assignments far too often. Right now, the only encouragement for their fans is that they're in line for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft.

One of the few bright spots this season has been the ascent of Terrelle Pryor as a fine No. 1 receiver, a highly surprising outcome. Pryor was a running quarterback at Ohio State, and in college, he caught just three passes for 24 yards and two touchdowns. After the Oakland Raiders selected him in the third round of the 2011 supplemental draft in the wake of his memorabilia scandal, Pryor has completed just 56.3 percent of the passes he's thrown in the NFL.

Oakland traded Pryor to the Seahawks for a seventh-round pick in 2014. After his stint in Seattle, he tried out for several teams, landed small deals with the Chiefs and Bengals and finally cleared waivers for the Browns in June 2015. Had he not landed on a team with problems at the position, Pryor may never have been given the opportunity to excel as a receiver, but the Browns had few options. Still, his one catch for 42 yards in 2015 gave little indication of what would happen in 2016.

At essentially a new position, Pryor has grabbed 46 catches on 76 targets for 579 yards and four touchdowns while playing with the worst quarterback depth chart in the NFL. Size and speed are Pryor's primary attributes, but he's developing a better feel for the route tree and how to get in and out of zones. Pryor's journey has been one of the NFL's most interesting in recent years.

Disappointment: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Accuracy: 17.4/25
Arm: 19.4/25
Under pressure: 11.3/20
Decision-making: 13.6/20
Positional value: 10/10
Overall: 71.7/100
Position rank: QB19

In the second half of the 2015 season, Russell Wilson was the NFL's best quarterback. That's not a subjective opinion; it's a statistical reality. From Week 9 through the Seahawks' exit in the divisional round of the playoffs, Wilson completed 212 passes in 323 attempts for 2,654 yards, 29 touchdowns, five interceptions and a QB rating of 114.5.

Though eight games of the 2016 season, Wilson has completed 178 of 267 passes for 2,094 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Wilson managed to turn things around against the Bills on Monday night with 20 completions in 26 attempts for 282 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. Not earth-shattering stats, but a big improvement over what had been.

Injuries have been a factor—Wilson is dealing with ankle, knee and pectoral issues—but the real problem is an offensive line that does not give him any time in the pocket before enemy defenders set upon him. And because the Seahawks believe they don't need to spend money on their line—Seattle has by far the lowest cap investment in its offensive line, per Over the Cap—the only hope for offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was to construct a passing game in which Wilson threw the ball as quickly as possible.

That strategy had almost completely eliminated Seattle's ability to create explosive plays. Last season, Wilson completed 31 of 75 passes over 20 yards in the air for 957 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. Heading into Monday night's game against the Bills, he had only completed 13 of 23 deep passes for 451 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Buffalo gave up four deep balls in six attempts for 105 yards and both of his touchdowns.

Again, the turnaround against Buffalo was encouraging, but overall, this season has been a disappointment for a guy who was expected to be the NFL's next great quarterback.

Not that this is all Wilson's fault—in fact, most of it isn't. Few quarterbacks could thrive under such constraints, and when he doesn't have the physical ability to leave the pocket and improvise, Wilson is sunk behind the NFL's least experienced offensive line. The strategy is ruining Wilson's season, reducing the effect of potentially explosive weapons such as Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham and turning the offense into a one-dimensional entity that doesn't work even on that one dimension.

"We've been really careful," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll told me after the game about the lack of explosive plays over the previous month. "Really careful in exposing Russ, and he was begging us to let it loose."

Carroll has said his offense will turn the corner soon, and maybe it has. Wilson's injuries won't magically heal themselves, while the offensive line isn't going to wake up and turn into that of the 1976 Raiders. There's no way to get around those limitations: Carroll will have to hope the offense wakes up consistently in the season's second half, as it did in 2015.

Surprise: David Bakhtiari, LT, Green Bay Packers

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Pass protection: 20.4/25
Run-blocking: 19.1/25
Power: 16.4/20
Agility: 17.3/20
Positional value: 8/10
Overall: 81.2/100
Position rank: LT4

As much as Green Bay's offense has struggled at times over the last two seasons, the Packers offensive line has improved over that time, which makes the inefficiencies in the passing game more on head coach Mike McCarthy and (occasionally) on quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

But that line has been one of the league's best in 2016, and left tackle David Bakhtiari has been the point man. In 557 snaps this season, he's allowed two sacks, no quarterback hits and just eight quarterback hurries. Those numbers are especially impressive in an offense where unimaginative route concepts often have Rodgers scrambling around until someone is open.

The most impressive thing about Bakhtiari's game is the progression he's taken to get here. A fourth-round pick out of Colorado in the 2013 draft, he was thrown right into the fire at left tackle in his rookie campaign and allowed 10 sacks, five quarterback hits and 28 quarterback hurries that year. He managed to shave that down to seven sacks allowed in 2014 and just three last season.

Bakhtiari has always been a great athlete—he saw time at tight end in college—but he's now added strength and technique to his athleticism. The result is one of the better blindside blockers in the NFL.

Disappointment: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Inside running: 17.7/25
Outside running: 17.3/25
Receiving: 16.6/20
Blocking: 16.3/20
Positional value: 6/10
Overall: 73.9/100
Position rank: RB15

At first, the marriage of Todd Gurley and the Rams appeared to be a natural, long-term, productive fit. Head coach Jeff Fisher has traditionally preferred to case his offense around the ground game (to a fault), and when Gurley came out of the 2015 draft, the only question about his prospects in the NFL had to do with his recovery from the torn ACL he suffered in 2014.

Gurley recovered just fine, rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 229 carries as a rookie and adding 21 receptions for 188 yards.

With his rare combination of power, speed, agility and acceleration, Gurley seemed to be the next great NFL back—so good that he could even transcend the Rams' subpar offensive line. The Georgia product caused an amazing 42 missed tackles on his 229 carries in 2015, and when he got to the second and third level, defenders had two ugly choices: let Gurley run over them or by them.

In 2016, Gurley's usage in the Rams' game plan is confounding. Through eight games, he's managed 451 yards on 146 carries. He's scored just three touchdowns and hasn't managed a single 100-yard game this season, whereas he had five such outings in 2015. Even Jeff Fisher admitted on Monday that Gurley isn't getting enough carries. 

Gurley has carried the ball over 20 times in just two games, and Fisher has said that Benny Cunningham is now the team's two-minute back, which explains why Gurley was on the sideline as the clock ran down in Los Angeles' 13-10 loss to Carolina in Week 9.

Fisher cites different defensive fronts as part of the reason for Gurley's struggles, but one could also point to the decision to run him inside when that isn't the strength of the offensive line. It's especially baffling considering how Gurley can be so explosive once he gets outside the tackles. Whatever is going on here, Fisher and the Rams had best adjust quickly before they waste a generational talent.

Surprise: Travis Swanson, C, Detroit Lions

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Pass protection: 17.6/25
Run-blocking: 17.8/25
Power: 16.5/20
Agility: 15.6/20
Positional value: 6/10
Overall: 73.5/100
Position rank: C3

When the Detroit Lions took Travis Swanson out of Arkansas in the third round of the 2014 draft, they knew they were getting a smart leader with great athletic potential. What they put up with during the first two years of his career was a center who had trouble adjusting to the strength and power of NFL defensive tackles.

Swanson would repeatedly try to block bigger men only to get pushed back—sometimes all the way to the quarterback. In addition, he was far from technically exact when run-blocking, especially at the second level. He would overextend and whiff, leaving defenders unblocked to tackle whichever back had the ball. To allow 24 quarterback hurries, as Swanson did in 2015, is a bad number for a center.

However, the difference between the 2014 and 2015 versions of Swanson and the version we're seeing this year is astounding. He has dramatically improved in every facet of his game. Because he's using better lower-body technique, he's able to block with more power and consistency. Because he's reading defenses more adeptly, he's able to better handle stunts and line games. And because he's more efficient in his movement, his hit rate against defenders in the open field has gone up exponentially.

He's a big reason Detroit is contending in the NFC North right now, and he should be commended for the work he's put in.

Disappointment: Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets

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NFL1000 Scores at Midseason

Coverage: 20.4/30
Reaction/recovery: 18.9/30
Slot performance: 16/20
Tackling: 6.4/10
Positional value: 9/10
Overall: 70.7/100
Position rank: CB24

It happens to every cornerback in the NFL, no matter how great he is at his peak. The fast-twitch fibers start to go. The recovery speed isn't what it used to be, even the week before. You start to see more targets, and your coaches start to cheat the safeties over to your side more often. Talk of moving to safety, or the slot, ramps up. You get questions every week about your performance, when the media was once asking you if you were among the best at your position…ever.

When Newsday's Kimberly A. Martin asked Darrelle Revis those hard questions in late October, the former owner of his own island was frank about his professional mortality.

"

My body's breaking down. ...Not in a bad way. I can still play. It's just, I'm breaking down. I'm 31. How many corners are 31 right now in the league? The league's getting younger. I know [Vikings cornerback Terence] Newman's still playing [at 38], which is impressive. But I don't know how he's doing it.

"

It's a shocking admission, and unfortunately, the stats match up. In 302 pass-defense snaps this season, Revis has allowed 33 catches on 48 targets for 424 yards, one touchdown and an opponent passer rating of 103.1. None of these numbers would make sense from the Revis we had seen in prior years, but as he gets lit up by the receivers he used to shut down, it's time to wonder if this is the end for one of the most impressive careers in recent NFL history.

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.