Way-Too-Early 2016-17 NBA Rookie Award Predictions
The 2016 NBA draft already feels like a distant memory.
We've seen Ben Simmons and Jaylen Brown, the Nos. 1 and 3 picks, ball out for the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics, respectively, at the Utah Summer League. Ditto for Los Angeles Clippers newcomer Brice Johnson in Orlando. Come Friday, the rest of this year's rookies will be put to the test in the sweltering heat of Las Vegas.
A predictive exercise like this will be easier once we've gotten a glimpse of all the fresh entrants. At the very least, we could bide some time until the league is nearly done reshuffling its deck via free agency...
But in the wise words of Ty Dolla $ign and Co., or nah. Let's have a look at who's likely to fill out the All-Rookie teams and nab Rookie of the Year, based on individual ability and potential roles on their respective squads.
Second Team: Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics
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There's no guarantee Jaylen Brown will be with the Boston Celtics when the 2016-17 season tips off. The C's acted aggressively to move the No. 3 pick (among other chips) prior to the June draft.
According to the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett, Boston won't quit its pursuit of another star yet, even after landing Al Horford in free agency: "Sources tell us the C's are still holding the line on their offers from prior to the draft. They will make trades if teams come around to their price."
Wherever Brown winds up, he'll get a chance to show what a multiskilled bulldozer he can be on the wing. During his summer-league debut in Salt Lake City, the Cal product got to the free-throw line 17 times, converting 11.
Brown's single performance in a scrimmage against rookies, sophomores and erstwhile free agents is hardly a guaranteed harbinger, but if Brown can translate that attacking mentality to the NBA level in some capacity, he'll have a foundation from which to build out the rest of his game as a pro.
Should Brown remain in Boston, his competition would still be up in the air. Jonas Jerebko might be in the mix on the wing. If the C's keep Amir Johnson, they could slot Horford at power forward, thereby making Jae Crowder a more full-time 3.
But Brown could quickly be Boston's best bet at small forward, regardless of who else is on the roster.
Second Team: Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
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Joel Embiid is already a social-media MVP. This season, he could (finally) be one of the most important Philadelphia 76ers.
According to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, Embiid was "cleared to start light scrimmaging in five-on-five settings." That's a small step for most prospects, but a big one for Embiid, who sat out what would've been his first two pro seasons while recovering from back and foot injuries.
The Sixers still have high hopes for the 22-year-old. They used the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft to pluck Embiid out of Kansas, pegging him as a major building block.
And for good reason. The 7-footer has been a quick study on the court since taking up basketball as a teenager. He's since molded himself into a package of size, footwork, touch and intelligence that's exceedingly rare at any level. Had he not been banged up coming out of college, Embiid may have been the No. 1 pick, ahead of fellow Jayhawk Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.
Instead, he fell to Philly, a team that nabbed Nerlens Noel the year before and drafted Jahlil Okafor the year after. If the Sixers thin out their frontcourt before the 2016-17 season begins, Embiid could find himself suiting up next to fellow newcomers Ben Simmons and Dario Saric.
Heck, Embiid might be good enough to carve out a starring role in Philadelphia even with Noel and Okafor around. But without any assurances about his health or his place in Brett Brown's hierarchy—and without an opportunity to see what he can do against live competition at Las Vegas Summer League—Embiid is a much safer bet for second-team All-Rookie than first.
Second Team: Caris LeVert, SG, Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets' backcourt isn't brimming with talent.
Joe Johnson and Jarrett Jack are gone. Jeremy Lin and Tyler Johnson, the team's top targets in free agency, were both backups at their previous stops. Sean Kilpatrick came on strong late in the season, but he remains a work in progress.
That could be just the opening Caris LeVert needs to assert himself as a rookie. The senior out of Michigan arrives in Brooklyn by way of a draft-day trade that sent Thaddeus Young to the Indiana Pacers. LeVert had long been touted as a lottery-caliber talent but wound up going 20th overall on account of left foot injuries.
The Nets, for their part, are well-versed in fickle foot problems. They've overseen Brook Lopez's recovery from his own breaks to play 145 of a possible 164 regular-season games over the past two campaigns. LeVert won't play in the Las Vegas Summer League, but could be ready to go once the 2016-17 schedule tips off.
Brooklyn's new coaching staff, led by Kenny Atkinson, should know what to do with LeVert whenever he's healthy. The 6'7" swingman has the skills to be a secondary scorer while switching between positions on both ends.
LeVert may not get many looks this season, since he'll be playing for a Nets team that's shaping up to be one of the NBA's worst. But with that futility could come major minutes and, along with them, the production needed to nab an All-Rookie nod.
Second Team: Jamal Murray, PG, Denver Nuggets
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Like Embiid in Philly, Jamal Murray will have to unclog a logjam in the Denver Nuggets' backcourt.
If the Nuggets plan to play him at the point, he'll have to compete with Emmanuel Mudiay, who found his footing toward the end of a rocky rookie season, and veteran Jameer Nelson. If shooting guard is Murray's destiny, he'll be up against Gary Harris, Will Barton and fellow incoming first-rounder Malik Beasley.
With 6'4" size, handle and shooting ability—only Stephen Curry hit more threes as an NCAA freshman than Murray, who nailed 113 at Kentucky—the 19-year-old could split time between backcourt spots as a combo guard. Murray has the stroke to spread the floor next to Mudiay and the on-ball skill to initiate the offense when he sits.
Either way, playing time won't come easily. The Nuggets, with their returning core of veterans (Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler and Barton), could be good enough to steal a playoff spot in the now-jumbled Western Conference.
But if Denver gets to that level, and Murray emerges from a crowded perimeter crop to boost the team's resurgence, he'll be recognized league-wide for his contributions.
Second Team: Denzel Valentine, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Denzel Valentine's fate could have everything to do with Dwyane Wade's, now that both are Chicago Bulls, as the former Miami Heat star agreed to a deal with Chicago on Wednesday night, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Between Wade, Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo, the Bulls' starting perimeter positions are (presumably) all spoken for. That would fling Valentine into a competition with Tony Snell and Jerian Grant for backup minutes at the point and on the wings.
Unlike Snell and Grant, Valentine is uniquely equipped to man multiple positions on both ends of the floor. The 22-year-old often ran the offense at Michigan State and shot 40.8 percent from three during his college career.
"He makes a lot of players better in terms of his ability to play in transition, play the ball ahead, play off pick-and-rolls, all real positives to us," Bulls general manager Gar Forman said, per team reporter Sam Smith. "But on top of his basketball ability, we did a lot of work on his background, spent time on Michigan State's campus, and to hear the people rave about his makeup and character was just incredible."
That all-around package of skills and intangibles should give Valentine a leg-up in the competition to become Chicago's next big bench weapon.
First Team: Dragan Bender, PF, Phoenix Suns
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Between Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss, one of the two should play big minutes at power forward for the Phoenix Suns this season. Right now, Bender looks like the better bet to squeeze into a frontcourt rotation that will feature Alex Len, Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley.
Bender has already competed against grown men, however sparingly, since turning pro at the age of 15. His ability to shoot threes and run the floor as a 7-footer should fit nicely on a Suns squad that, with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight at the helm, figures to push the pace at every opportunity.
Chriss could be a factor as well. The 6'9" forward out of Washington was arguably the pre-eminent athlete in this year's draft and did some dabbling of his own from beyond the arc in college (21-of-60).
Phoenix liked them both enough to take Bender at No. 4 and trade up to snag Chriss. They'll get to show off their respective skills—and, perhaps, differentiate themselves—during the upcoming Las Vegas Summer League.
But while Chriss burst onto the scene this past season, Bender has been on NBA radars for years. That doesn't guarantee Bender a bigger role, but it does point to talent that's yet to be fully tapped.
First Team: Kris Dunn, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Kris Dunn's spot on an All-Rookie team will be contingent, in part, on what role the Minnesota Timberwolves foresee for their newest rookie—and what they do with the rest of their roster.
He could come off the bench behind incumbents Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine. With his defensive prowess and improving jump shot, Dunn could start next to Rubio, with LaVine settling in as Minnesota's sixth man. Or the T-Wolves could continue to shop one or more of their guards, just as they reportedly did during the 2016 draft, per ESPN's Marc Stein.
Dunn didn't draw such strong interest from so many teams by accident. The two-time Big East Player of the Year was the top guard prospect in his class and comes with a reputation for hard-nosed all-around play and stifling defense.
Those skills should suit Dunn well in the NBA, especially with a coach like Tom Thibodeau overseeing his development. As Dunn told Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman on draft day:
"Coach Thibs, he's a defensive coach, and some say my greatest strength is defense even though I know I have to improve in order to guard the elite scorers that are in the NBA. And I feel like Coach Thibs can help me improve my defensive skills. He worked with a lot of great point guards. I'm trying to work in that stature, and I think Coach Thibs can definitely help me.
"
If Thibodeau does half as well with Dunn as he did Derrick Rose, the T-Wolves should have another sensational rookie on their hands.
First Team: Buddy Hield, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans will need somebody—anybody—other than Anthony Davis to score for them this season. Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans can help when healthy, but with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson gone and Solomon Hill coming in, the Pelicans are still thin on bona fide weapons
Enter Buddy Hield, the reigning college player of the year. He is at once the best scorer and the most NBA-ready among his incoming peers, after averaging 25 points per game and hitting 45.7 percent of his threes as a senior at Oklahoma.
However long it takes Hield to adjust to the NBA three, his voice should be fit for the league already.
"He's just been vocal, right from the beginning of the first huddle he was talking to guys and getting guys going," said Robert Pack, the Pelicans' summer-league head coach, per the Times Picayune's John Reid. "That's infectious when you get a guy that's talking to each one of the guys who is supposed to be a leader on the summer league team. It's rubbed off on everybody, and we had a really good high-energy practice today."
Once the 2016-17 season starts, it'll be up to Hield's stroke to do the talking, what with other veterans ready to assume the leadership mantle in New Orleans. Should Hield's shot hold up, it won't take him long to establish value as a floor-stretcher.
First Team: Brandon Ingram, SF, Los Angeles Lakers
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Brandon Ingram will fill Kobe Bryant's old locker, but he would be lucky to inherit anything close to the Black Mamba's shot load any time soon.
He'll get his fair share of looks from the perimeter to help open driving lanes for D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson. And with his scoring skill, Ingram might be capable of more than that, despite his slender frame.
"I think if you can score the ball, you can play at any level," Ingram said at his introductory press conference, per ESPN.com's Jovan Buha. "I don't think it's a big adjustment for me. Just playing against stronger guys, I know I have to adjust a little bit, like I did at the college level."
That adjustment will take some time, which Ingram will have. Luol Deng's arrival on a four-year, $72 million deal provides a veteran wing to learn from until Ingram's ready to take over full time.
"I haven't talked to him yet, but I plan to pick his brain on different things," Ingram said. "He's been in this league for a very long time. I hear nothing but good things about him. In practice, I plan on competing against him each and every day. It's up to the coaches who starts."
If the 18-year-old can earn and hold a spot ahead of Deng, he'll get all the attempts he needs to shoot his way toward the top of this year's rookie class.
First Team: Ben Simmons, F, Philadelphia 76ers
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The All-Rookie first team figures to be headlined by Ben Simmons, the best prospect in this year's class.
According to NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper, the Philadelphia 76ers plan to start Simmons as a point-forward and eventually transition him into a more dedicated role at point guard.
"I think the point guard position is the hardest position to play in the NBA as a first-year player, let alone as a person that's played a 4-man his whole life," Sixers coach Brett Brown told Howard-Cooper. "He would be all over the place. It seems quite reckless to do it, almost unfair. I hope to continue to be ambitiously creative at tapping into what he really can do, and in my heart of hearts I think he can do it."
So far, Simmons has shown he may have chops to pull off such a transition. This year's No. 1 pick debuted in the Utah Summer League with 10 points, eight rebounds, five assists and just one turnover.
To translate that shift into the regular season, Simmons will need plenty of time and leeway to work through mistakes and learn the ropes of being a pro. If he gets that opportunity—and the Sixers surround him with plenty of players capable of putting the ball in the basket—he should have no trouble piling up accolades.
Rookie of the Year: Ben Simmons
11 of 11At 6'10" and 240 pounds, with the court vision and ball-handling ability of a guard, Simmons is equipped to be an all-court terror from the get-go for the Philadelphia 76ers. He showed more than glimpses of his gifts during his summer-league debut in Salt Lake City (see video above).
The 19-year-old will have every opportunity to showcase his full range of talents throughout the upcoming campaign. The Sixers are short on playmakers, and as mentioned previously, Simmons is expected to fill that role early.
There will be ups and downs, good games and bad, memorable moments and monumental mistakes. But all of it will be geared toward grooming Simmons as the Sixers' next superstar, the bounty for all the misery they and their fans have endured the past three seasons.
And, so far, Simmons seems poised to handle whatever pressure comes his way.
"He's literally the nicest kid I ever met," Sixers guard T.J. McConnell told the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey. "He's going to fit in here. He works hard. For being the No. 1 pick, he's the most humble kid I've seen."
Some strong numbers from Simmons, coupled with substantial team-wide improvement from last season's 10-win debacle, should be enough to earn the Australian phenom Rookie of the Year honors.
