The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 17

If we bat 1.000 this week, we can finish over .500 for the year in our point-spread selections for the season. In what has been a poor season for Vegas and online books, because the public has been able to lean on big brands and fade small-brand teams, sharps have also fallen short of their goals.

We'll try to get above water by giving you guys the best information, be it a recent trend or just a power-ranking perspective on every game this week. With no Thursday Night Football this week, this is our first week with 16 predictions.

Our lines come from OddsShark, while our trends come from TeamRankings.com. We also use the Massey Rating and FiveThirtyEight to find a consensus on where the numbers say a point spread should be based on power rankings.

Record ATS total: 100-115-3

Record ATS last week: 8-7

Dallas vs. Philadelphia

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Best home line: Philadelphia -3.5

Best away line: Dallas +4

Dallas has nothing to play for in the NFC, which means they may bench quarterback Dak Prescott in this game, but that isn't the heart and soul of their team. Their heart and soul is their offensive line, and if they bench Prescott and their line, that takes up six of their available seven inactive spots for the whole game.

As underdogs this season, the Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com, with the best margin of victory and margin of victory against the spread of anyone in the league. The Philadelphia Eagles are more than field-goal favorites against the best team in the NFC, despite the fact that they've won just two of their last nine games and just one of their last six.

Dallas should be a 3.5-point favorite according to the Massey Rating, while the Cowboys are projected 4.5-point favorites per FiveThirtyEight's numbers. Prescott isn't an elite quarterback, and elite quarterbacks are worth about six points of value above replacement in the NFL.

That means this line is still valuable, even if Prescott doesn't take a single snap on Sunday. Dallas has a week of rest after the regular season anyway, as they've already clinched the top seed in the NFC.

The pick: Dallas +4

Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

Best home line: Pittsburgh -5.5

Best away line: Cleveland +7

Earlier this year, on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers were eight-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers have nothing to play for, as they have the third seed in the AFC locked up, but they can't rest all of their starters when the NFL only allows for seven players to be inactive from the 53-man roster on game day.

If that game were in Pittsburgh, the line would have been 14 points. Even without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger playing full time, the Steelers should only be docked about six points from a point-spread perspective. On paper, this should be a eight-point line.

FiveThirtyEight even goes as far as to say that this should be a 17.5-point line, so a deduction of six points means there is a six-point value on Pittsburgh. The Massey Rating says the Steelers should be 20.5-point favorites, so if Roethlisberger does sit, there is a nine-point value.

The Cleveland Browns are an NFL worst 3-12 against the spread this season, per TeamRankings.com. At best, the Browns can finish 4-12 against the spread in 2016. You have to go back to the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles, who finished 3-12-1, to find a team that has finished worse.

Per TeamRankings.com's database, no team has lost more than 12 games against the spread since the 2007 Baltimore Ravens, and the Browns have a chance to match their 3-13 record. They are a historically bad team against the spread. Don't trust them, especially off of a win.

Cleveland hasn't had a winning record against the spread coming off of a win since the 2009 season. Think before you act.

The pick: Pittsburgh -5.5

Buffalo vs. New York Jets

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Best home line: New York Jets +3.5

Best away line: Buffalo -3.5

E.J. Manuel is more than a field-goal favorite on the road. In an NFL game. In a game in 2016.

Books know that you don't want to put money on the New York Jets. That's how they're going to make money off the public in this game. 

Don't fall for the trap.

The pick: New York Jets +3.5

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Best home line: Indianapolis -4.5

Best away line: Jacksonville +5

The Jacksonville Jaguars did just win last weekend against a talented Tennessee Titans team, but since the 2014 season kicked off, they are just 2-21 on the road, with 17 games decided by more than 4.5 points. Chances are, the Jaguars are going to lose this road game by five or more points, just like they have 74 percent of the time over the last three seasons.

Since 2014, the Jaguars are 4-6 against the spread following a win, while the Indianapolis Colts are 13-7 against the spread following a loss, per TeamRankings.com. Don't get caught up in the moment. Think about the long-term trends here.

The Massey Rating says there's a point of value on Indianapolis in this spot, while FiveThirtyEight says there are 5.5 points of value. Either way, just about every trend imaginable, other than the interim head coach narrative, says to lean on the Colts here.

The pick: Indianapolis -4.5

New England vs. Miami

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Best home line: Miami +10.5

Best away line: New England -9

Since Ryan Tannehill left against the Arizona Cardinals with a knee injury, Miami Dolphins backup quarterback Matt Moore has been able to seal three straight victories, clinching the Dolphins a playoff berth as a wild-card team. Over those games, he's thrown six touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Are we sure the Dolphins didn't improve at quarterback? Both the New England Patriots and the Dolphins are battling for seeding heading into this game, with the Patriots fighting for the top overall spot in the AFC, while Miami and Kansas City are neck and neck in the race for the fifth seed in the conference.

Both teams have something to play for, but the Patriots are amazing 10.5-point favorites on the road, meaning that the squad would likely be a 17-point favorite at home against an in-division team that is on track for the playoffs and may be improving.

The Massey Rating says there are four points of value on Miami. FiveThirtyEight says there are six points of value on Miami. It doesn't get much better than that.

For reference, the Dolphins were 5.5-point underdogs on the road in New England in Week 2 against Jimmy Garoppolo. If you reflect that line, they should be a half-point favorite in this game, if Garoppolo were starting. That means this line gives Tom Brady 11 points of value, when even the best quarterbacks in the league are only valued at about six points.

The pick: Miami +10.5

Chicago vs. Minnesota

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

Best home line: Minnesota -6

Best away line: Chicago +7

Though the Minnesota Vikings are on a disappointing 2-8 run after starting the season off 5-0, they are quietly crushing expectations as a home team. According to TeamRankings.com, they are 5-2 against the spread at home this season, the second-best mark behind the 6-2 New England Patriots, and they finished 7-2 last season, just behind the 8-2 Carolina Panthers.

Now, there's been a quarterback change and a stadium change during that time, so there isn't a direct link there, but the numbers play out correctly. The Chicago Bears are also 2-5 against the spread on the road this season, while only the Philadelphia Eagles have more losses on the road than them.

Minnesota's defense allows 19 points a game at home. The Chicago Bears have only scored 107 points on the road this season, the third-worst mark and less than a touchdown away from being the worst team in the league in this category.

The pick: Minnesota -6

Houston vs Tennessee

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Best home line: Tennessee -3

Best away line: Houston +3

Matt Cassel, after posting a 65.3 passer rating against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, is a favorite in an NFL game against a team with a clinched playoff spot. Something doesn't add up here.

Even with some rested starters, these Titans, under Cassel, aren't an equal team to these Houston Texans on a neutral field, and that's what this line is telling you. Even with a healthy quarterback in Marcus Mariota, the Massey Rating leans toward Houston on this line.

In the last three seasons, Cassel's squads are 2-10 straight up when he throws more than one pass in a game. Don't play yourself.

The pick: Houston +3

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati

Sam Craft/Associated Press

Best home line: Cincinnati PK

Best away line: Baltimore +1.5

The Baltimore Ravens have just won two of their last nine games against the spread when they've been a road favorite, per TeamRankings.com. That means in Baltimore, this game would be a six-point line.

That sounds right on paper, but the Ravens have only won by more than six points three times this season, with one game coming against a rushed Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers and another against Cody Kessler, the Cleveland Browns' rookie backup passer.

Per the Massey Rating, the Cincinnati Bengals should be 2.5-point favorites, while FiveThirtyEight claims the Bengals should be two-point favorites. This should be closer to a field-goal game than a pick'em game.

Baltimore is also coming off a day less of rest after playing on Christmas.

The pick: Cincinnati PK

Carolina vs. Tampa Bay

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Best home line: Tampa Bay -4

Best away line: Carolina +5

Since their bye week, the Carolina Panthers are 5-4, which might not sound like much, but juxtaposed to their 1-5 record beforehand, it means enough. Their only losses have come to the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons, who have all clinched playoff berths and combine for a record of 42-17-1.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don't play at a level like the teams of that grouping. Even then, the Panthers have only lost two games by more than five points in their last 11 games. One of those games was when quarterback Cam Newton was benched for Derek Anderson for a play, which resulted in an immediate interception.

The Panthers have a winning record this year against the spread as road underdogs. The Buccaneers have a losing record this year against the spread as home favorites. According to the Massey Rating, there are 3.5 points of value on Carolina here, while there are five points of value per FiveThirtyEight.

After being massively overrated to start the season, the Panthers are somehow the forgotten child in the NFC South in Week 17.

The pick: Carolina +5

New York Giants vs. Washington

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Best home line: Washington -7.5

Best away line: New York Giants +9

The New York Giants have nothing to play for this week, as the Dallas Cowboys have locked up the NFC East title and the Giants have locked up the top wild-card seed in the NFC. If there is any team that should be resting their starters, it should be the Giants, but with their in-division rival Washington Redskins still alive in the playoff hunt, they may take this opportunity to turn on Drake levels of petty.

There are teams who have said they weren't going to rest starters and did after a drive. There are teams who have said they were going to rest starters and didn't. Don't trust NFL coaches when hot microphones are around.

If the Giants do rest their starters, only a handful of players will be on the inactive list, and few players outside of quarterbacks even register one point of value in gambling. Even then, a top quarterback like a Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers is only worth about six points, and this is a nine-point line in favor of Washington.

To get value on that side of the line with Washington, you have to assume:

1. Eli Manning, who is fourth in the NFL in interceptions this season, is playing like an elite quarterback right now.
2. Washington is equal to New York on a neutral field when both teams are playing their starters.

It's hard to agree with either of those statements, even if the Redskins have a win in a one-game sample this year.

The pick: New York Giants +9

New Orleans vs. Atlanta

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Best home line: Atlanta -6.5

Best away line: New Orleans +7.5

You can find the over-under on this game at 56.5 points, a full touchdown higher than any other game this week. This game appears to be a shootout.

The Atlanta Falcons have the best offensive, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, while they have just the 27th defense in the NFL. The New Orleans Saints rank fifth in offense and 29th in defense.

In a shootout, you want to go with the underdog, and that couldn't be any more true than when a team is a multi-score underdog in a projected shootout, in a dome, against an in-division rival. Per TeamRankings.com, the New Orleans Saints are 5-1-1 this year against the spread as a road team, too, and only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have more wins against the spread as a road dog this season.

The pick: New Orleans +7.5

Arizona vs Los Angeles

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Best home line: Los Angeles +7

Best away line: Arizona -6

The Arizona Cardinals are 2-5 on the road this season and are facing their first back-to-back road trip on less than a usual week of rest. Against the spread, they are also 2-5, per TeamRankings.com.

The Los Angeles Rams have been nothing short of horrible after the first month or so of the season, but they are 1-2-1 against the spread as home underdogs this season. If this game were in Arizona, based on a seven-point line, that means that the Cardinals would be 13-point favorites. That's too high.

With this line being at the key number of seven, it's worth it to take the number. The Massey Rating says there are 2.5 points of value here, while FiveThirtyEight says there are 3.5 points of value. Pull the trigger.

The pick: Los Angeles +7

Oakland vs. Denver

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Best home line: Denver PK

Best away line: Oakland +1.5

In games that Matt McGloin has thrown for 15 or more passes in his NFL career, the Oakland Raiders have a 1-9 record. With Raiders quarterback Derek Carr going down with a broken leg in Week 16, Oakland will have to start McGloin for the remainder of the season.

The Raiders are somehow a pick'em candidate on the road, despite that fact. The Broncos are 4-1 as underdogs at home over the last two years, per TeamRankings.com.

The pick: Denver PK

Seattle vs. San Francisco

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Best home line: San Francisco +10.5

Best away line: Seattle -9.5

The Seattle Seahawks need to win to keep their hopes of a first-round bye alive. The San Francisco 49ers haven't won a single game this year against non-Los Angeles Rams teams. That's a collision course.

At home this year, the 49ers are just 1-6 against the spread, only above the 1-7 Cleveland Browns, per TeamRankings.com. Overall, San Francisco is 3-11-1 against the spread this season, again only above the 3-12 Browns.

FiveThirtyEight's numbers say that the Seahawks should be 10.5-point favorites on the road, meaning that they are nearly two-touchdowns better than the 49ers on a neutral field. The Massey Rating takes it another step by claiming that Seattle should be a 12.5-point favorite, meaning that the Seahawks are three scores better on a neutral field.

Vegas just can't figure out two teams this year: San Francisco and Cleveland. If you're just coming around to this now, you can't make up for all your lost ground this season, but one week of positive results is a start to dig yourself out of this hole.

The pick: Seattle -9.5

Kansas City vs. San Diego

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Best home line: San Diego +6

Best away line: Kansas City -5.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have won 21 of their last 25 regular season games. Of those 21 wins, 16 of them came by more than 16 points.

While the San Diego Chargers have essentially given up on the season, after choking and having the cloud of relocation hang over the franchise once more, the Chiefs are staying energized by designing plays to breakout rookie Tyreek Hill and defensive tackle Dontari Poe.

Kansas City is 11-6 against the spread on the road over the last two years and 5-2 this season, per TeamRankings.com. San Diego hasn't had a tangible home-field advantage in three years. Go with the safe bet.

The pick: Kansas City -5.5

Green Bay vs. Detroit

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Best home line: Detroit +3.5

Best away line: Green Bay -3

How are the Detroit Lions going to stop Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers, who leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, is going up against a Detroit defense that has allowed 72.94 percent of passes turn into completions this season, the worst mark in the NFL.

The difference between the 32nd-ranked Lions in that statistic and the 31st team in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys, is about the different between the Cowboys and 13th-ranked San Francisco 49ers. They can't stop anything through the air, and Rodgers has been on fire lately.

In the last six weeks combined, which have included three road trips, Rodgers has thrown zero interceptions while tallying up 14 touchdowns. In the last 10 weeks combined, Rodgers has thrown three interceptions while tallying up 26 touchdowns.

The Packers simply haven't won by fewer than three points since before Thanksgiving, and this game will be played on New Year's Day. When Green Bay is hot, especially as shot road favorite, you shouldn't get in their way.

Both teams are fighting not only for their playoff lives, depending on if the Washington Redskins do or do not beat the New York Giants this week, before Sunday Night Football, but this game will also decide the NFC North title.

The pick: Green Bay -3