Predicting the Top Candidates for the 2016-17 Norris Trophy

Norris Trophy voting looks like it's headed for a bit of a shakeup in the 2016-17 season.

Year after year, the members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association tend to focus on the same names when it comes time to mark their ballots at the end of the regular season. Right now, some new factors are coming into play.

Credit some new tremendous performances during the run to the 2016 Stanley Cup, a couple of coaching changes and, of course, one of the biggest trades the league has seen in years.

Once the dust settles, your 2017 Norris Trophy finalists might feature some new faces—and some high-end talent might struggle to earn votes and attention.

Honorable mentions that did not make the list but could very well end up working their way into the Norris conversation next season include two-time Norris winner Duncan Keith, offensive dynamos Oliver Ekman-Larsson, John Klingberg and Shayne Gostisbehere, Florida Panthers star Aaron Ekblad and the underappreciated Roman Josi.

Here's a look at how the best of the best will stack up. Who's your Norris favorite for 2016-17?

8. Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

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2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 16-66-82, minus-2, one power-play goal; playoffs: N/A

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Erik Karlsson finished second in Norris Trophy voting in 2015-16, receiving 1,020 points and 46 first-place votes, per Hockey Reference. He also won the Norris in 2011-12 and 2014-15.

Making His Case

With three Norris Trophies already in his possession at the tender age of 26, Erik Karlsson will probably need to win the Stanley Cup and the NHL's overall scoring title before voters will seriously consider him for a fourth award.

In the 2015-16 regular season, Karlsson led all NHL players in ice time, averaging 28:58 a game. He led all defensemen in scoring with a career-high 82 points—tied for fourth overall in the league and the most points for a blueliner since 1995-96, when Brian Leetch tallied 85 points with the New York Rangers, according to QuantHockey. That surpasses Nicklas Lidstrom's 80 points in 2005-06 as the greatest output by a defenseman in the new millennium.

As a team, the Ottawa Senators are pretty bad defensively—they ranked 26th in goals against in 2015-16. That hurt Karlsson's Norris candidacy last season. To be a finalist in 2016-17, Karlsson will need to put up his usual amazing numbers while new coach Guy Boucher tightens up the team's systems and gets Ottawa back into the Atlantic Division playoff picture. Otherwise, expect to see Karlsson slip a little more when next year's voting results are revealed.

7. P.K. Subban, Nashville Predators

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

2015-16 Stats: 68 GP, 6-45-51, plus-4, two power-play goals; playoffs: N/A

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

P.K. Subban finished 14th in Norris Trophy voting in 2015-16, receiving just two fourth-place votes, per Hockey Reference. He won the Norris in 2012-13 and finished third behind Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty in 2014-15.

Making His Case

P.K. Subban should re-establish himself as one of the NHL's premier defensemen when he joins a strong defense corps with the Nashville Predators this fall. Subban has taken criticism in the past for the defensive side of his game, but that should improve under new coach Peter Laviolette in Nashville.

He may not be the best defenseman on his new team, but his glow will almost certainly outshine dependable Roman Josi. That counts for a lot in the Norris race. The love affair between Subban and the fans in Nashville has already begun in earnest. His big personality makes him an ideal spokesperson to help increase hockey's profile in non-traditional markets.

If he realizes his potential on the ice as well, he'll work his way back into the upper echelon of Norris contenders.

6. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning

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2015-16 Stats: 78 GP, 10-37-47, plus-21, one power-play goal; playoffs: 17 GP, 4-10-14, plus-2

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Victor Hedman finished seventh in Norris Trophy voting in 2015-16 with 62 points. He received no first-place votes and two second-place votes, per Hockey Reference. His previous best had been a ninth-place showing in 2014-15.

Making His Case

Now 25 and the anchor of the only team to reach the final four in the NHL playoffs in both of the past two seasons, Victor Hedman is poised to break into the conversation as one of the best defensemen in the league.

His offensive numbers aren't as gaudy as some of the more widely-heralded blueliners, but he has scored goals in the double digits in three straight regular-season campaigns, uses his size well to protect goaltender Ben Bishop and has shown that he can take his game to the next level in the playoffs.

During the regular season, the Lightning seem to get more media coverage for their off-ice drama than they do for their on-ice play, so those postseason runs have been crucial for increasing Hedman's profile outside of his local market.

He won't be a Norris finalist in 2016-17, but his time will come.

5. Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 14-37-51, plus-24, nine power-play goals; playoffs: 5 GP, 0-1-1, minus-5

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Drew Doughty won his first Norris Trophy in 2016 with 1,254 points, including 93 first-place votes, per Hockey Reference. He had previously been a Norris finalist in 2009-10 and in 2014-15. 

Making His Case

Drew Doughty is fortunate that NHL awards voting concludes before the playoffs begin. Doughty and his Los Angeles Kings teammates struggled mightily before their postseason came to a quick end after just five games against the San Jose Sharks.

During the regular season, Doughty made his case over Erik Karlsson for the Norris not so much through his offense—though he did score 14 goals—but through his more well-rounded game. Doughty was also being rewarded for previous outstanding playoff performances, including two Stanley Cup wins, and for the fact that his Kings were headed back to the postseason, while Karlsson's Ottawa Senators were not.

Now that he's a Norris winner, expect to see Doughty slide down the rankings a bit. The Kings look set to slip in the standings after an uneventful offseason, and voters will be eyeing the list of the league's top blueliners for another new, deserving candidate.

4. Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens

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2015-16 Stats: 78 GP, 20-31-51, minus-7, 14 power-play goals; playoffs: 14 GP, 3-4-7, minus-7

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Shea Weber finished 10th in Norris Trophy voting in 2016 with no first-place votes and one second-place vote, per Hockey Reference. Weber has been a three-time Norris finalist. He finished second in both 2010-11 and 2011-12.

Making His Case

Montreal Canadiens fans are apoplectic about the June trade that sent P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators. They'll feel better about the deal, at least in the short run, when they get a firsthand look at the hard-hitting, heavy-shooting game that Shea Weber brings to the Bell Centre.

Weber's 14 power-play goals for Nashville in last season were tops in the league among defensemen. His point shot, which consistently ranks among the hardest, will provide an instant boost to a Montreal power play that ranked 25th in the NHL in 2015-16. 

At 6'4" and 236 pounds, Weber will provide an intimidation factor that has been missing from the Montreal blue line in recent years. He'll also be under a brighter media spotlight than he ever experienced in Nashville.

As long as he stays healthy, Weber should be back in the mix as a potential Norris finalist this season.

3. Ryan Suter, Minnesota Wild

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2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 8-43-51, plus-10, three power-play goals; playoffs: 6 GP, 0-3-3, plus-3

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Ryan Suter finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting in 2015-16 with no first-place votes and one second-place vote, per Hockey Reference. Suter was the runner-up to P.K. Subban in Norris voting in 2012-13.

Making His Case

Ryan Suter quietly hit a career high with 51 points in 2015-16 and got his scoring back to a typical eight goals after rippling the twine just twice in 2014-15. Despite a tumultuous season that saw coach Mike Yeo dismissed in February, the Minnesota Wild were still ninth-best in the NHL last season in terms of goals against.

Suter's a huge part of that defensive effectiveness. He averaged 28:35 per game in ice time in 2015-16, second only to Erik Karlsson.

The Wild will have a new coach this fall, and Bruce Boudreau is also known for instilling a stingy system. Boudreau's challenge is getting all the way in the playoffs, but he's a winner in the regular season—his 409-192-80 record gives him a .659 points percentage in the NHL, according to Hockey Reference—best among all active coaches and even a smidge better than the legendary Scotty Bowman, whose career points percentage is .657.

If Boudreau lives up to his past history, the Wild will be poised to make a serious move up the Central Division standings. That will lead to plenty of attention for Suter as a Norris candidate in 2016-17.

2. Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

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2015-16 Stats: 82 GP, 27-48-75, minus-5, seven power-play goals; playoffs: 24 GP, 7-17-24, plus-11

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Brent Burns finished third in Norris Trophy voting in 2015-16 with 619 points and three first-place votes, per Hockey Reference. His previous best had been 12th place in Norris voting when he was with the Minnesota Wild in 2007-08.

Making His Case

Brent Burns has made quite a turnaround from being a defenseman-turned-forward just a few years ago. He became one of the best blueliners in the league during Peter DeBoer's first season as head coach of the San Jose Sharks.

Big Burnzie has always been a great skater with a good shot, but his offensive improvement over the past three seasons has been jaw-dropping. He posted a career-high 48 points in 2013-14, jumped up to 60 points in 2014-15 and tallied an amazing 75 points last season, second among defensemen behind Erik Karlsson.

Burns' 27 goals were the most by a defenseman and the second-highest total since the turn of the millennium, bested only by Mike Green's 31 goals with the Washington Capitals in 2008-09, according to QuantHockey.

Those offensive totals and the Sharks' overall improvement earned Burns enough votes to become a first-time Norris finalist. He proved the votes he received were justified with an electrifying performance in the playoffs. His big beard and equally big personality also make him a media darling.

If the Sharks can bring the same bite in 2016-17 as they did last season, Burns should have a chance to climb even higher in the Norris rankings.

1. Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins

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2015-16 Stats: 71 GP, 16-51-67, plus-9, five power-play goals; playoffs: 23 GP, 3-12-15, plus-6

2015-16 Norris Voting Results

Kris Letang finished fourth in Norris voting in 2016 with 587 points and eight first-place votes, per Hockey Reference. Letang was a Norris finalist in 2012-13, when he finished third behind P.K. Subban and Ryan Suter.

Making His Case

Just over two years after suffering a stroke and being diagnosed with a congenital heart defect, Kris Letang capped off the best season of his NHL career by hoisting his second Stanley Cup.

Letang muted concerns about his heart condition and his concussion history as he hit career highs during the regular season with 16 goals and 67 points while averaging 26:56 of ice time per game. In the playoffs, that number rose to 28:52 per game, the most of any defenseman who played past the first round.

Best-known for his effortless skating, Letang's point shot from the power play is an important weapon for the Penguins. Though he's smaller than most other Norris candidates at 6'0" and 201 pounds, Letang's not afraid to get physical when necessary.

If the Penguins can avoid a Stanley Cup hangover and come out of the gate well in 2016-17, expect to see 29-year-old Letang earn serious consideration for his first Norris Trophy.

All stats from NHL.com. Award information from Hockey Reference.