Fantasy Football 2016: Fantasy Fact or Fiction Around Offseason Buzz

Each season, there is always some offseason buzz that could potentially impact your fantasy football team.

Whether it be reports of certain players starting with the first-team players during camp, an injury or a rookie showing up, these could have very little impact when it comes time for the games.

Or they could be incredibly legitimate.

The best way to navigate through these is to avoid personal bias and look logically at each situation. In fact, there is one slide on here in which there is a player involved that I'm a personal fan of and attempted to (and hopefully successfully) avoid making a judgment based off of my love for that player.

Let's start this off with one that should come as no surprise to anyone.

Fact: David Johnson to Get Bulk of Carries

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

As mentioned in the opening slide, this should come as no surprise.

As Darren Urban of the Arizona Cardinals' official site reports, running back David Johnson has looked "excellent" in camp.

Would you have expected anything less?

Behind Johnson is another Johnson—Chris Johnson—but there is no way on the planet that the latter Johnson really competes for the former Johnson's job.

To make this easier, I'm just going to refer to them in the same slide as 'DJ' and 'CJ'.

DJ was not even close to being the featured back until late in the season, and still managed 12 total touchdowns and over 1,000 total yards.

DJ is my early favorite to be the top overall running back in 2016 when you combine his ability in the receiving and rushing game.

Fiction: Colin Kaepernick to 'Run More'

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

According to CSN Bay Area, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has appeared more willing to run the ball in camp.

While this could be Kaepernick using one of his well-known abilities to separate himself from fellow quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Jeff Driskel for the starting job, I'm in agreement with 49ers offensive coordinator Curtis Modkins' comments of, "Our offense takes what the defense gives us."

We've seen in the past that Kaepernick has been an elite runner at the quarterback position.

In fact, the stats suggest he has always been willing to run, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th in 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively, in rushing attempts amongst quarterbacks (did not include 2015 because he lost the job).

No matter which quarterback gets the job in San Francisco, they are both QB3 options with low QB2 upside.

Fact: Sterling Shepard Is Ready to Produce

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

With the lingering injuries to fellow New York Giants wide receivers Victor Cruz and more recently, the leg injury suffered by Odell Beckham Jr., rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard has had opportunities to showcase his abilities even more, especially during Beckham's short absence.

Coming out of college, Shepard was praised for his route-running ability. When he was drafted by the Giants, the combination of Shepard and Beckham was a fun one to image.

Jordan Raanan of ESPN is reporting that Shepard is making "tough, contested catches" and that it is clear that Shepard is going to be a "big part of this offense."

As Matt Harmon of NFL.com illustrates in his Reception Perception series on 2016 NFL draft prospects, Shepard had no trouble competing against virtually any kind of coverage.

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Shepard is projected as the No. 38 WR in points per reception formats. Though he is going just outside of being a WR3, he could have the upside of a WR2.

Shepard is neck-and-neck with Cleveland Browns wide receiver Corey Coleman for the rookie receiver to own this year.

Fiction: Arian Foster Is 'The Guy'

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Remember in the opening slide when I mentioned there would be a slide in which I'd have to battle personal bias?

Well here it is.

I'll just get it out there—I'm a huge fan of Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi.

Upon the Dolphins signing fellow running back Arian Foster, I've vehemently defended Ajayi.

Look, I'm not going to be stubborn—the Dolphins appear to not be completely sold on Ajayi, as he has had trouble catching the ball this offseason and there are reports, per ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t James Walker of ESPN), of his knee suffering 'bone on bone' (although I'm not convinced that is 100 percent the case).

While Ajayi may not have a 10-year career if that is indeed true, it's fair we look at the soon-to-be 30-year-old running back in Foster with numerous injuries including some to his back, hamstrings and oh yeah, his Achilles, people.

Chris Wesseling of NFL.com wrote a piece over three years ago about Achilles injuries to running backs and not much has changed today.

They are never, ever, ever, ever the same.

This has nothing to do with this guy being named Arian Foster—it's an injury to his Achilles for crying out loud.

Though Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald is reporting that there is "growing optimism" of Foster being the guy right now, I've gone over this time and time again in my mind: There is no way Foster plays and is productive for all 16 games.

We also cannot forget how ineffective Foster was in 2015 even before the injury, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry.

Ajayi will need to battle to stay in the mix at this point, but his ADP plummet is a bit of an overreaction.

Foster will undoubtedly be a part of the Dolphins' game plan as he can probably still be a valuable weapon in the area Ajayi struggles in—the passing game—but I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around Foster being healthy for the entire 2016 season.

Fact: Alshon Jeffery's Hamstring Injury a Concern

Nam Huh/Associated Press

When it comes to fantasy football, I'm usually the guy who treads on the risky side.

Though I'd still draft Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, his hamstring issues are a legitimate concern.

Jeffery missed close to half the season in 2015 due to hamstring issues.

The Bears are also expressing concern with the hamstrings by not giving him an extension to this point and having him play on a franchise tag this season.

And now, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune is reporting that Jeffery has missed practice time with—you guessed it—a hamstring injury.

Yeah, I'm not shocked.

Sports Injury Predictor labels Jeffery as a high risk to be re-injured, giving him an 83 percent chance. While I'm not exactly a bookkeeper of each players respective injury chances, 83 percent has got to be amongst the top of the chart.

If that number doesn't help persuade you, let me point out that although this applies to running backs, numberFire tweeted that 37.1 percent of running backs with soft tissue injuries suffered during the preseason miss at least one game during the regular season with the same exact injury.

Again, while that applies to running backs, it shows that soft tissue injuries, like hamstrings, are not to be taken lightly.

Right now, Jeffery is going as a WR1.

When he is on the field, that is a legitimate ranking. But with all of his injury history, I'm not too sure if Jeffery could be drafted to my fantasy team as a WR1.

Proceed with some caution. 

Fiction: Tyler Eifert to Return 'Early in Regular Season'

Frank Victores/Associated Press

"Early in the regular season" is an extremely relative phrase.

Does this mean in the first quarter of the season? The first two weeks? I'm not sure.

This is, of course, about Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert, who suffered an ankle injury during the Pro Bowl (of all places) last season.

Geoff Hobson of the Bengals' official site is reporting that he does not expect the leader in touchdowns amongst tight ends to return until "early in the regular season."

To me, if Eifert misses the first three weeks, he'll probably miss Week 4.

Why?

Because Week 4 for the Bengals is on a short week as the team will play on a Thursday.

Therefore, if Eifert returns Week 5, is that really considered 'early'? To me, it's missing a quarter of the football season. That's a pretty significant amount of time for a guy who is going as the No. 7 TE, as well as someone who had numbers from 2015 that will not repeat in 2016.

The numbers I'm talking about are 13 touchdowns on 66 targets.

Not happening again.

When you factor Hobson's report, coupled with Eifert's unsustainable 2015 statistics, he is a tough player to peg at this point in terms of where to draft. When he's finally healthy, he'll start producing up to his ADP.

Fact: Corey Coleman the Real Deal

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Much like fellow rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard of the New York Giants, Corey Coleman of the Cleveland Browns is the real deal.

As Tony Grossi of ESPN Cleveland simply put on Twitter, Coleman "looks real deal."

Can't argue with that.

Wide receiver Josh Gordon's reinstatement could potentially muddy the waters for Coleman. However, Gordon will miss the first four games and, let's face it—he hasn't play in a really long time.

I'll admit there was a little skepticism of Coleman at first due to his lack of a route tree at Baylor University, but man is his tape exciting.

As Matt Harmon of NFL.com points out in his Reception Perception, Coleman was nearly perfect on the routes he was asked to run. Harmon also points out that Baylor wide receivers are asked to read defenses kind of like quarterbacks, thus making his success rate versus zone coverage that much more exciting.

I'll be bold and say that Coleman has the potential to be a low-end WR2 this season based off ability alone. However, when you factor in Gordon's return, the Browns as a team and hoping quarterback Robert Griffin III doesn't completely bomb, Coleman could be held back.

If Griffin III shows he can be a competent quarterback in 2016, Coleman will definitely outproduce his current WR45 price tag.

Fiction: Terrance West Competing for Starting Job

Gail Burton/Associated Press

There always seems to be this kind of funky headline at this point in the football season.

According to Jamison Hensley of ESPN, Baltimore Ravens running back Terrance West has "put himself in position" to compete for the starting running back job for the Ravens.

While West is having a great camp and offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has talked up the former Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans cast-off, I'll be the first to say I'd be genuinely shocked if this were to happen.

I'm not one to get shocked ever when it comes to the NFL.

Along with West, the Ravens have three other notable running backs in Justin Forsett, Javorius Allen and rookie Kenneth Dixon.

In 2015, West had very limited work, carrying the ball 62 times and averaging under four yards per carry in games with both the Titans and Ravens.

He's just not starting running back material.

To me, this concept isn't going to be stat-driven, but rather common sense.

Forsett will open the season as the starter, but expect Dixon to work his way up the depth chart.

West will have a smaller role that will take an injury for his potential of being the Ravens' starter to come even close to fruition. 

With that said, it is nice to finally see the former third-round pick getting into a groove. Unfortunately, he's on a team with three other backs that are capable of being competent.

Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and Picking Pros. All ADP references courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator. 

Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.