Fantasy Football Week 15: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace. 

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through to gain an edge. For example, the San Diego Chargers' Melvin Gordon appears unlikely to play this week, per Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune. With Gordon's rich usage unavailable, we appreciate the upside and reasonable pricing of Kenneth Farrow.

Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 15, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Michael Floyd's Release by Cardinals Adds Upside for J.J. Nelson

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The Arizona Cardinals released receiver Michael Floyd after he was charged with a DUI on Monday, per the team's Twitter feed.

Floyd was inefficient and ineffective this season, as Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke shares. 

"

Wide receivers with 425+ routes but less than 450 yards this year: Nelson Agholor, Jermaine Kearse, Phillip Dorsett and Michael Floyd.

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 14, 2016"

No matter how unproductive Floyd was, he played on 70.5 percent of his team's offensive snaps this season and regularly topped 80 percent snap participation, per Pro Football Focus. Regarding the market share of Arizona's passing game, Floyd was consuming 13.5 percent of the team's targets, third behind Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson.

With John Brown ailing and Floyd off the roster, there is a window of opportunity for speedster J.J. Nelson—a player who rates in the 99^th percentile in the 40-yard dash among positional draft prospects since 1999, per MockDraftable.

Nelson reeled off a 52-yard rushing touchdown on a reverse in Week 14 and hauled in a short score for his second multi-touchdown game of the campaign. With a touchdown of at least 42 yards in consecutive games and his rare speed in a Bruce Arians offense that loves to push the ball downfield, Nelson delivers valuable upside and costs just $3,900 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel this week.

The Cardinals face the New Orleans Saints in a game with a point total hovering around 50 points, per OddsShark. The Saints have allowed the fifth-most points per drive this season and the seventh-most yards per completion, evidence we should appreciate Nelson's upside as a big-play threat this week.  

Green Bay's James Starks in Concussion Protocol

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The Green Bay Packers simply haven't found success in the running game. That could even be an understatement, as the Packers are 28^th in the league in rushing (excluding quarterback yardage).

It now appears tailback James Starks could miss Week 15 with a concussion, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky. Demovsky reported Starks is in the league's protocol after the running back left Week 14's win over the Seattle Seahawks early.

Because of Starks' injury, versatile weapon Ty Montgomery played on 50.8 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 14, per Pro Football Focus.

Now firmly a tailback in both usage and preparation, Montgomery brings unique receiving skills to the field and could provide rare value in daily fantasy this week given he's eligible at receiver on both DraftKings ($4,800) and FanDuel ($5,000).

The Chicago Bears have ceded 100.4 rushing yards per game over the past five weeks, 10^th-most in the NFL over this sample. With the potential to consume a valuable share of rushing duties on early downs and unique receiving upside on longer down-and-distance scenarios, Montgomery is an intriguing investment this week.

Farrow Time: Melvin Gordon Unlikely to Play Against Raiders

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As the week progresses, it's becoming clear we won't see breakout tailback Melvin Gordon on the field for the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, per Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune 

Gordon's absence is a significant sting for mangers in traditional fantasy leagues, but daily fantasy investors can still find value in the scenario with the ascension of Kenneth Farrow. 

Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests the team could turn to a platoon of sorts with Farrow and Ronnie Hillman. We're not buying Hillman as a significant role player, however, as he averaged just 1.5 yards before initial contact per rush and only 1.28 yards after initial contact per rush in a forgettable stint with the Minnesota Vikings this season.

The platoon talk should only deflate Farrow's ownership in daily fantasy markets, while Fantasy Labs is projecting the back will earn 16.7 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders. This projection rates seventh-highest at the position this week. Predictive models respect Farrow's upside in a game that has one of the highest implied point totals of the slate, per OddsShark.

Matt Forte a Game-Time Decision with Knee Injury

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After New York Jets veteran workhorse Matt Forte bowed out of Week 14's win over the San Francisco 49ers with a knee injury, Bilal Powell enjoyed a career outing that included 34 touches, 179 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

An MRI revealed Forte has a torn meniscus, per ESPN's Rich Cimini. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reports Forte is considered a game-time decision for Saturday night's division tilt with the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are one of just seven teams to have allowed at least 100 yards per game to running backs this season. Miami has yielded a generous 4.4 yards per carry and 2.51 yards before initial contact per rush to tailbacks, confirming them as an attractive matchup for ground games.

Powell is a gifted receiving talent who rated seventh among backs last season in yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus. With Forte's uncertainty on a team out of contention, Powell could thrive as a scrimmage star with a heavy workload. He offers a high fantasy ceiling at reasonable pricing in daily fantasy competition this week.

Kirk Cousins Offers a Rare Fantasy Ceiling Against Carolina

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No one is averaging more yards than Kirk Cousins over the past six weeks, as the Washington Redskins' gunslinger has netted 318.2 passing yards per game since Week 9.

Cousins is accomplishing the rare feat of combining volume with efficiency. Though the two metrics often work in an inverse relationship, Cousins is leading the NFL in QBR (87.6) and yardage since Week 9.

The Carolina Panthers have yielded the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on ESPN's scoring key this season, suggesting Cousins is in a fine spot to produce strong statistics on Monday night.

Predictive metrics also support Cousins' upside, as Las Vegas has the Redskins positioned with an implied team total of 28.5 points as home favorites in a game with a total above 50 points, per OddsShark. Translated from the betting lexicon, this means Washington has the second-highest projected point total among all NFL teams (only the Atlanta Falcons have a higher team total).

Fantasy Labs' projection models also adore Cousins, as he boasts the highest potential ceiling using DraftKings' scoring key this week at a rich 32.2 points. We also find tight end Jordan Reed with the highest ceiling at his position at 23.9 points on Fantasy Labs, which suggests stacking this duo could prove rewarding.

We also identify wideout Jamison Crowder as an ideal investment, as the Panthers struggle in defending the slot. His $5,400 price point on DraftKings opens a three-player stack with Cousins and Reed.

Stacking with Denver's Passing Game Offers Contrarian Upside

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Trevor Siemian doesn't often inspire interest as a fantasy asset. Without much brand appeal as a big-game commodity, the market might overlook the Denver Broncos' signal-caller as a fine contrarian play in tournaments this week.

We use the term "contrarian" because Siemian will likely have low ownership rates this week, so he can differentiate your lineup from the competition's. Siemian is also an angle for upside—he's enjoying a volume-drive production pattern of late. 

Siemian has averaged 40.5 passes per game since Week 9, fourth-most in the league. Over this stretch, only Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and the Washington Redskins' Kirk Cousins are averaging more than Siemian's 310.75 passing yards per game. He's also marrying efficiency with his volume, as he's averaged 7.67 yards per attempt over this recent sample, higher than that of Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, to name some notable production peers.

The Broncos will face the Patriots, who have proved respectable on defense, but they aren't particularly stingy in regards to fantasy allowance to quarterbacks. New England has ceded the 12^th-most fantasy points per game to enemy arms this season in ESPN leagues.

Fueling Siemian's production is his reliable tandem of veteran wideouts. Fantasy Labs is a respected daily fantasy platform that produces models to help frame the potential outcome spectrums for players. Fantasy Labs affords Emmanuel Sanders an awesome ceiling of 30.8 fantasy points on DraftKings—fifth-highest in the NFL among wideouts this week. Demaryius Thomas received a comparably rich peak of 30.6, sixth-highest among receivers on the slate.

Thomas has consumed a team-high 31.1 percent of the team's targets since Week 9, while Sanders' share sits at 30.5 percent over this stretch. For some league-wide context, Thomas' share ranks second in the NFL over this sample and Sanders' ranks fourth.

Stacking this Denver passing offense in tournaments will surely offer differentiation, and the metrics support potentially rewarding upside.

Tennessee's Rishard Matthews Due for Bounce-Back Performance

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The Denver Broncos' secondary shuts down every receiving corps it faces. The Broncos have yielded just 101.9 yards per game to wideouts this season. That rate is 37.6 percent lower than the league average (163.5).

It's reasonable to consider Tennessee Titans receiver Rishard Matthews' ugly one-catch outing in Week 14 against Denver was an outlier, rather than a foreboding fantasy trend. 

Over a larger sample, Matthews has been a borderline WR1 for the Titans. He hauled in 69.2 percent of his targets for seven scores and 489 yards in eight games from Week 5 to Week 13. Marcus Mariota enjoyed a robust passer rating of 138.5 when throwing to Matthews over this successful span.

The Titans face a much friendlier fantasy climate this week in Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team on the other end of the spectrum from Denver in defending wideouts. The Chiefs have ceded 192.7 yards per game to receivers this season, the most in the NFL and 89 percent more than the Broncos' stingy clip. 

We'll want to identify savings options at wideout with such a rich offering of feature backs on the market. Investors would be wise to recognize Matthews' reasonable price point this week, as he's just $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel. It's a strong possibility Matthews will reach, and even exceed, his value in this plus matchup.

Data such as target share, drive rates, yardage allowance and fantasy production sourced from an ESPN database.