Predicting the Top Candidates for the 2016-17 Hart Trophy

According to NHL.com, "The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association in all NHL cities at the end of the regular season."

Value, of course, can be measured in many different ways.

Most years, the hockey writers put a premium on scoring, and while the Hart is a regular-season award, candidates who have shown they can do the job in the playoffs will often get a halo boost from a previous year or years.

Every so often, a defenseman or goaltender also comes along who's so good that he ruffles the rankings.

As we roll into 2016-17, all the top Hart Trophy candidates will begin by strutting their stuff in the World Cup of Hockey in September. A win for their country could also set the stage for an advantage when it's time for the writers to cast their ballots in April.

Going into the season, these are the most likely candidates to find themselves in the Hart mix at year's end.

8. Connor McDavid: Edmonton Oilers

Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

2015-16 Stats: 45 GP, 16-32-48

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: none

Making His Case

No teenagers were even considered in the 2015-16 Hart Trophy race. The youngest players to secure any votes at all were 23-year-old Evgeny Kuznetsov, who got one fourth- and one fifth-place vote, and 24-year-old Vladimir Tarasenko, who earned one third-, one fourth- and five fifth-place votes.

So yes, it's a stretch to suggest that Connor McDavid will barge into the Hart Trophy conversation at 19 years old—but Sidney Crosby did it a decade ago in his second NHL season.

Crosby already had a 102-point rookie year under his belt, so his 1.26 points per game in his first season were better than the 1.07 points we saw from McDavid in his abbreviated first year. But Crosby's the only player since the 1980s to best McDavid's performance as an 18-year-old, according to QuantHockey. The next-best performance was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' 52 points in 62 games for 0.839 points per game back in 2011-12.

If the Edmonton Oilers' management group has correctly assessed the upgrades that the team required during this offseason, McDavid will almost certainly get the glory as the Oilers rise. He has the talent and is already being asked to play a leadership role. If all goes according to plan, he'll be the face of a franchise that finally climbs out of the league cellar after a decade in the doldrums.

7. Erik Karlsson: Ottawa Senators

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 16-66-82

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Erik Karlsson finished ninth in Hart Trophy voting in 2015-16 with 44 points, but he didn't earn a single first-place vote. His best showing was eighth in 2011-12, the year he won his first of two Norris Trophies.

Making His Case

It's mind-boggling to think that the Ottawa Senators fell by 14 points in the league standings and missed the playoffs in 2015-16 while defenseman Karlsson finished in a tie for fourth in the league scoring race with a career-best 82 points.

Karlsson also completed his third straight season without missing a single game after dealing with that nasty skate cut to his Achilles tendon in 2012-13. He also led all players in ice time, averaging 28:58 per game.

With seven NHL seasons under his belt at age 26, Karlsson's heroics have already become run of the mill, which hurts him in awards voting. But if the Sens rebound this season under new coach Guy Boucher, the bounce will also boost Karlsson's reputation.

A strong showing for the defensively awesome Team Sweden at the World Cup of Hockey wouldn't hurt, either.

The last defenseman to win the Hart was Chris Pronger with the St. Louis Blues in 1999-2000. Karlsson's a special player who should earn similar consideration while he's in his hockey prime. 

6. Patrick Kane: Chicago Blackhawks

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 46-60-106

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Patrick Kane was the runaway winner of the Hart Trophy in 2015-16 with 1,395 points and 121 first-place votes. It was Kane's first time as a Hart finalist—his previous best showing was sixth place in 2012-13. Kane also won the Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award in 2015-16, and he was the Conn Smythe winner in 2012-13.

Making His Case

One year ago, Kane's hockey future was in jeopardy due to some offseason, off-ice legal troubles.

The Chicago Blackhawks stood by their dynamic right winger, and he rewarded their faith with his first triple-digit season, leading the NHL with 106 points. By the time the charges against Kane were dropped in November, per Jared S. Hopkins and Stacy St. Clair of the Chicago Tribune, the player was out of the gate like a lightning bolt, building an untouchable lead in the scoring race.

At the movies, high expectations almost always lead to disappointing receptions for sequels. Kane has now set a new benchmark for himself and will need to exceed it in order to put himself back into the Hart conversation again in 2016-17.

5. Steven Stamkos: Tampa Bay Lightning

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

2015-16 Stats: 77 GP, 36-28-64

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Steven Stamkos received no Hart Trophy votes in 2015-16. He's a two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner whose best previous Hart showing was runner-up in 2011-12.

Making His Case

Stamkos went down to the wire as the season's most eligible potential unrestricted free agent. He decided to re-up with the Tampa Bay Lightning for eight years on June 29.

Tampa Bay is the only team in the NHL to have reached the conference final in both of the last two years, though Stamkos was sidelined for much of this year's playoffs due to his blood clot issues.

Stamkos is just 26 but has already logged eight full seasons. Through that time, he has cracked the 50-goal mark twice, and the only games he has missed have been due to the blood clot last spring and when he suffered his broken leg in November 2013. 

Playing in a non-traditional market, Stamkos' name may never have been more prominent than it was during the run-up to this summer's free agency. While people are paying attention, Stamkos could build a solid case for the Hart if the Lightning challenge to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in 2016-17.

4. Alexander Ovechkin: Washington Capitals

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 79 GP, 50-21-71

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Alexander Ovechkin finished sixth in Hart voting in 2015-16 with 212 points and two first-place votes. Ovechkin is a three-time Hart Trophy winner and a six-time winner of the Rocket Richard Trophy.

Making His Case

The Washington Capitals were the class of the NHL in the 2015-16 season, taking the Presidents' Trophy with 120 points, but work remains to be done.

Since Ovechkin came into the National Hockey League in 2005, he still hasn't taken his team past the second round of the playoffs.

The Hart Trophy is a regular-season award, with votes submitted as the playoffs begin. Unless Ovechkin wildly eclipses 50 goals and approaches his career high of 65 goals and 112 points while the Caps dominate the Eastern Conference even more completely than they did last season, he'll be an afterthought in Hart voting until he can deliver some postseason success.

3. Jamie Benn: Dallas Stars

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 41-48-89

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Jamie Benn finished third in Hart voting in 2015-16 with 637 points and eight first-place votes. It was his first time as a Hart finalist; his previous best was 12th in the voting in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Making His Case

It takes the hockey writers a little while to pick up on the emergence of a dominant new talent. When Benn won the Art Ross Trophy as the league's top scorer in 2014-15, he still only finished 12th in the Hart Trophy race. That's because he wasn't an already established superstar, he came into the NHL as a fifth-round draft pick, he's still on the young end of the NHL's elite players and the Dallas Stars missed the playoffs.

Benn proved that his Art Ross season was no fluke by improving to 41 goals and 89 points in 2015-16, the best numbers of his career. His Stars also rebounded to second overall in the NHL's regular-season standings, helping to legitimize Benn's position as not just a scorer, but also a leader.

With his big 6'2", 210-pound body, Benn's just as happy to throw a hit as he is to score a goal—a throwback player who's right in his hockey prime at age 27. 

The Stars are looking to establish themselves as the class of the Western Conference. If they do, their captain has a Hart Trophy in his future.

2. Carey Price: Montreal Canadiens

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

2015-16 Stats: 12 GP, 10-2-0, 2.06 goals-against average, .934 save percentage, 2 shutouts

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Carey Price won the 2014-15 Hart Trophy by a landslide. He received votes in three other seasons but didn't finish higher than seventh in any of those years.

Making His Case

Remember when the Montreal Canadiens started 2015-16 on a nine-game winning streak? It's all a haze now—the Habs' season started going south as soon as MVP goalie Price was injured back in November.

The Canadiens were a shadow of their former selves without the rock-solid Price, but he should be back in fine form this fall. On Tuesday, Team Canada general manager Doug Armstrong told Sportsnet, via NHL.com, that Price is "100 percent and he's ready to go" for the World Cup of Hockey.

The Habs could benefit from Price stepping straight into the spotlight and working off his rust in September's tournament. It'll get his competitive juices flowing and should launch him into the new season in top form.

1. Sidney Crosby: Pittsburgh Penguins

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

2015-16 Stats: 80 GP, 36-49-85; playoffs 24 GP, 6-13-19, won Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy

Hart Pedigree from Hockey Reference: Crosby finished second in Hart Trophy voting in 2015-16 with 800 points, but he got just 11 first-place votes compared to 121 votes for Kane. Crosby's a two-time Hart winner (2006-07, 2013-14) and has been a finalist on two other occasions.

Making His Case

If Hart Trophy voting had been broken into two halves in 2015-16, Crosby might have won the second-half trophy. On December 31, Kane's Blackhawks were 22-13-4, and Kane was leading the scoring race with 23 goals and 33 assists in 39 games. Meanwhile, Crosby's Pittsburgh Penguins had gone 18-15-4, and Crosby had just nine goals and 27 points.

In 2016, the trends reversed. Chicago improved slightly with a 25-13-5 record through its final 43 games, but the Penguins were a blistering 30-11-4. Points-wise, Kane collected 23 goals and 27 assists to finish with 106 points and win the Art Ross Trophy, but Crosby collected 27 goals and 31 assists to finish the year with 85 points.

Crosby had four more goals than Kane once the calendar flipped to 2016, and he tallied just one less point during that span. Even more importantly, he was the glue that held the Penguins together as they charged to their first Stanley Cup in seven years.

Stanley Cup hangovers are not uncommon for NHL teams, but the Penguins surged late and have been able to keep their lineup almost completely intact this summer. At 29, Crosby could very well be poised to deliver the season that defines his career in 2016-17.

All stats courtesy of NHL.com.