Fantasy Football Week 5: Takeaways from Sunday's Action
Considering the regular season in fantasy football is generally 13 weeks long, we'll be more than 38 percent into the campaign at the conclusion of Monday Night Football. With that much time on the books, the sample size is large enough to start contemplating the enduring impact of specific team and player trends.
For example, the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott is trending towards the second-most rushing yards in NFL history by a rookie running back. This far into his impressive debut season, we can now call Elliott a legitimate threat for Eric Dickerson's 1983 record.
The tight ends in New England are proving they can thrive for a potent Patriots passing game. Similarly, the Atlanta Falcons' tandem at tailback continues to produce in a uniquely dominant backfield. Can their success continue? We explore these topics and more in this comprehensive review of Week 5.
Join us in exploring the revealing news from Week 5 in the NFL. As always, feel free to share your thoughts and questions about the week that was in fantasy football in the comments below.
The Steelers' Sammie Coates Is a Must-Add Asset
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During the NFL RedZone broadcast on Sunday afternoon, we learned the Pittsburgh Steelers' Sammie Coates hit 21.7 miles per hour on his 72-yard touchdown in a win over the New York Jets. This marked the fastest recorded speed of the week, while Coates' fantasy stock is also rapidly on the ascent.
Coates tied for the team-lead with 11 targets in Week 5 en route to six catches, 139 yards and two touchdowns. It was a career outing that now has him positioned as the top fantasy receiver for Week 5 in ESPN leagues.
Coates led the team in targets in Week 4, so a significant usage spike is underway for the Auburn product. It's also worth noting Coates entered the week averaging 19.9 air yards per target on the season—the most on the team, and a sign he's successfully stretching the field in place of the suspended Martavis Bryant.
Coates is a big-play threat on a top offense and has an established rapport with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Owned in fewer than 40 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, Coates is a strong addition in all fantasy formats.
Is a Timeshare Forming in the Denver Backfield?
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The most telling fantasy takeaway from the Denver Broncos' home loss to the Atlanta Falcons might be that rookie Devontae Booker played just 11 fewer snaps than veteran running back C.J. Anderson, per Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus.
Booker looked spry on the day, tallying 59 yards from scrimmage on 10 touches and finishing just three total yards shy of Anderson. In total, Booker produced five fantasy points in ESPN standard leagues compared to Anderson's six.
The sample size isn't very large—this marks a shift in snap share for the backfield—but we should pay attention to Booker's snap count next week. In the meantime, add the rookie as a top handcuff in all fantasy formats.
Patriots' Tandem of Tight Ends Dominates in Week 5
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Tom Brady's return to the New England Patriots helped the team's talented tight ends shine—Martellus Bennett delivered a career-high three touchdowns and Rob Gronkowski topped 100 yards on the day.
Bennett has produced double-digit fantasy points in three of five games. He was a key red-zone weapon for Brady in Week 5, suggesting his stock as a TE1 could endure at such a shallow position.
It was reassuring to see Gronkowski bowl over defenders on an early-game reception (and nearly score). His snap and target numbers were even more encouraging, per Mike Tagliere of Pro Football Focus.
"Rob Gronkowski played 66 of 81 snaps today, and led all tight ends in yards per target (15.6). He's back. #Patriots
— Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL) October 9, 2016"
As we learned from NFL.com's Matt Harmon, the team relied heavily on two-tight end sets on Sunday. That could spell steady usage and exposure for Bennett—even with Gronkowski looking improved from a lingering hamstring injury.
"#Patriots most commonly used offensive grouping today was 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR).
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 10, 2016"
With Brady back in top form and the team reliant on this imposing formation, this duo of tight ends could deliver elite fantasy results.
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Brian Hoyer with Another Stellar Fantasy Showing
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Only Ben Roethlisberger has more fantasy points in ESPN leagues than Chicago Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer over the past three weeks. No player in the NFL has more yards than Hoyer over that stretch, as his 1,016 total tops Roethlisberger's by 79 yards.
At some point, we have to consider this binge of production legitimate for fantasy purposes, because, well, it is. Hoyer is averaging 42.6 attempts over the past three weeks and completing 71.1 percent of those passes, so we're finding that coveted intersection of volume and efficiency.
If Hoyer continues to start for the Bears, which appears quite possible, he's due for another strong streaming showing in Week 6. He'll be facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in ESPN leagues entering Week 5. You can still find Hoyer in free agency in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues.
Steve Smith Sr. Rolls Ankle in Loss to the Redskins
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The Baltimore Ravens couldn't get much going in the passing game on Sunday against the Washington Redskins, averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt in the loss. It didn't help when Steve Smith Sr. left early due to an ankle injury after catching all three of his targets for 39 yards, per the Baltimore Sun's Edward Lee.
The paper's beat reporter Jeff Zrebiec reported the injury will become a pain tolerance issue going forward, while the veteran receiver's availability remains unclear.
If Smith misses any time, we can expect an uptick in target share for Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, Dennis Pitta, and Kamar Aiken. Further, Wallace and his vertical rapport with quarterback Joe Flacco appear most valuable for next week's meeting with the Giants, whether you're streaming at receiver or evaluating daily fantasy shares.
Marcus Mariota Finally Delivers Strong Fantasy Numbers
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Marcus Mariota's 30-point fantasy explosion in Week 5 placed him in rare company. Per ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft, "It's the third time in Mariota's career that he has reached the 30-point threshold, tying him with Cam Newton and Robert Griffin for the most by any quarterback before his 23rd birthday (Mariota will turn 23 on Oct. 30)."
Just when fantasy investors were rightfully jumping ship (Mariota was 29th in fantasy points per game among signal-callers through Week 4), he delivered four scores this Sunday in a win over the reeling Miami Dolphins.
Was this big fantasy outing a sign of things to come? It's tough to get enthused with Mariota producing just 163 passing yards. But his season-high seven rushes and 60 rushing yards were encouraging—that's how he must excel at the position given his lackluster receiving corps.
Mariota is leading quarterbacks in fantasy points for Week 5 in ESPN leagues heading into Monday. Adding Mariota—available in well over 60 percent of ESPN leagues—as a strong streaming option makes some sense for those in need at the position. The Titans now host three fallible pass defenses in a row, with the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars all visiting Nashville in the next three weeks.
T.Y. Hilton Is an Unquestioned WR1
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After another stellar showing in Week 5 from the Indianapolis Colts' T.Y. Hilton, we find him averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues. That ties him with the Atlanta Falcons' Julio Jones and the Detroit Lions' Marvin Jones for third among receivers on the season.
In points-per-reception formats, only the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown bests Hilton's average of 20.4 fantasy points per game. Hilton has consumed nearly 28 percent of the Colts' passing targets and produced 34.5 percent of the Colts' yardage on the season. Those numbers suggest his elite production isn't flukey, but the result of an awesome usage pattern and his real rapport with quarterback Andrew Luck.
Some challenging matchups against the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs await him in the coming weeks, but with such a rich share of the Colts' pass-heavy offense, it appears Hilton is securely back in the WR1 mix in 2016.
Eddie Lacy Injures Ankle in Week 5
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The Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy was rolling with 81 rushing yards on 11 carries into the third quarter of the team's win over the New York Giants on Sunday night, before he left the game with an ankle injury.
Mike Clemens of Sirius XM NFL Radio reported Lacy got his ankle re-taped and didn't leave the sidelines for further evaluation, but the Alabama product didn't see another touch the rest of the way.
We'll want to keep a close eye on Lacy's status, as he was running well and dominating touches and snaps before getting injured. If he's forced to miss any time, complementary back James Starks merits interest as the key insurance policy for Lacy going forward.
Jordan Howard Becoming a Bankable RB1
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The Chicago Bears' Jordan Howard is third in the NFL in rushing yards over the past two weeks thanks to a heavy volume of carries, tallying 39 attempts in the productive stretch.
Now that Howard is dominating the backfield workload and snaps (Ka'Deem Carey played just two snaps to Howard's 63, per Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke), it's becoming clear the Indiana product is a must-start fantasy asset.
Howard isn't just producing on the ground—he's averaged 3.3 catches and 37.6 receiving yards over the past three games. If you missed out on adding Howard in season-long leagues, he's still underpriced in daily fantasy football. He could continue to provide profits given his productive pace and dominant share of the opportunities with Chicago.
Is Lamar Miller a Buy-Low or a Bust?
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The Houston Texans' Lamar Miller has yet to score a touchdown. We're guessing his fantasy investors are aware of it. Miller was taken in the first or second round in all fantasy formats this past summer, and he has been a glaring disappointment in 2016.
As ESPN's Bill Barnwell noted in the tweet below, Miller came just shy of some dubious history.
"Good news: Lamar Miller is not the record-holder in most touches without a TD through 5 games. Bad news: It’s only because he got 9 touches!
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 10, 2016"
The Texans have faced some stout rush defenses of late, as the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings are allowing just 85.6 and 61.8 rushing yards per game, respectively. The workload is amazing, as Miller is on pace for over 400 touches, so a positive correction in the touchdown department is likely due.
The real question for the fantasy football marketplace becomes whether Miller is a buy-low or a bust this season?
Chris Hogan Tops 100 Yards in Tom Brady's Debut
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As we covered, Tom Brady's return to the New England Patriots fueled some strong tight end production. We also witnessed wide receiver Chris Hogan deliver a strong 114-yard performance against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.
Hogan flashed intriguing big-play upside in the preseason with Brady and again connected on some rewarding vertical targets in Week 5. As we learned today, Brady was able to hit on several vertical throws Sunday, completing 4 of 5 passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, according to an ESPN database.
Available in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues, Hogan is a compelling addition to fantasy rosters given the valuable rapport he's established with Brady.
Eli Manning and the Giants Passing Attack Continue to Struggle
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Battling the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning wasn't able to find the consistency or scoring touch that have been eluding him this season.
Manning completed just over 50 percent of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt in the loss. While Manning did net a late touchdown to Odell Beckham Jr., the night was largely uninspired and he looked uncomfortable in the pocket throughout.
The Giants host the Baltimore Ravens' capable defense and then visit the Los Angeles Rams over the next two weeks. Manning isn't a bankable fantasy starter at this stage. Rather, he's in the middling tier of streaming options because of his erratic play to start the year.
Both Atlanta Backs Shine Again on Sunday
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The Denver Broncos were allowing 13.3 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues to opposing backfields through Week 4, the 11th-fewest in the league over that span.
When the Atlanta Falcons visited on Sunday, their talented duo of tailbacks tallied 39 fantasy points in ESPN standard leagues. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman both topped 100 total yards and scored in the telling road upset.
Mounting evidence suggests both tailbacks are valuable and worthy of starting in fantasy leagues going forward. That's especially true in PPR leagues, where each back's receiving success stands out.
Freeman appears more bankable on a weekly basis given his stronger share of early-down carries, but both players merit continued interest in fantasy formats after this emboldening and impressive showing in Denver.
Chicago's Cameron Meredith Earns Big Numbers
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The Chicago Bears are popular in this recap edition, as their collection of rising fantasy assets produced strong showings for fantasy managers in Week 5. One standout—besides Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard, who each earned their own slide in this feature—was wideout Cameron Meredith.
Meredith, who went undrafted out of Illinois State in 2015, produced a top-10 fantasy score among receivers on Sunday thanks to career bests in receptions (nine) and yards (130) along with a touchdown.
According to Gil Brandt of NFL.com, Meredith was listed at nearly 6'4" on his pro day, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds, recorded an impressive 39-inch vertical jump and notched a 10'7" broad jump.
Such notable athleticism could help Meredith earn steady snaps and targets with the Bears, as they'll be without an injured Kevin White going forward. For those interested in this rising commodity, Meredith is currently owned in fewer than two percent of ESPN leagues. Get your waiver bids ready.
LeSean Shady McCoy Continues His Quietly Awesome Season
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The Buffalo Bills' LeSean McCoy is averaging more fantasy points in PPR leagues than the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson. In fact, McCoy leads all running backs in PPR formats through five games.
On pace for over 1,700 total yards and 20 touches per game, McCoy is poised to be an elite fantasy option. The Bills are missing Sammy Watkins' big-play potential on offense, so heavy doses of McCoy in both the rushing and passing phases should continue.
Most notable for those interested in pursuing McCoy on the trade market?
The Bills face an inviting stretch of opponents in the fantasy playoffs, namely with matchups against the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins in the crucial series of Weeks 15 and 16.
Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Towards History
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The Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott ran for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in Sunday's win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The electrifying rookie now leads the league with 546 rushing yards.
Elliott also tallied 37 yards in the air, putting him on pace for 1,747 rushing yards and 2,006 yards from scrimmage. He's not only cementing his status as an elite fantasy commodity—he's chasing history.
Eric Dickerson ran for 1,808 yards in his epic rookie season for the Los Angeles Rams in 1983, the most ever by a rookie. The second-best rushing total by a rookie was George Rogers' 1,674 yards in 1981. Elliott is on pace to pass Rogers and take a real shot at Dickerson's record.
Snap, target and fantasy data sourced from an ESPN database for this piece.
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