Scheduling for Success - Who Benefits Most from Yawners

Tired of boring bowl games?  You may well be in for more of the same next year.

BCS teams with 4-4 or 3-5 conference records could be riding into bowl eligibility on the coattails of cupcake non-conference schedules—and playing each other.

Non-conference scheduling is dumbing down everywhere—except the Pac-10—with schedules that include more Division I-AA teams and fewer BCS teams.

The two NCAA rule changes that started in 2006—scheduling a 12th regular season game and the ability to schedule I-AA teams—have effectively added one home win to many team’s records.

In 2005, BCS teams played a total of 31 I-AA teams.  In 2006, that went up to 47 games.  Last year, 41 games were against and I-AA teams, and this year? A record 51 games, 20 more than three years ago. 

ACC football teams recently voted down a ninth conference game.  Their rationale? Money and bowl invitations.

Jim Grobe, Wake Forest head coach, explains:  "I think it's something that there's a lot of unknowns.  By doing that (ninth conference game) certainly it makes scheduling easier. But at the same time, it could potentially make your schedule a little tougher and maybe hurt you down the road as far as bowl games are concerned. Because if you play an extra game, half the teams in the league will guaranteed to have another loss.” 

The ACC plays 23 of its 48 non-conference games against  BCS foes – 47.9 percent, higher than any other league.  However, the ACC also plays more Division I-AA teams than any other conference – 14.  Every conference team - except Wake - is playing at least one I-AA team. Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State play two I-AA teams.  Only one other team – Texas Tech - in all the other BCS conferences have two I-AA games.

Playing two I-AA Teams

·        Clemson (ACC)

·        Florida State(ACC)

·        Georgia Tech (ACC)

·        Texas Tech (Big 12)

Clearly, the elimination of strength of schedule in calculating BCS rankings has been a major contributor to teams scheduling cupcakes.   

(Team rankings below are from Jeff Sagarin in USA Today for 2007)  

Maryland, for example, was 3-5 in the ACC last year and went to a bowl game, buoyed by its 3-1 non-conference record with wins against Florida International (170), Villanova (93), Rutgers (38) and a loss to West Virginia (3).  This year Maryland is getting softer, scheduling Delaware, Middle Tennessee State, Eastern Michigan and California.

The ACC has contracted for 9 bowl games—10 if they place a second BCS team —for a 12-team league. 

Here is Florida State’s non-conference schedule for 2008: Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Colorado, and Florida.  A conference foe would replace a team like Western Carolina or Chattanooga—or Colorado, if Bobby Bowden would choose to keep his cupcakes.   

Bowden is typically blunt about playing one more conference opponent – or one less I-AA team, "I can't think of a single reason that a football coach would want it…The difference between getting into a BCS bowl game and a lesser bowl game, it's not worth it."  

The Pac-10 football coaches, however, can see the reasons Bowden cannot: competition and fan enjoyment.  With the same number of teams as the ACC, Pac-10 teams have chosen to play all the other nine conference teams, leaving three non-conference games.   This year the Pac-10 will play 14 of 31 non-conference games against BCS opponents: 45.2 per cent, second only to the ACC.   But only two of those games are against I-AA teams, less than any other conference.   

California—3-6 in conference—needed to win all three non-conference games last year against Louisiana Tech (111), Colorado State (91) and Tennessee (15), SEC East champion.  Cal plays Michigan State, Maryland, and Colorado State this year.  Individual Pac-10 teams will play from 10 to 12 BCS teams in 2008 except for Arizona, who plays no BCS opponents outside of conference.

The Pac-10 has contracted for seven bowl games for its 10 teams.

                       ACC         Pac-10       Big East       SEC          Big 12       Big10                                                                       

Teams	12	10	8	12	12	11
Non-conference games	48	31	41	48	48	44
I-AA games	14	2	7	9	10	9
% I-AA	29.17%	6.45%	17.1%	18.75%	20.83%	20.45%
BCS opponents	23	14	16	15	15	13
% BCS opponents	47.9%	45.2%	39%	31.25%	31.25%	29.5%

The Big Ten has taken the most advantage of these rule changes. Only 13 of 44 non-conference games this year are against BCS foes, only 29.5 percent.  These are the lowest numbers of any BCS conference.  Now if Notre Dame did not play three Big Ten opponents... 

Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin will not play any BCS non-conference opponents in 2008.  Only three teams from all the other BCS conferences can boast the same weak schedule.

Indiana went 3-5 in-conference and yet qualified for a bowl in 2007 due to their 4-0 non-conference record against Indiana State (238), Akron (127), Western Michigan (106), and Ball State (83).  Indiana was really never in the bowl game against Oklahoma State. 

In 2008, Indiana plays Western Kentucky, Murray State, Ball State and Central Michigan this year.  As a byproduct of scheduling so many I-AA teams, Indiana also plays eight home games this year.  (Only LSU, Louisville and Nebraska also have eight home games.)

Finishing sixth or seventh with a losing conference record and going 3-1 non-conference is becoming a proud tradition—or considered successful scheduling.

Yet who wants to watch the Big Ten Network games until October? 

The Big Ten has contracted for seven bowls this year for an 11-team league.   

Playing No BCS Teams

·        Indiana (Big 10)

·        Minnesota (Big 10)

·        Wisconsin (Big 10)

·        Arizona (Pac-10)

·        LSU (SEC)

·        Texas Tech (Big 12)

The Big East

With only eight teams in their league, each team plays five non-conference games, more than any other conference.  With such wide latitude, quite a difference in scheduling has occurred.

Syracuse, South Florida and Connecticut have scheduled three BCS opponents this year. West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Louisville have scheduled two.  Rutgers and Cincinnati have scheduled only one.  Big East teams will play seven I-AA teams this year.  Sixteen of their 41 non-conference games will be against BCS teams (40 percent). 

Rutgers, a bowl team last year, with a 3-4 conference record, had non-conference wins over Norfolk State (174), Army (131), Buffalo (115) and Navy (74) with a loss to BCS Maryland (51).  This year’s schedule includes Morgan State, Army, Fresno State, Navy and North Carolina. 

The Big East would love to have Notre Dame in their conference for football, but have settled for a commitment of three games per year.  Already Pittsburgh and Connecticut have signed multi-year contracts.  Rutgers has declined.  All three schools that ND will play could end up with tougher schedules than the other Big East teams.   

The Big East has contracted for seven bowls for their eight team league, though one bowl is for alternating years.

The SEC and The Big 12

They have similar profiles in scheduling for their twelve teams.  The SEC has nine games against I-AA teams.  The Big 12 has scheduled 10.  Both the SEC and the Big 12 will play only 15 of 48 non-conference games against BCS teams (31.25 percent), just slightly ahead of the Big 10’s 29.5 percent.  

No one may have outdone Texas Tech in softening up their non-conference schedules.  For the third year in a row, the Red Raiders will not play any BCS teams – something no other team can dubiously claim. 

Texas Tech is the only team playing no BCS teams and playing two Division I-AA teams.  Last year Texas Tech played Northwest Louisiana State (194), SMU (169), Rice (152) and UTEP (130).  This year, barring a tremendous upset, they will go into conference 4-0, with wins over Eastern Washington, Massachusetts, SMU and Nevada.

In the SEC, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Alabama all went 4-4 in conference and Kentucky was 3-5.  This year Arkansas will play Western Illinois, Louisiana-Monroe, Tulsa and Texas.  Mississippi State will play Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech, SE Louisiana and Georgia Tech.  Alabama will play Arkansas State, Western Kentucky, Tulane and Clemson.  Kentucky will play Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, and Louisville. 

LSU plays no BCS teams in non-conference, scheduling North Texas, Tulane, Troy and Appalachian State! 

Both the SEC and the Big 12 each have contracted for nine bowl games this year for their 12 teams. 

Strength of Schedule

Pac-10 teams are typically ranked in the top 10 in strength of schedule.  From an excellent source of college football statistics, College Football Warehouse ranks teams by strength of schedule by the decade. 

To check prior decades, click on the decade and then click on “Sorted by Schedule Points”.  Over the current decade, nine of the top eleven teams are from the Pac-10.  Only Florida State and Notre Dame intrude on the Pac-10’s dominance of strength of schedule.

With most conferences concerned mainly about meeting their bowl contracts, September is the cruelest month for most college football fans.  Bowl season can be the most challenging.