Fantasy Football Week 9: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

We seek to leverage information into our daily fantasy football lineups each week. The news cycle in the NFL churns out a stream of updates. As DFS managers, we are tasked with sifting through the news in order to identify the meaningful and actionable angles. 

The Indianapolis Colts' T.Y. Hilton is ailing with a hamstring injury, which means touchdown magnet Donte Moncrief could thrive as the team's top target. With modest pricing across major DFS platforms, we discuss and identify Moncrief's value this week in Lambeau Field. 

We touch on this scenario and several other key nuggets influencing fantasy football in Week 9. Join us in detailing notable news and trends from around the NFL as they pertain to the DFS market in Week 9.

As always, please feel free to share your thoughts and questions for the week ahead in the comments below.

Charcandrick West Could Be an Ideal Building Block in Week 9

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star reports Chiefs coach Andy Reid hasn't ruled out Spencer Ware despite the tailback still being in the league's concussion protocol process.

We find some intriguing data from a former NFL doctor on Twitter, however, as Dr. David Chao suggests some foreboding evidence exists for Ware's availability:

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In recent years, over half of concussed players do not return for the following week. https://t.co/suMdqf15nT

— David J. Chao, MD (@ProFootballDoc) November 2, 2016 "

Ware has been prolific in place of Jamaal Charles, who went on injured reserve with a knee injury that wouldn't heal enough for him to return to form. Ware ranks fifth in the NFL in yards from scrimmage per game (117.67) and is fourth in receiving yardage per game among backs (44.7).

The Chiefs have averaged seven targets to their backfield per game this season and a healthy rate of 7.94 yards per attempt to their backs this season, second only to the Atlanta Falcons.

If Ware is inactive, we can expect Charcandrick West to dominate touches and provide real yardage upside as the substitute feature back against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that the Titans backfield overwhelmed in Week 8.

Given the uncertainty with Ware, we find West practically priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel. Along with the Denver Broncos' Devontae Booker, we can envision investing in West in order to build an affordable and formidable fantasy backfield in daily fantasy competition this week.

Travis Benjamin a Game-Time Decision for Week 9

Associated Press

Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network reports the San Diego Chargers' Travis Benjamin is dealing with a sprained PCL in his knee:

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#Chargers WR Travis Benjamin, dealing with a grade-2 PCL sprain, was told no surgery necessary at this point. Rest/rehab. We’ll see on Sun.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 2, 2016"

Benjamin leads the Bolts with 7.25 targets per game and has been targeted on 23.7 percent of his routes this season. That's the highest on the team among receivers with at least two games this season, so his absence would be significant if he's ruled out.

The Chargers' opponent this week, the Tennessee Titans, rank 26th in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus. This means we find some real upside in the likes of wideout Tyrell Williams, who leads the Chargers in receiving yards per game (63.6) and enjoys the highest average of air yards per target on the team (12.1).

We'll need to wait for a final decision on Benjamin's status later in the week, but we're fading him even if he's active given the ailment. Instead, we'll focus on reasonably priced shares of Williams.

Cleveland's Corey Coleman Likely to Return Against Dallas

Associated Press

While the sample size is small, the Cleveland Browns' Corey Coleman tied for the seventh-most fantasy points per game among receivers in ESPN leagues through the first two weeks of the season. He broke his hand in a two-touchdown performance in Week 2 and has been sidelined since.

Scott Petrak of the Elyria Chronicle-Telegram reports the talented rookie from Baylor is practicing in limited fashion. That's a good sign Coleman is on the path to playing against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com reports the Browns' top receiver Terrelle Pryor didn't practice Wednesday because of a lingering hamstring injury. This is troubling since Pryor has been dealing with this hamstring ailment for multiple weeks now.

Even if Pryor is active, daily fantasy managers should have real interest in Coleman, who is priced reasonably at $4,500 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel.

With the Cowboys favored by a touchdown across most books in a game with a healthy point total just shy of 50, per Odds Shark, the Browns' game script could trend pass-happy if they trail throughout.

This rich point climate could lead to volume for Coleman. We already know the rookie is a big-play threat given the early-season sample and the fact he led the FBS in receiving scores with 20 touchdowns last season.

T.Y. Hilton Noncommittal About Playing Against Green Bay

Associated Press

T.Y. Hilton has been stellar this season for the Indianapolis Colts. The speedy wideout ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (709) and sixth in receptions (46).

Yet with Hilton leaving for a series in Week 8 with a hamstring injury, he seems to be dealing with lingering repercussions from the injury. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star reports Hilton isn't sure he'll play Sunday against the Green Bay Packers:

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T.Y. Hilton earlier today was reluctant to commit to playing on Sunday at Green Bay. Injured his hamstring early vs Chiefs.

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) November 2, 2016"

Hilton's absence would prove substantial for the Colts, as they rely on their passing game to move the ball. Specialist site Inside Injuries believes Hilton is in a precarious situation based on the nature of his injury:

"

"TY Hilton is a high injury risk..& hamstring injuries to WRs are devastating..can't explode off line of scrimmage"-Dr. A of @InsideInjuries

— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) November 3, 2016"

We already liked Hilton's receiving peer Donte Moncrief as a fantasy investment this week, as he's hauled in seven touchdowns on 73 targets from Andrew Luck since the start of last season.

Hilton has also caught seven scores in that span but on 143 targets. With such a rich scoring rate (9.5 percent touchdown clip) and Hilton being limited and possibly even sidelined, Moncrief becomes a foundation piece for both cash and tournament lineups.

Devontae Booker Practicing and Poised for a Big Game

Associated Press

The Denver Broncos' talented rookie running back Devontae Booker has averaged 6.5 red-zone touches over the past two games, the second-highest clip in the NFL over this stretch.

Mike Klis of 9News reports Booker practiced Wednesday, which makes him likely to suit up against the Oakland Raiders Sunday. With such a rich usage pattern as the team's feature back with C.J. Anderson on injured reserve, Booker is an ideal building block for daily fantasy football competition this weekend.

Booker consumed 76 percent of the Broncos' designed rushes in Week 8 and enjoyed a target share of 17.6 percent. Such a voluminous opportunity rate favorably compares to the rates we see for the Tennessee Titans' DeMarco Murray and the Pittsburgh Steelers' Le'Veon Bell. The inviting element, then, is that we find Booker priced well below these other bell-cow backs.

Considering the Raiders have allowed 113.6 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (fourth-most in the league) and 4.86 yards per rush to backs (most in the AFC), the blend of matchup and opportunity rates is quite appealing.

At $6,400 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel, Booker is available at a discount from the elite tier at the position without sacrificing a high floor or slate-shifting ceiling in the process.

San Francisco's Carlos Hyde on Path to Playing

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Targeting the New Orleans Saints' suspect defense can prove profitable for fantasy investors. With San Francisco's Carlos Hyde "on track to return" from a shoulder injury, according to Cam Inman of the Bay Area News Group, the talented tailback could be the key commodity to acquire from the 49ers.

The Saints have ceded 98.9 rushing yards per game to opposing backs and a generous 4.41 yards per carry. New Orleans' rush defense rates 21st on Pro Football Focus, and the team has yielded a touchdown on 27.6 percent of opposing drives, fourth-highest in the NFL.

Hyde has averaged four red-zone touches per game this season when active, second only to the San Diego Chargers' Melvin Gordon, who leads the league in touchdowns with 10.

With an opponent that coughs up touchdowns with regularity and one of the most rewarding opportunity rates in the league in the red zone, Hyde is a fine daily fantasy investment for this choice matchup.

Green Bay's Versatile Ty Montgomery Returns to Practice

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The Green Bay Packers host the Indianapolis Colts in a game with an implied point total of 54 points across most books—highest of the entire Week 9 slate, per Odds Shark.

This means we want to find affordable paths to getting skill players in what could be a valuable shootout. One key angle to consider would be investing in the Packers' Ty Montgomery, who has carved out a versatile role in the backfield.

Montgomery missed Week 8 with kidney issues related to sickle cell trait, but his return to practice this week signals a potential return to action, per Ryan Wood of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. The report also notes Montgomery is closer to returning than tailback James Starks, who has missed several games with a knee injury.

For some context detailing Montgomery's success in this role, in two appearances since Week 6 he's averaged 115 yards from scrimmage and 10 receptions per game. His per-game scrimmage production rates 11th overall in the NFL since Week 6 and sits third among receivers.

The interesting additive to Montgomery's fantasy profile is that he's listed as a receiver on DraftKings ($5,800) and a tailback on FanDuel ($6,500). With DraftKings offering a full point per reception, we admire his increased value as a receiver who could net as many as 15 touches in a hybrid rushing and receiving role for the Packers.

Data such as targets, targets per route and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.