
Predictions for NHL Stars Most in Need of New Contracts
On July 8, we examined several NHL players most in need of new contracts before the 2017 NHL free-agent period. While one of them (Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn) has since re-signed, such notables as San Jose Sharks defenseman Brent Burns have yet to ink new deals with their respective teams.
Several factors, including age, skills, performance, previous contract and value to their team, will determine how much those on this list could receive. The longer they're unsigned, the more it could cost to re-sign them.
In this slideshow, we'll predict what to expect from these players in 2016-17 and what type of contracts they could receive. As always, you can voice your views in the comments section below.
Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal Canadiens
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Montreal Canadiens center Alex Galchenyuk made the most of his first season as a first-line player, tallying a career-high 30 goals and 56 points. As a result, the 22-year-old could be in line for a five-year contract worth around $5.5 million per season.
Over the course of his four-year NHL career, Galchenyuk has steadily improved into a quality offensive player. Last season, he was among the Canadiens' top scorers. Given his youth, he's yet to reach his playing prime. His best seasons are still ahead of him.
Galchenyuk is entering the final season of a two-year, $5.6 million contract with an annual salary-cap hit of $2.8 million. It could cost the Habs double that annual salary on a lengthy extension to retain him. Should he better last season's stats, the Canadiens could be looking at $6 million annually.
As a restricted free agent next summer, Galchenyuk will also have arbitration rights. That gives him additional leverage to push for a big contract.
With the Canadiens missing the playoffs last season in part because of their anemic offense, they cannot afford to get cheap with Galchenyuk if he again reaches the 30-goal mark. He could become one of their highest-paid forwards.
Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers
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Part of the Florida Panthers' core of talented youngsters, left wing Jonathan Huberdeau netted a career-best 20 goals and 59 points in 2015-16. The 2013 winner of the Calder Memorial Trophy could seek a deal comparable to the six-year, $35.4 million contract of linemate Aleksander Barkov.
Huberdeau, 23, is completing a two-year, $6.5 million contract. He can certainly make the case for a deal similar to Barkov's. He's reached the 50-point plateau in each of the last two seasons and was among the Panthers' top scorers in 2015-16.
The Panthers re-signed defenseman Aaron Ekblad and forwards Reilly Smith and Vincent Trocheck to long-term extensions this summer. It stands to reason Huberdeau will be their next significant re-signing.
Given Huberdeau's steady improvement over the last two seasons, he could reach 60 points in 2016-17 for the first time in his career. That'll only buttress his efforts to seek a lucrative deal.
With over $60 million invested in their 2017-18 payroll, an expensive new deal for Huberdeau will bite deeply into their cap space. Management could face shedding a salary or two via trade or buyout to free up room for Huberdeau's new contract.
Tyler Toffoli, Los Angeles Kings
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Los Angeles Kings forward Tyler Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16. Because of the 24-year-old's consistent improvement over the last three seasons, he could pursue an eight-year contract worth around $6 million annually.
Despite his short NHL career, Toffoli quickly became a valuable part of the Kings roster. In addition to being among their offensive leaders, he's a strong two-way player. A versatile performer, he's a center now skating at right wing.
Toffoli also has invaluable playoff experience, helping the Kings win the Stanley Cup in 2014. It's in their best interest to keep him in the fold on a long-term extension.
By the end of 2016-17, Toffoli will become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. He'll be completing a two-year, $6.5 million contract. He could again exceed the 30-goal plateau or reach 60 points next season, further bolstering his case for a rich new deal.
The Kings have over $58 million invested in payroll for 2017-18. A substantial raise for Toffoli plus another modest increase in the salary cap could make it difficult to re-sign other players or bolster their depth via trade or free agency. Management could attempt to shed a salary or two to accommodate a raise for Toffoli.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals
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In his second full season with the Washington Capitals, center Evgeny Kuznetsov enjoyed a breakout performance of 77 points in 82 games. As a result, he could pursue an eight-year contract worth around $6.5 million per season.
Skating alongside Capitals captain and superstar Alex Ovechkin last season, the 24-year-old Kuznetsov proved himself as a top-line forward. He provided the Capitals with an additional measure of scoring punch, emerging as their points leader in 2015-16.
Kuznetsov is slated to become a restricted free agent next July with arbitration rights. He'll be completing a two-year, $6 million contract. His performance last season was worth considerably more than his $3 million average salary.
It's possible Kuznetsov exceeds 70 points in 2016-17, giving him sufficient leverage to seek an expensive and lengthy contract. After tallying more points last season than teammate and fellow center Nicklas Backstrom (70), he could ask for an average salary comparable to Backstrom's $6.7 million.
The Capitals could wait and see how 2016-17 plays out before opening contract discussions with Kuznetsov. If his production falls off, it will shift some leverage in management's favor. Otherwise, they must be prepared to pay up.
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins
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Coming off a career-best 37-goal, 61-point campaign in 2015-16, Boston Bruins left wing Brad Marchand could be poised to cash in big. On July 15, NHL.com's Matt Kalman reported contract talks between the two sides had begun. The 28-year-old could land a seven-year contract worth over $6 million per season.
Over his seven NHL seasons (all with the Bruins), Marchand established himself as an agitating forward with a proven scoring touch. He's reached 20 goals five times and 50-plus points three times.
With the Bruins' roster in transition, Marchand will likely take on more of a leadership role in 2016-17. His playoff experience, which includes helping the Bruins win the Stanley Cup in 2011, also makes him an invaluable part of their lineup.
Next summer, Marchand will be eligible for unrestricted free agency. He's entering the final season of a four-year, $18 million contract worth an average cap hit of $4.5 million. In what could be Marchand's contract year, another 30-plus goal effort is possible.
Given Marchand's value to the Bruins, he's in good position to seek a big raise on a long-term deal. If the Bruins balk, he won't have a problem finding another club willing to pay big bucks for his services via free agency next July.
Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning
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Two-thirds of the Tampa Bay Lightning's Triplet Line (with right wing Nikita Kucherov), left wing Ondrej Palat and center Tyler Johnson will be restricted free agents next July. They could each seek over $6 million per season on seven-year contracts.
While injuries limited Palat to 62 games in 2015-16, he still netted 40 points. The 25-year-old is a proficient playmaker and possesses solid two-way skills. In 2014-15, he finished with 63 points. In 17 games during the 2016 playoffs, he collected 10 points.
Injuries also hampered Johnson last season, limiting the 25-year-old to 38 points in 69 games. When healthy, however, he's a strong offensive presence. During the 2016 playoffs, he tallied 17 points in as many games. He had a 72-point campaign in 2014-15.
Palat and Johnson have proven themselves as key members of the Lightning roster. Barring injury, it's not unreasonable to assume each tallying between 65-75 points next season. They're also only two years away from qualifying for unrestricted free agency and have arbitration rights next summer.
How much Palat and Johnson receive will depend in part upon how much Kucherov gets in his new contract this summer. Salary-cap space could also be an issue. With over $53 million invested in their 2017-18 payroll, the Lightning could make a cost-cutting trade or two to free up sufficient funds for Palat and Johnson.
Ryan Johansen, Nashville Predators
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Nashville Predators center Ryan Johansen is entering the final year of a three-year, $12 million contract. The 23-year-old could seek an eight-year deal worth $7.5 million per season.
While Johansen's average salary is $4 million, he'll earn $6 million in actual salary for 2016-17. To retain his rights, the Predators must offer up a one-year qualifying offer next June worth $6 million.
The Predators acquired Johansen midway through last season from the Columbus Blue Jackets to fill the role of top-line center. A skilled playmaker, he's reached or exceeded 60 points in each of the last three seasons. Approaching his playing prime, he's capable of reaching greater offensive heights. A 75-plus point performance isn't out of the question.
Johansen also has salary arbitration rights next summer, giving him additional leverage to push for a long-term contract. That's a process Predators management probably hope to avoid. Should Johansen enjoy a big offensive performance next season and help Nashville go deep into the 2017 playoffs, they'll face further pressure to re-sign him.
The Predators' highest-paid forward is left wing Filip Forsberg at $6 million annually. Johansen could point to Boston Bruins center David Krejci ($7.25 million annually) as a comparable in justifying a big raise.
Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks
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Last season was a banner one for San Jose Sharks defenseman Brent Burns. As a result, he could seek a seven-year deal worth over $7 million per season.
Burns had a career-best performance in goals (27), assists (48) and points (75), finishing second in scoring among NHL defensemen. The 31-year-old was also an offensive force in the 2016 playoffs. His 24 points ranked second among postseason scorers.
For his efforts, Burns was a finalist for the James Norris Memorial Trophy and named to the NHL's Second All-Star Team. Looking ahead to 2016-17, Burns should remain among the league's leading offensive blueliners.
Having established himself as a crucial member of the Sharks' roster, Burns will seek compensation as one of the league's top defensemen. He's entering the final season of a five-year, $28.8 million contract, with an annual average salary of $5.76 million.
Burns finished third in Norris Trophy voting behind Los Angeles Kings defender Drew Doughty ($7 million annually) and Ottawa Senators rearguard Erik Karlsson ($6.5 million per season). He can make the case that he's worth as much as Doughty, especially with another performance as strong as last season's.
The sticking point for the Sharks could be term. Given Burns' age, he's approaching the period when a player's skills begin to decline. They could offer up $7 million annually on a four- or five-year deal.
Player stats and info via NHL.com and Hockey-Reference. Salary info via Cap Friendly.
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