Fantasy Football Week 7: Weekly Fantasy Trends Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

Another wave of injury-induced erosion is hitting the running back position this week. With names like the Buffalo Bills’ LeSean McCoy proving questionable and the San Francisco 49ers’ Carlos Hyde already ruled out, we explore the intriguing value found in each specific injury scenario at the position.

Will Mike Gillislee thrive if Shady sits? With some mystery surrounding the 49ers depth chart, is Mike Davis or Shaun Draughn the back of choice for fantasy investors this Sunday? We seek solutions for these queries in this DFS breakdown.

The news cycle in the NFL is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through in order to gain an edge. We detail several notable injuries and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football.

Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 7, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Green Bay's Ty Montgomery Offers Unique Upside

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Eddie Lacy of the Green Bay Packers will miss Thursday night’s game against the Chicago Bears thanks to a serious ankle injury, per Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune.

In a report from ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, we also learned that the Packers could employ a unique strategy at tailback given that Lacy and complementary back James Starks are expected to miss the game.

Enter receiver Ty Montgomery, a Stanford product and third-round pick from the 2015 NFL draft who saw significant exposure last week in the backfield with Lacy limited with the aforementioned injury.

From Demovsky’s report: "'Frankly, we need to get Ty the ball,' McCarthy said Monday after reviewing the tape. 'It’s about creating opportunities to get certain players the football.'"

McCarthy goes on to detail Montgomery’s potential position shift, adding immense value to his fantasy profile:

"

He definitely has shown the ability to play running back. He’s spent a lot of time with the running back group the last, I think it was, about four weeks now meeting-wise, protections and so forth. Going no-huddle with him back there (Sunday) night was definitely one of the positive portions of our offensive performance. He did a lot of good things. I thought he did some good things coming out of the backfield. To do the whole thing, that’s what we’re working toward, because any time you can create more flexibility for a playmaker, especially with the state of our running back situation, that’s part of it. It will definitely help us.

"

Montgomery netted eight targets lining up in the backfield last week en route to a team-high 10 receptions. He's at the pricing floor among receivers on DraftKings at $3,000 and at $5,600 on FanDuel, so investors can net Montgomery’s increased usage as a de facto running back with one of their receiver spots in daily lineups.

Tampa's Jacquizz Rodgers Set Up for a Big Game

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The premise coming out of their bye week was that the Tampa Bay Bucs’ Doug Martin could return to action this Sunday after missing multiple games with a serious hamstring injury. After he missed Monday’s practice, however, doubts grew regarding his availability for Week 7. In a report from Scott Smith of the team’s official website site, we learned that Martin suffered a setback at some point during his recovery and doesn’t have a timetable for a return.  

Even though he’s listed at just 5’6”, tailback Jacquizz Rodgers capably handled 30 carries in starting for Tampa in Week 5’s win over the Carolina Panthers. With an inviting matchup against the 49ers this Sunday, Rodgers is an ideal discounted back to build around in daily fantasy.

How generous has San Francisco been to opposing ground games? The 49ers have allowed 149 rushing yards per game to backs this season, 19.1 percent more yards than any other team. 

Destined to start as the workhorse for the Bucs this week, Rodgers can be found for just $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel. Take the savings on Rodgers in cash games, allowing for heavy allocation to elite skill players.

For another solid savings angle, particularly on DraftKings’ points-per-reception model, slot receiver Adam Humphries of Tampa is an interesting value now that Vincent Jackson has been placed on injured reserve, according to Smith.

Cameron Meredith Still a Strong Play

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The Packers have ruled out cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins for Week 7 against the Bears, according to Biggs.

The Bears’ Cameron Meredith has risen to rare heights as a high-usage receiver in recent weeks, as he leads the NFL in both targets (27) and receptions (20) and is third in yardage over the past two weeks. Chicago quarterback Brian Hoyer has completed 74.1 percent of his targets for Meredith over the past two games with a rich passer rating of 113.7 targeting the surging wideout.

The Packers have surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards and second-most yards per reception to wideouts this season and now face the division contest without two starting corners.

With a nice matchup against a depleted secondary and league-high usage over the past two weeks, Meredith’s reasonable price on daily fantasy markets proves inviting for those entering contests that begin Thursday night.

LeSean McCoy’s Week 7 Status Questionable with Hamstring Injury

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We saw McCoy survive a scare with a knee injury last week against the 49ers in an epic three-touchdown outing—he had three rushing scores in all of 2015—but now he’s facing a hamstring ailment that clouds his status and availability for Week 7’s meeting with the Miami Dolphins.

Sal Capaccio of WGR 550 Sports Radio reported that coach Rex Ryan isn’t sure of McCoy’s status.

"We’ll see what happens with our medical evaluation," Ryan said. "I’m not going to look into it, but we’ll see how he comes back. We feel good about the guys we do have, but that’s assuming he won’t play, so we’ll see how it goes."

McCoy is second in fantasy points per game among running backs this season in ESPN standard leagues. He is fourth in yards from scrimmage (684) and seventh in the league in touches (125). His absence would prove massive in a matchup with a Miami defense that has ceded the sixth-most yards after initial contact (2.05) in the league. Miami has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the NFL this season, per ESPN.com.

If McCoy sits on Sunday, we'll find real upside and interest in his exciting understudy, Gillislee. The Florida product has flashed big-play potential in limited exposure this season, as he leads all running backs with at least 15 rushes in yards per carry with a robust 6.82 per tote.

The Bills lead the NFL in rushing and are fourth in points per game, so we find intriguing potential in cheap shares of Gillislee if he’s the team’s lead back. You can find Gillislee at the pricing floor on DraftKings at just $3,000 and reasonably priced on FanDuel at $5,300.

Tyler Eifert Could Finally Return for the Bengals

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Even though he missed three games last season and nearly all of a fourth to injuries, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tyler Eifert led all tight ends in touchdowns with 13 last season, just one shy of the overall receiving lead.

Finishing third in fantasy points per game at the position behind only the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski and Washington Redskins' Jordan Reed, Eifert sourced 58 percent of his fantasy production directly from touchdowns.

Eifert returned to practice Wednesday for the first time in two weeks, according to ESPN.com’s Katherine Terrell. If the touchdown maven can return to the field against the Cleveland Browns, several telling stats indicate he could resume his productive ways immediately. 

The Browns have allowed 93.7 yards per game to tight ends this season, 28.3 percent more than any other team. They have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in nine straight games and the most passing touchdowns in the AFC this season. 

Given these generous allowance rates, we find quarterback Andy Dalton and Eifert as an ideal stack in daily fantasy for Week 7.

Injuries to Colts Pass-Catchers Vault T.Y. Hilton to Chalk Status

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The Indianapolis Colts have been missing injured wideout Donte Moncrief for several weeks. The team now faces the absence of tight end Dwayne Allen, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star. Speedster Phillip Dorsett is also ailing, according to Kevin Bowen of the team's official website. 

With Andrew Luck facing a depleted set of skill players in the passing phase, we fervently endorse investing in wideout T.Y. Hilton. The speedy wideout has 63 targets on the season, just one behind Antonio Brown for the league lead.

Hilton’s market share of the team’s passing game is entirely bankable for cash-game usage, as his 27.6 percent target share ranks ninth in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans rank 25th in pass coverage this season, setting up the Colts passing game for a potentially strong outing.

Hilton is reasonably priced at $7,700 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel and makes for a stellar foundation piece in daily fantasy competition.

Carlos Hyde to Miss Week 7 with Injury

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Hyde is due to miss Sunday’s tilt with the Bucs with a shoulder injury, according to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle. 

The 49ers rank second in the league in rushing attempts this season, while the Bucs have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game. This signals that there is potentially some value to be found in the 49ers backfield, but fantasy investors must decide whether Davis or  Draughn is the correct call for this inviting gig.

Given the fact that Davis played 24 snaps last week compared to Draughn’s five, per Pro Football Focus, we consider him the key candidate to assume the valuable majority of early-down touches for the 49ers’ run-heavy offense.

Davis is found at the pricing floor on DraftKings and is an interesting punt play in tournaments given the inviting matchup and potentially rewarding usage opportunity.

Travis Benjamin Looking Iffy for Week 7

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We can find value when injuries create voids in usage. The San Diego Chargers’ Travis Benjamin has consumed a team-high 22.4 percent of targets this season. As for the potential void, Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Benjamin missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury.

Therefore, we might find a valuable void if Benjamin is unavailable for this nice matchup with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons have allowed 2.37 points per drive to opponents this season, third-most in the league. Atlanta has also ceded a touchdown on 28.4 percent of opposing drives, fourth-highest in the league.

Given these substantial allowance rates, we’ll be interested in wideout Tyrell Williams in all formats if Benjamin sits. We’d also want shares of tight end Hunter Henry in this case, especially as Atlanta has allowed the second-most yards to tight ends this season.  

Data such as points per drive, target share and yardage allowances sourced from an ESPN.com database for this piece.