NFL Picks Week 6: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions
When it comes to the task of picking winners in the NFL, Week 6 doesn't look all that promising for those who are looking to make some painless predictions.
It's a tough week to be in a pick'em league or staring down the odds.
Per Odds Shark, only four of the 15 games feature teams favored by more than a touchdown, and one of those is the shaky Arizona Cardinals (2-3) over the New York Jets (1-4). The undefeated Minnesota Vikings are off, so no help there, and the Cleveland Browns (0-5) actually have a winnable game on the road against the middling Tennessee Titans, who are 2-16 at home dating back to the beginning of the 2014 season.
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Still, there are some seemingly safe picks, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Miami Dolphins and the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.
If you're looking for some guidance from experts around the web—namely, the ones who are doing the best job of picking games, according to NFLPickWatch.com—as well as the latest spreads and over/unders, check out the table below.
| Denver Broncos (-3.5) at San Diego Chargers | 45.5 | Broncos | Broncos | Chargers | Broncos | Broncos 72% |
| Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7) | 43.5 | Titans | Titans | Browns | Titans | Titans 65% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 47 | Bears | Jaguars | Bears | Jaguars | Bears 62% |
| Carolina Panthers (-3) at New Orleans Saints | 53 | Saints | Saints | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers 58% |
| Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Washington | 44.5 | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles/Washington 50% |
| Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-8.5) | 47 | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots 70% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins | 47.5 | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers 75% |
| Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3) | 43.5 | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions 59% |
| San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) | 44.5 | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills 81% |
| Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3) | 43.5 | Ravens | Giants | Giants | Ravens | Giants 55% |
| Kansas City Chiefs (even) at Oakland Raiders (even) | 46.5 | Chiefs | Raiders | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs 57% |
| Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) | 46 | Falcons | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks 68% |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4) | 47.5 | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers 69% |
| Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3) | 46.5 | Texans | Texans | Colts | Texans | Texans 67% |
| New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) | 46.5 | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals 71% |
Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, October 13, at noon ET. All expert picks are straight up and come courtesy of ESPN.com, SB Nation, Fox Sports, CBSSports.com and FiveThirtyEight.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
If NFL teams could request when they get their bye weeks, the San Diego Chargers would probably ask for a respite in Week 6.
The Bolts are 1-4 and have raised snatching defeat from the jaws of victory to something of a twisted art form. Whether it's blown kicks, fumbles or defensive meltdowns, the Chargers seem to come up with a new way of blowing fourth-quarter leads and losing close games every week. They are defying the odds, just not the way anyone in San Diego would hope.
Yahoo Sports' Frank Schwab (h/t Wall Street Journal's Michael Salfino) has more on how the Chargers have made the improbable possible:
"The Chargers just keep finding ways to lose games they have no business losing. According to win probabilities at pro-football-reference.com, the Chargers lost two games in which they had a 99.9 percent win probability. They reached that mark early in the fourth quarter in Week 1 at the Kansas City Chiefs, when they had the ball and a 27-10 lead. It happened again in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints when Drew Brees threw a third-down incompletion in the fourth quarter with the Chargers leading 34-21. You shouldn't blow one of those games in your lifetime, much less twice in four weeks. But San Diego did.
"
There is no relief for the downtrodden, as the Chargers host their division rival and defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on short rest after losing 34-31 to another AFC West foe in the Oakland Raiders in Week 5. The Broncos are coming off a loss to the Atlanta Falcons, so there is some hope here for Chargers fans, but it's going to be a tough going regardless for a team that is likely both mentally and physically depleted.
Injuries are at least partially to blame for the Chargers' woes, as they've lost the likes of Keenan Allen, Manti Te'o, Danny Woodhead and Jason Verrett to season-ending injured reserve.
Quarterback Philip Rivers keeps soldiering on, with 11 touchdowns against three picks this year, but he has to feel like he's trapped in that classic cartoon bit where he's driving idly along and his car just peels away around him and leaves him with a steering wheel.
The Broncos boast one of the best defenses in the league, and cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib are going to make life tough for Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman. Rivers can expect some pressure as Von Miller (6.5 sacks) and Co. attack a jumbled, oft-injured offensive line.
Even though Melvin Gordon can't stop scoring touchdowns, he's still averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season and hasn't cracked 100 yards rushing since Week 2. Gordon's fumbles have also been instrumental in each of the Chargers' last two defeats.
The Chargers' banged-up defense could find it tough to contain the Broncos, who are getting good mileage out of first-year starter Trevor Siemian at QB and could be getting a boost on the ground from emerging rookie running back Devontae Booker, who impressed against Atlanta.
The Broncos might end up saving the Chargers from another humiliating meltdown by getting out in front early and keeping it that way, but if the Bolts blow another lead, don't be shocked.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
This matchup between NFC East rivals is the diciest pick of the week, at least according to the number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight, who give each team a 50 percent chance of pulling out a victory.
Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has made the leap to the NFL look easy, but he finally faced some adversity and turned the ball over in a 24-23 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 5. He still completed over 75 percent of his passes and threw for two scores, so it's not like Eagles fans have much to worry about, although one has to wonder when (if) he'll really take his lumps.
With left tackle Lane Johnson suspended, Wentz could face some extra pressure this weekend with rookie tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai now tasked with protecting his blind side. The Redskins are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to taking down the quarterback (11 sacks), so this is a matchup they should try to exploit.
The Eagles could try to blunt a pass rush by throwing in more option plays for Wentz or giving more carries to a deep corps of running backs that includes Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood.
If you're looking for a reason to trust the Eagles to get back to their winning ways, keep tabs on Washington tight end Jordan Reed. The team announced Wednesday that Reed is being evaluated for concussion symptoms experienced on Tuesday. Reed has 33 receptions for 316 yards and two touchdowns on the year and is a key cog in Washington's offense.
"Hopefully it's not too serious, hopefully it's just protocol," DeSean Jackson said, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's JP Finlay. "Hopefully we'll have him for Sunday. We definitely need him, he's a big part of what we do."
Though Washington can turn to veteran Vernon Davis in his absence, losing out on Reed will make life much more difficult for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who relies on him. The Eagles are tied for fifth in the league with 14 sacks this year, are sixth in the league in passing yards allowed per game and are ninth in passer rating against, per ESPN.com.
Washington barely has a running game to speak of, so if the Eagles can keep Cousins busy and prevent him from getting the ball out to Jackson or Jamison Crowder, they could pull out a win in this tough road game.
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