Fantasy Football Week 12: Takeaways from Sunday's Action
We’re here to discuss the most meaningful performances and fantasy football trends that emerged from Week 12 in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers' Colin Kaepernick is emerging as a surefire QB1 after producing yet another awesome batch of offensive numbers in a loss to the Miami Dolphins in South Florida on Sunday. We are also witnessing a shift in stardom in the receiving ranks in New Orleans.
We detail these scenarios as well as several other meaningful moments from Week 12 in this appraisal of the fantasy football marketplace. As always, please feel free to add your thoughts and questions in the comments below.
Derek Carr Injures Finger but Still Delivers in the Final Frame
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The Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr has a flare for the dramatic this season. The Raiders' star signal-caller has produced five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, becoming the first quarterback in team history to do so, per Elias via ESPN Stats & Info.
The Raiders held a sizable lead for much of the game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, but a late surge from the Panthers saw Carr driving for the game-winning field goal in the final minutes. The win clinched the team's first winning season since 2002, ending the longest streak of non-winning seasons in the NFL, again per ESPN Stats & Info.
The most impressive element might be the fact Carr endured a gruesome injury to the pinky on his throwing hand. The oddly bent pink only kept Carr out for one series, however, as he returned with a glove and produced nice downfield results.
Carr completed 11 of 18 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown and a pick after returning to the game. Impressively, his average pass traveled 9.1 yards past the line of scrimmage after his injury, compared to just 5.1 before leaving the game.
The Oakland signal-caller enjoys an inviting schedule in the fantasy playoffs, with a Week 15 meeting with the San Diego Chargers—a team he lit up for 317 yards and two scores in Week 5—and with the Indianapolis Colts' soft secondary in Week 16. With the team likely chasing a bye in the playoffs late into the campaign, we can expect to see Carr and his clutch skill set on the field for those pivotal matchups.
New England's Rob Gronkowski Injures Back in Win over the Jets
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The New England Patriots' superstar tight end has a long injury history thanks to such a fast and physical style of play. Targeted just twice and limited to seven snaps in Sunday's comeback win over the rival New York Jets, per Pro Football Focus, Gronkowski appears to have suffered a back injury in the contest.
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe reports the hulking tight end was noticeably limited in walking around after the game, "Gronkowski walking quite gingerly to the buses. Had to grab the railing to get down some stairs."
Gronkowski has had two back surgeries already, one while at Arizona in 2009 and in the summer of 2013 while a member of the Patriots, per an article from Volin.
The risk of investing in Gronkowski is clear, as his career is littered with stretches of injuries, while the rewards are equally prominent, as he's averaged 25.4 percent more fantasy points per game than any other tight end in ESPN leagues since 2010.
It's interesting to note the success rookie Malcolm Mitchell has enjoyed with Gronkowski ailing over the past two games, as he has hauled in a team-high three touchdowns in the process. We can consider Mitchell a deep-league flex option going forward.
We're still in the initial discovery phase of this injury for Gronkowski, but given his long history of back issues, his owners should prepare for the worst and seek out help from the waiver wire with the likes of the Los Angeles Rams' Lance Kendricks and the Washington Redskins' Vernon Davis (especially with Jordan Reed ailing).
Atlanta's Taylor Gabriel Produces Yet Another Big Game
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A certain wideout for the Atlanta Falcons has five touchdowns over the past four games and at least one score in each contest over the past month. No, his name is not Julio Jones, it's prolific big-play threat Taylor Gabriel, who proves dangerous as a reverse specialist in the running game as well as a deft playmaker in the receiving phase.
With two touchdowns in Sunday's win over the Arizona Cardinals, Gabriel earned the fifth-highest fantasy score at the position on the week and is making his bid as a strong waiver asset. We can find Gabriel floating in fantasy free agency in just over 96 percent of ESPN leagues as of Sunday night.
Gabriel went undrafted out of Abilene Christian in 2014, joining the Cleveland Browns. The Falcons claimed Gabriel off waivers early this September, thus we can confirm the Browns have given the Falcons both Jones and Gabriel.
With game-changing speed—he reportedly ran a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash in draft preparation, per ESPN's Vaughn McClure—Gabriel has become a dynamic weapon despite limited touches and could help as a boom-or-bust commodity in deeper formats going forward.
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Brandin Cooks Isn't Targeted Despite Saints Scoring 49 Points
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A revealing note from ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft embodies Brandin Cooks' uniquely poor showing during the shootout win the New Orleans Saints enjoyed in the Superdome on Sunday. Cockcroft shares, "Nine different Saints players have scored at least five fantasy points today and three have 20-plus. Brandin Cooks has zero targets."
In fact, it's the first game in Cooks' career he's been held without a single reception or fantasy point. It's a troubling sign to see Cooks shut out as his team scored 49 points, the most of the entire Week 12 slate in the NFL.
Cooks is still a valuable option, but he's become a touchdown-or-bust asset, as he has averaged a robust 17.2 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring in the five games he's scored at least one touchdown this season and just 3.3 points in the six games he's been held out of the end zone.
The good news is that Cooks leads the Saints with 14.4 yards per catch and has hauled in an impressive 68 percent of his targets. The bad news is somewhat obvious, as Cooks isn't required for the team to produce prolific numbers.
Cooks' investors simply must bear the variance of his production pattern, as this boom-or-bust WR2 is essentially more like DeSean Jackson than Antonio Brown in that he'll rely on big plays and surges in usage to deliver big numbers.
Michael Thomas Emerging as Saints' Most Bankable Receiver
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We've discussed how variant Brandin Cooks' production pattern has proven this season, as the New Orleans Saints' speedster is uniquely dependent on scoring touchdowns to return fantasy value. We should also delve into just how steady rookie Michael Thomas has proven in comparison, as he's delivered at least five fantasy points in ESPN leagues in all but one game this season.
It's telling to note Thomas leads the Saints with 83 targets this season, good for a nearly 19 percent of the team's passing game. Since Week 7, Thomas leads the team with a nearly 22 percent share of the targets and has 174 more yards than any teammate over this span.
Thomas leads the rookie class with seven touchdowns and has produced at least 40 yards in all but one game this season. As a top target of Drew Brees and with the Saints enjoying a strong finishing schedule, Thomas is a potential building block for title runs in fantasy leagues this winter.
Cameron Brate Remains a Borderline TE1 for the Stretch Run
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A holding penalty on offensive tackle Demar Dotson negated a touchdown for Tampa Bay Bucs tight end Cameron Brate in the team's rousing home win over the Seattle Seahawks.
A touchdown would have vaulted Brate's respectable line of four receptions for 49 yards to an impressive top-three fantasy score at the shallow position. While we clearly can't change the outcome, it's vital to note Brate leads the Bucs with five red-zone targets and three touchdowns from this range since Week 5.
At an entirely shallow position and with injury afflicting the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Brate is a fine option down the stretch with the Bucs earning two meetings with the New Orleans Saints' soft defense in the heart of the fantasy playoffs.
Jonathan Stewart Emerging as Solid RB2 Commodity
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After suffering their seventh loss in Week 12, the Carolina Panthers' playoff hopes are in serious peril. If there is a positive takeaway from their recent play, it would be the fact tailback Jonathan Stewart scored twice in Oakland on Sunday against the Raiders and has now tallied seven touchdowns over his past six games. With the scoring run, "J-Stew" has regained lost luster as a fantasy commodity.
Stewart was limited as a fantasy asset last season thanks to an utter lack of touchdown production with quarterback Cam Newton and fullback Mike Tolbert vulturing so many scores at the goal line. Now that he's the team's key option in close, Stewart is a quietly valuable producer on an otherwise struggling Panthers offense.
Next week against the Seattle Seahawks could prove challenging, but subsequent inviting meetings with the San Diego Chargers, Washington Redskins and Atlanta Falcons could serve to support a strong finish for Stewart and his fantasy investors.
Mike Evans Cements Elite Status in Win over Seattle
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The Tampa Bay Bucs defended home field as underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12. The Bucs tallied just 14 points in the victory, but a stout defensive performance secured the win.
The key to their offensive success was the brilliant play of third-year superstar Mike Evans, as the wideout produced 104 yards and two scores for the second-highest fantasy total of the week at the position in ESPN leagues. Evans even beat vaunted cover corner Richard Sherman for a 23-yard score in the first quarter on a perfect parabola from Jameis Winston.
Evans led all receivers in fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues, and the performance earned him 1,020 yards on the season, becoming just the fourth receiver in NFL history—joining Randy Moss, A.J. Green and John Jefferson—per ESPN Stats & Info.
Already a pivotal part of the playoff-bound fantasy rosters, Evans could drive title runs given Tampa faces the New Orleans Saints' soft secondary twice in the thick of the fantasy playoffs. It's all but certain Evans will be a first-round fixture in fantasy drafts next summer.
Sammy Watkins Revives Big-Play Rapport in Return to Action
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From a study conducted by the author for ESPN this summer, we learn the Buffalo Bills' Sammy Watkins adds an awesome vertical element missing from the team's offensive arsenal. The Clemson product paced all wideouts in fantasy points on throws of at least 10 yards downfield last season. Watkins actually dominated the field, leading the position by 16 percent on hauls beyond 10 yards.
Making his return in Week 12 from an extended absence due to his recurrent foot injury, Watkins averaged an awesome 26.7 yards on three catches in the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It's clear Tyrod Taylor and Watkins enjoy rewarding downfield chemistry, and the team isn't afraid to dial up deep shots to their big-play weapon. With a visit to Oakland up next, it's worth mentioning the Raiders have yielded the fourth-most yards per game (185.3) to receivers this season.
Given his long absence from the field, Watkins is available in over 40 percent of ESPN leagues and merits top waiver priority heading into Week 13.
The Chiefs' Tyreek Hill Continues His Big-Play Ways in Week 12
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Much like the Atlanta Falcons' Taylor Gabriel, the Kansas City Chiefs' Tyreek Hill is a young speedster scoring touchdowns in a variety of ways this season.
On Sunday night against the Denver Broncos, Hill delivered three scores, one from a kick return, one as a receiver and the other on a three-yard running play. Hill secured his third touchdown at the conclusion of regulation against Denver in dramatic fashion, helping to force overtime in the eventual victory.
Hill now has seven touchdowns on the season and is enjoying an uptick usage with Jeremy Maclin sidelined, as he's second only to Travis Kelce in targets on the team since Week 9. ESPN's Adam Teicher reports Hill blazed a 40-yard dash in just 4.24 seconds in draft preparation.
Also like Gabriel, it's difficult to trust Hill outside of deeper leagues since he's so reliant on big plays and unique usage, but he's certainly emerged as a playmaker for a team in dire need of such production.
Colin Kaepernick Earns Top Fantasy Score Among Quarterbacks
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Chip Kelly's offense is often derided as too simplistic and reliant on pace, but for fantasy purposes it sure has proven successful for the statistics of his signal-callers. From Nick Foles' awesome efficiency in Philly and now with Colin Kaepernick posting big numbers for the San Francisco 49ers, it's a decidedly fantasy-friendly scheme for the position.
In a close loss to the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, Kaepernick produced 32 fantasy points in ESPN leagues, tying Drew Brees for the top score at the position this week.
Since assuming starting duties in Week 6, Kaepernick has averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues, the seventh-highest clip over this stretch. Over this starting sample, including his season-high 113 rushing yards on Sunday, Kaepernick is 15th among all players in rushing yards and while leading the quarterback position by 102 yards over this sample.
A visit to Chicago next week against the Bears' depleted defense could again prove productive for Kaepernick. With such an awesome clip of rushing production, we find a nice spectrum of high floor and slate-shifting ceiling for the 49ers' signal-caller. You can find Kaepernick available in free agency in well over 70 percent of ESPN leagues as of Sunday night.
Data such as target share, historical fantasy production and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.
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