Fantasy Football Week 10: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through in order to gain an edge. For example, the New England Patriots might get talented tailback Dion Lewis back this week. While he has serious competition for touches, we can acquire Lewis at minimum pricing—an ideal reality for his fantasy value if he's active this Sunday.

We also detail several notable injuries and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 10, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

New England's Dion Lewis Could Make Debut on Sunday

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The New England Patriots' backfield has been productive this season. Since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5, receiving back James White has averaged 13 fantasy points in points-per-reception leagues, ranking 25th among backs over this sample.

The team's bruising early-down back, LeGarrette Blount, is tied for the league lead with nine rushing touchdowns and is one of just three NFL backs averaging at least 20 carries per game.

Even with these impressive production precedents in place, we are still excited to see the versatile skill set of tailback Dion Lewis. On the mend from multiple knee surgeries this past offseason, we could see Lewis finally make his season debut.

The shifty Pitt product is reportedly looking good in practice this week—per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss—and could return to action for Week 10's tilt with the Seattle Seahawks.

So why would we be excited if the team already claims two productive backs? For one, Lewis is found at the pricing floor on DraftKings and is comparably affordable on FanDuel. Lewis averaged 16.1 fantasy points in ESPN PPR formats last year in an injury-shortened 2015 season, fifth-most at the position.

An elite New England offense could gain another weapon, while Lewis is an intriguing tournament option at punt pricing if he's deemed active for this meeting of marquee contenders.

Coaching Staff Promises C.J. Prosise to See Increased Workload

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The Seattle Seahawks simply can't get their ground game going. The team's backfield ranks 29th in the NFL in both total rushing yards with just 540 and yards per carry with only 3.48 per attempt.

It's not surprising, then, to hear the coaching staff once again talking about increased usage for talented rookie running back C.J. Prosise. The Notre Dame product was a proficient receiver at the college level and led the Seahawks in receiving a few weeks ago in the Superdome.

Liz Mathews, a Seahawks reporter for 710 ESPN Seattle, relays Pete Carroll is again talking up Prosise's potential to earn more touches this week. Early-down bruiser Thomas Rawls isn't ready to return this week, while Christine Michael has been stalling with inefficient production lately.

Even if we don't see a sizable uptick in rushing usage for Prosise against the New England Patriots this week, it's worth noting he could produce via the pass. ESPN's Mike Clay notes the Seahawks actually have the fifth pass-heaviest offense in the league when adjusting for game flow.

This signals some potential as a receiver for Prosise if he's actually going to see the field much more, as Carroll purports. We don't advise using Prosise in cash games, but at such cheap pricing on both major daily fantasy markets, we can consider him a viable pay-down asset in tournaments.

Doug Martin Returns to Practice

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen several lead tailbacks suffer serious injuries this season. This trend began with Doug Martin suffering a significant hamstring injury in Week 2, but it now appears we could see the elusive back return this Sunday against the Chicago Bears.

Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times reports, "Martin is back at practice today for first time since injuring hamstring in Week 2."

Martin's talent is undeniable, as he led all NFL backs in elusive rating last season—a metric that quantifies missed tackles forced per touch—on Pro Football Focus. Martin also averaged the ninth-most fantasy points per game in ESPN formats last season.

The Bucs have dedicated to the run in most games this season, averaging 27.75 rushes per game, seventh-most in the league. Given his enduring injury, Martin's price is deflated on both markets, as he's found at $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel.

If Martin isn't able to return this week, we should note rookie Peyton Barber is just $3,900 on DraftKings and could prove low-owned in a feature role. 

With Tampa Bay afforded a 59 percent win probability factor in a game with a healthy implied point total hovering around 46 points across most books, per Odds Shark, Martin could prove productive and profitable in daily fantasy competition this week.

Spencer Ware on the Mend, Jeremy Maclin Is Ailing

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The Kansas City Chiefs have truly missed Spencer Ware. The gifted dual-threat back ranks fourth among backs with a robust 117.7 yards from scrimmage per game. Ware missed Week 9 with a concussion suffered in Week 8, and the team's backfield struggled in is absence.

The good news is Ware has passed the league's concussion protocol, according to BJ Kissel of the team's website. With Ware back as a full participant in practice and ready to assume the majority of meaningful touches, we like him as a contrarian tournament commodity in daily fantasy this week against the Carolina Panthers.

We find the Panthers have allowed 44.6 receiving yards and nearly six receptions per game to tailbacks this season. This is relevant since Ware is fifth among backs with 44.7 receiving yards per game this season. Found at reasonable pricing on both markets, Ware is an interesting pivot from the elite chalk options at the position.

Kissel also notes Jeremy Maclin is ailing with a groin injury. Reports suggest Maclin could prove doubtful this week against the Panthers. With Maclin's team-leading target share possibly off the field, this only heightens the hype for Ware's return to action.

Terrelle Pryor No Longer on Injury List

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For those considering playing in Thursday night tournaments, shares of the Cleveland Browns' Terrelle Pryor are appealing.

For one, Fantasy Labs reports Pryor has been removed from the injury list after weeks of dealing with a balky hamstring. This means we can expect a full complement of routes and targets for the talented former quarterback and now productive wideout.

Pryor has consumed a rewarding 25.6 percent of the Browns' targets this season, a rate that ranks 10th in the league. This has led to steady fantasy results, as he's 16th in fantasy points per game among wideouts in ESPN leagues.

With potentially low ownership as fantasy investors avoid this Thursday night matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, we actually find upside in stock of the receiver. The Ravens have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers in ESPN leagues and the second-most touchdowns per game to receivers.

This is a fine week to pay up at running back, so finding affordable receivers with Pryor's substantial usage pattern is a strong avenue in DFS play this week. 

Carlos Hyde Remains Limited with Lingering Shoulder Injury

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The San Francisco 49ers' Carlos Hyde has an undeniably troubling injury history. This season, he's dealing with a lingering shoulder injury that has kept him from fully practicing, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.

The 49ers are committed to the run under head coach Chip Kelly, as they rank fourth in the NFL with 29.6 attempts per game, resulting in 124.1 yards per game. Such a bountiful batch of rushes suggests we should target the lead back on this roster whenever possible.

With Hyde still wearing the blue jersey in practice, which indicates his noncontact status given the injury, it's unclear if we'll see him play against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday.

If Hyde does sit, we advise investing in DuJuan Harris, as he's just $4,100 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel.

Harris produced over 24 fantasy points on DraftKings last week thanks to 15 touches and 142 yards from scrimmage. With a precedent for statistical success and the team's reliance on the run, Harris could prove valuable if Hyde sits. If Hyde does play, we envision some tournament appeal given the same potential for impressive usage.

Paying for Elite Backs Is Wise This Week

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Each week sees a unique marketplace develop in daily fantasy football. Some slates offer a full palate of ideal receiver investments in the middle tier of pricing, while others demand we pay a premium at the position.

The composition of each positional market is important to understand each week in NFL DFS. With several key superstars in prime positions, this week is best for paying up at running back.  

Even if he's the "chalk," as in a truly popular commodity, the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson is in the best position of any skill player in Week 10. With running back pricing proving more palatable than the upper tier of receivers, we advise having heavy shares of Johnson this Sunday.

Johnson faces the San Francisco 49ers, a team that has ceded 32 percent more rushing yards per game to backs than the next-worst run defense. Johnson is averaging a league-best 139 yards from scrimmage per game and is third in the NFL with 23.8 touches per game. 

We also identify the San Diego Chargers' Melvin Gordon as an ideal investment; the second-year breakout back has netted 84.4 percent of the team's rushing attempts since Week 2. This is the highest market share of a rushing game in the league over that span, while his target share of San Diego's passing game is a robust 13.6 percent since Week 2, seventh-highest in the league. 

We can also consider Gordon leads the league with 50 touches in the red zone this season, 15 more than any other player. If you can find affordable ways to fill your receiver spots, such as the Cardinals' J.J. Nelson or the Browns' Corey Coleman, paying up in the backfield is prudent. 

If you prefer to save some coin for at least one superstar receiver, maybe pairing one of Johnson or Gordon with the Philadelphia Eagles' Darren Sproles, who has 15 targets and 28 carries over the past two games, or the Jacksonville Jaguars' Chris Ivory, who is likely to top 15 touches this week, is a wise way to afford the cost certainty of these stud tailbacks. 

Data such as target shares, defensive allowance rates and scrimmage production sourced from an ESPN database.