Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players After Wimbledon 2016
All hail to Andy Murray’s second Wimbledon triumph and third career major. The Scot defeated Milos Raonic in a tight, straight-sets victory over Canada’s Milos Raonic. It punctuated Murray’s place as one of the great champions of the modern era, a resilient competitor who led with his belief as much as his game.
Does Murray now pass world No. 1 Novak Djokovic for the road ahead?
The culmination of tennis’ grandest tournament is an excellent assessment of the world’s top players. Our Bleacher Report top-10 rankings sort the stars according to their 2016 production, with the most weight assigned to recent tournaments that centered around the French Open and Wimbledon.
Furthermore, we project how the top players are expected to contend as the summer continues toward the U.S. Open. Who is hot and who is trending down?
Missing the Cut
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Despite his spirited five-set comeback loss to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga remains on the border of top-10 territory. He had injuries in the French Open and played well at Wimbledon, but must show more consistent, deep results this summer.
The same is true of Marin Cilic who blew a two-sets quarterfinal lead to Roger Federer. As long as he’s healthy and motivated, he should be a threat at the U.S. Open, although defending his semifinal appearance will not be easy. Will he spearhead Croatia to a spirited victory over the U.S. in Davis Cup play this week?
Richard Gasquet retired to compatriot Tsonga in the fourth round, unable to match last year’s Wimbledon semifinal.
Talented, mercurial Nick Kyrgios will continue to get a lot of buzz about his potential to win major tournaments, but getting crushed by Murray in the fourth round also exposed so much about his readiness to compete at the highest level.
10. David Goffin
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One of the pleasant surprises of 2016, Belgian David Goffin gets high marks for semifinal appearances at Indian Wells and Miami, and he competed well at his French Open quarterfinal loss to Dominic Thiem.
Goffin transitioned well to grass, getting to the fourth round and taking the first two sets against Wimbledon runner up Milos Raonic. He nearly made up for a lack of sizable power serving, but could not hold on in that loss.
Expect more good results from Goffin. He’s a keen control artist with his backhand and sense for placing deep balls where opponents must scramble and feel the pressure to deliver from uncomfortable positions. It’s hard to see him winning a major, but he is earning his stripes by going deep in big tournaments.
9. Tomas Berdych
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Welcome back, Big Bird. Usually one of the most consistent players on tour, Tomas Berdych had slipped with his play in early spring and looked like he was on a career decline. Instead, he rebounded nicely by landing in the quarterfinals at the French Open and semifinals at Wimbledon. His losses were to Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, respectively. Not a lot to second guess there.
This could galvanize Berdych for the upcoming summer, although he made the decision not to play in the Davis Cup quarterfinal against France, per the Associated Press via ESPN.
If only Berdych could be rewarded for his years of consistent excellence while deep beneath the shadows of his generation’s legendary stars. He’s a graceful big man with wonderful control and pace on textbook groundstrokes. Would it be too much for the tennis gods to grant him the two-week run of his life to win the 2016 U.S. Open? Possible but very unlikely.
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8. Rafael Nadal
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OK Nadal fans, your hero has earned over 5,000 ATP ranking points in the past year to sit as the No. 4-ranked player in the world. But sitting is the big problem here. Despite his partial renaissance this spring including the crown at Monte Carlo, Nadal continues to be plagued by injuries. He withdrew after two wins at the French Open because of an injured wrist.
He missed Wimbledon and there are doubts surrounding his form with the update from Yibada Sports' Kit Isaiah Bernal that Nadal is skipping the Rogers Cup and hoping to participate in the Olympics next month.
There’s also hope. Nobody has come back more often from career-threatening setbacks. Even with younger players emerging and old rivals flourishing, Nadal can never be counted out. He’s earned the benefit of doubts after history’s greatest results on clay and the conversations that used to frequently rank his status as perhaps the greatest player of all time.
But 2015 looms large as a model for decline and the struggle to return. Aging wear and tear is a huge concern. We're moving Nadal down four spots as we hold our breath that he can get back to the kind of tennis we saw him play in April and May. The quicker he gets back healthy, the more likely he will contend again.
7. Dominic Thiem
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After peaking at the French Open semifinals, Dominic Theim was a flop at Wimbledon, falling in the second round to rising lefty Jiri Vesely.
Otherwise, Thiem has been a tireless warrior, grinding away for a variety of titles on clay, hard courts and grass. His growing toughness has been a refiner’s fire in his well-deserved status as a top-10 player.
The worry is that Thiem will exhaust himself with too much play. He withdrew from the upcoming Hamburg tournament, according to Tennis World. Then again, he might need a few weeks of rest if he is to keep ascending as summer wears on to the U.S. Open and the Far East swing.
There’s a lot to like about Thiem’s potential with his powerful groundstrokes and professionalism. He’s only 22 years old, so he could get a major title breakthrough soon or the years could build a frustrating wall that has held back second-tier stars like Berdych, Tsonga and David Ferrer.
6. Kei Nishikori
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He’s the more athletic version of David Goffin with his greater abilities to get in position on almost any ball and hit with impressive angles. He was solid once again this spring, but painful ribs did not allow him to complete his Wimbledon quarterfinal match to nemesis Marin Cilic who most famously defeated Nishikori in the 2014 U.S. Open final.
Will Nishikori stave off his frequent nagging injuries this summer? Is he physical enough to top bigger stars in the late stages of majors? It’s the usual story and why he is rarely regarded as an eventual major winner.
5. Stan Wawrinka
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It’s fair to wonder if the magic has ended for two-time major winner Stan Wawrinka. The 30-year-old Swiss with the powerful but erratic groundstrokes has been more off than on throughout the spring and early summer.
His highlight as a French Open semifinalist was a creditable title defense, but it wasn’t too surprising that he went down to defeat in the second round on Wimbledon’s quick grass.
What about the future? While Djokovic and Murray consistently compete for almost any title they enter, Wawrinka is no longer playing like a fearless underdog champion. It’s that confidence edge and everyman demeanor that has been missing most, and if his footwork or strength erode at all, the Swiss will fade sooner than later.
4. Milos Raonic
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Props to Milos Raonic for his rise as a legitimate major contender. The big Canadian lost to Andy Murray in the Australian Open semifinals, a gruelling five-setter that may have helped his resolve with his instant classic Wimbledon semifinal five-set victory over Roger Federer.
Had Raonic defeated Murray, he would be worthy of the No. 3 ranking in our countdown. But like Federer he is still on the outside of consummating a major title in the recent reign of Novak Djokovic. He has at least proven to be a top contender for the U.S. Open series.
There are positive additions to Raonic's game that support his cannon serve. Coaching help from legendary John McEnroe has helped him polish ever-improving net skills and touch, but especially with his more aggressive mentality to attack. Plus, Raonic has been positive, learning to shrug off mistakes and stay cool to execute important volleys.
He deserves our No. 4 ranking because he is also more likely to win a major in the near future than the players listed ahead of him. Even Federer might be behind Raonic with this standard.
3. Roger Federer
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Triumph and misery often walk hand in hand. Roger Federer, once the most prolific winner in tennis has had more than his share of the latter in 2016. Forget about the injuries and setbacks even while holding on as one of the top three players in the world. His list of tough-luck losses in majors is growing.
At Wimbledon, Federer had the opportunity to win the title without having to go through Djokovic. He staved off four match points against Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals, but he lost his semifinal match to Milos Raonic while living on the razor’s edge of missed breakpoints and service lapses.
His margin for error must be nearly perfect if he is to win elusive major title No. 18.
While there’s no question that Federer has a more immediate chance to continue with consistent results than most other top-10 stars, it’s also apparent that Raonic, Thiem and other rising young players won’t be too long in coming for their increasing major opportunities.
Enjoy Federer as long as he plays. He’s got the Olympics, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open to return with the kind of championship tennis that has bypassed him in 2016. Time enough to keep contending as his favorite part of the year is just beginning.
2. Andy Murray
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What a delight and a relief for Andy Murray to soak up the sunshine and his third career major, three years after his last major title at Wimbledon. He’s still got a lot of ground to gain if he is to catch Novak Djokovic, but he’s the clear No. 2 player in the world and it’s not even close.
Murray has evolved in 2016 with greater play on clay, highlighted by the French Open final and another worthy challenge to Djokovic. He’s healthy and consistent, boasts one of the great return games of all-time and he has the Midas touch with coach Ivan Lendl, who reunited with Murray in recent weeks.
Murray should contend for the U.S. Open title now that a lot of pressure has been removed from chronic losses to Djokovic. Their rivalry could heat up.
1. Novak Djokovic
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How odd to look at a second week in a major that did not include Novak Djokovic. For a couple weeks, the Serb held all four major titles, the only player in tennis history to hold a “Grand Slam” on three different surfaces. (A July through June calendar Slam should not be regarded as one whit less than a February through September calendar slam, if you care for this digression.)
Djokovic’s still the overwhelming favorite in just about any tournament he enters, but each chance at a major from here on could be increasingly difficult.
It’s good to be king, but it’s draining. Everyone else shows up to play like as if the fate of the world were at stake. Tennis fans often root for other players to come along and create more competitive balance. Injuries and inexplicable losses can unravel the very best. There are always questions and doubts from media and observers.
Djokovic might have already proven to be the most complete, dominant player ever. There’s no reason at all to move him down from No. 1 in the rankings. He’s probably the player that most looks forward to competing for the U.S. Open title and back-to-back years with three majors.
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