Fantasy Football Week 9: Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

We seek to commodify information in daily fantasy football. The news cycle in the NFL consistently churns out a stream of updates. As daily fantasy investors, we are then tasked with sifting through the news in order to identify the ones that are meaningful and actionable.

For instance, there are potential shifts in the pecking orders for the Philadelphia Eagles’ and New Orleans Saints’ respective backfield depth charts, so we must investigate before investing this week. 

We also find some intriguing values cropping up at a shallow tight end position, as fantasy icon Antonio Gates of the San Diego Chargers is enjoying an under-the-radar revival.

Join us in detailing notable news and trends from around the NFL as they pertain to the DFS market in Week 9. As always, please feel free to share your thoughts and questions for the week ahead in the comments below.

Monitor Ty Montgomery’s Status for Sunday’s Inviting Matchup

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Only the New York Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr. and the Cincinnati Bengals’ A.J. Green have averaged more yards from scrimmage than the Green Bay Packers’ Ty Montgomery among players eligible at receiver in the NFL since Week 6.

With Montgomery consuming a unique hybrid role out of the backfield in Weeks 6 and 7, he tallied 20 receptions and 12 carries en route to 115 total yards per game over this successful sample.

The troubling news, however, is “Monty” missed Week 8 against the Atlanta Falcons with a kidney issue related to sickle cell trait, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky.

This is clearly an important health concern for Montgomery and the Packers to monitor, but Demovsky reports, “Doctors told him (Montgomery) it isn't career threatening and he even hopes to play this week against the Colts.”

If Montgomery is fully cleared by the medical staff and does suit up this week, we’d have immense interest in him as a daily fantasy option given his rewarding role from the backfield for Green Bay.

Found at just $5,800 on DraftKings’ points-per-reception scoring model and for $6,500 on FanDuel, Montgomery offers an affordable way to get into this impressive potential shootout if he’s active.

Tim Hightower Rising in New Orleans Saints Backfield

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Seattle Seahawks defensive end Cliff Avril stripped the New Orleans Saints’ Mark Ingram of the ball midway through the first quarter in Week 8. Ingram was also stripped of his status as the clear lead back for the Saints in the process, as he didn’t net another touch in the contest.

In his place, veteran understudy Tim Hightower tallied 27 touches in the team’s tight win. ESPN’s Mike Triplett reports coach Sean Payton intends to continue to ride Hightower going forward, while also getting Ingram involved.

This news is a bit murky, as a good deal of early-week coaching blurbs tend to prove. Coaches don’t aspire to tip their hand in regards to specific usage this early into the NFL week, but it’s clear there is a shift in trust underway in New Orleans.

The reason this is relevant for daily fantasy purposes is the fact the Saints play the San Francisco 49ers this week, a team that has ceded the most rushing yards per game in the league. In fact, the 49ers have allowed 25 percent more yards per game to backs than any other team in the league this season.

We wouldn’t approach this backfield in cash games in DFS, as we want more certainty in regards to snaps and touches in that format. We are interested, however, in tournament shares of Hightower at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $6,100 on FanDuel. With the pricing margin in play between the two markets, we prefer the risk/reward ratio on DraftKings for this choice matchup.

Fantasy Legend Antonio Gates in a Nice Spot This Week

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We’ve already discussed how the Atlanta Falcons’ Austin Hooper qualifies as a punt play at a thin and fickle tight end position this week. For just a bit more imaginary coin on both fantasy markets, we can acquire the San Diego Chargers’ Canton-bound Antonio Gates.

Gates leads all NFL tight ends with 25 targets since Week 6 and subsequently leads the Chargers in target share with 21.6 percent of Philip Rivers’ attempts over this stretch. With a target on 27.8 percent of his routes over this three-game sample, Gates has surely reassumed a leading share of routes and targets over talented rookie Hunter Henry. 

This Sunday, the Chargers host the Tennessee Titans—a team that has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points in ESPN leagues and fourth-most yards per game to tight ends this season. 

At just $3,000 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel, we truly appreciate the stronger value Gates offers on the DraftKings. The position is distinctly thinned by another massive six-team bye this week, so Gates could be a nice angle for pursuing the rare combination of cost certainty and savings.

Donte Moncrief Positioned to Produce in Week 9

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The cross-conference matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Green Bay Packers is home to the highest implied point total of the entire slate at a robust 54 points across several books, according to Odds Shark. 

Such an impressive point total suggests Vegas is estimating a potential shootout could ensue between these talented passing offenses.

With the Colts’ T.Y. Hilton hauling in just one of his six targets in Week 8 after suffering a hamstring injury, the team’s reporter Kevin Bowen was left to ponder if the injury negatively impacted the star receiver's production potential in the contest. 

While we expect to see Hilton play this week, it’s telling to note wideout Donte Moncrief has tallied seven receiving touchdowns on just 73 targets from Andrew Luck since the start of last season.

For some context, Hilton has scored on seven of 143 targets from Luck since the start of last season. With such a rich scoring rapport with Luck and with the depleted Green Bay secondary ranked 29th in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus, Moncrief is angled as a premier building block for daily fantasy lineups this Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Take a Committee Backfield Approach Thursday

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The Tampa Bay Bucs are likely to be without tailback Jacquizz Rodgers in Week 9 after he suffered a significant ankle injury at the end of regulation this past Sunday. With this being the third starter to suffer a substantial injury, the team is left with a myriad of lackluster options in rookie Peyton Barber and veterans Mike James and Antone Smith.

Smith had a discouraging late fumble in Week 9, while Barber lacks a professional pedigree. Beat scribe Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times believes the team will employ a committee approach, writing on Twitter, “None of the three really suited to be a primary NFL back.”

Even as all three come at bottom-dollar pricing in daily fantasy, we’re fading this confusing backfield and instead should seek out significant shares of Mike Evans, who leads the NFL in targets per game. The Bucs could trail early and often in this game against a superior offense that leads the league in points per drive, so looking to the passing phase could prove prudent.

In addition to paying up for the elite Evans, cheap shares of tight end Cameron Brate and slot weapon Adam Humphries could prove helpful in deeper tournament fields, as the Bucs could prove pass happy as home dogs in a game with an inspired point total over 50 points, according to Odds Shark.

Atlanta Falcons' Austin Hooper Primed as a Punt Play at Tight End

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Fantasy nerds—you know you are one of us—tend to speak in a specific lexicon. One of these unique words we use in daily fantasy parlance is “punt play,” which refers to completely paying down at a position in an almost dismissive fashion.

This doesn’t suggest we shouldn’t invest energy in finding the best options among the punt tier at each position, as a cheap option like the Atlanta Falcons’ Austin Hooper makes for a fine punt investment at tight end this Thursday based on a number of inviting trends. 

For one, the team’s starting tight end, Jacob Tamme, has already been ruled out with an injury, as D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports Hooper is in line for first-team reps against the Tampa Bay Bucs on Thursday night. 

Tamme has accounted for 11.4 percent of the Falcons’ targets this season, with Hooper netting just four percent. Consolidating this share could lead to a nice night for Hooper, especially as this game has the Falcons positioned as favorites with a lofty implied point total hovering above 50 points, per Odds Shark.

Atlanta leads the NFL with 2.77 points per drive, while the Bucs just ceded over 500 yards in the air to the Raiders. Found at the pricing floor—as in the lowest possible price—on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Hooper is a fine punt play for those playing in tournaments and cash games that start Thursday.

Philadelphia Eagles Shifting Darren Sproles to Top of Depth Chart

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According to a revealing report from CSN Philly’s Reuben Frank, the Philadelphia Eagles could formally shift veteran back Darren Sproles into the top spot on their depth chart at running back over Ryan Mathews.

The following quote from coach Doug Pederson from Frank’s piece reveals the thinking behind Sproles dominating the snaps and touches in Week 8 against Dallas: “Darren was playing outstanding, and he was doing some great things out there. So, just wanted to keep Darren in the game.”

The diminutive playmaker was on the field for a season-high 62 snaps and 81.6 percent of the team’s offensive plays in the loss to the rival Dallas Cowboys, per Pro Football Focus. Mathews, meanwhile, was on the field for just eight plays and a season-low 10.5 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, again per PFF.

As Frank uncovers in his piece, “No running back in NFL history has ever reached 100 carries for the first time at 33 or older.”

Already a dynamic receiving threat, Sproles offers compelling upside and value as a daily fantasy asset given he’s priced at just $3,900 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel. Given DraftKings’ scoring model offers a full point per reception, Sproles is an exciting way to save coin at a thin tailback position this week.

Data such as target rates and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.