What to Expect from Auston Matthews, the Atypical Star of the 2016 Draft

That Auston Matthews is American is just the tip of the iceberg, though it should be noted.

Patrick Kane (2007) was the last first overall pick from the United States. In between, seven Canadians and a Russian have been the top players on draft day. It's no longer shocking for an American to claim the top honours at the draft, but it remains uncommon.

Even among American selections, he's unique as a product of the desert. Kane's hometown is Buffalo, New York, and he's typical among top American players in that he was born in a northern state. Matthews hales from Scottsdale, Arizona, where even in December, the average low is six degrees north of the freezing mark.

Matthews' Hispanic heritage sets him apart in a league NPR's David Greene described as "by far the whitest" in American sports. His father recalled to the Hockey News' Ryan Kennedy how jibes would fly in both English and Spanish during competitive card games.. For his 18th birthday, his mother cooked a feast of authentic Mexican food for Matthews and the rest of his teammates.

Then there's the matter of those teammates.

Matthews celebrated his 18th birthday in Switzerland, and he is now the first player to go No. 1 at the NHL draft to come out of the Swiss-A league. Rather than following the typical path through a junior or college program in North America, Matthews decided to go to Zurich for his draft year. European players frequently play in Canada or the United States to get used to North American culture and on-ice play; it's unheard of for the reverse to occur.

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Matthews went anyway, and it's easy to understand why.

Marc Crawford, who presided over 1,000 games and won a Stanley Cup as an NHL head coach, oversaw his development. NHL veterans Robert Nilsson, Marc-Andre Bergeron and Ryan Shannon shared the locker room with him. David Rundblad left the Chicago Blackhawks midway through the 2015-16 season to play on that Zurich team. When the Lions' season ended, Rundblad stepped back into Chicago's lineup for the NHL playoffs.

Even against that formidable backdrop, Matthews stood out.

2016's International Scouting Services draft guide noted: "Easily the best, most talented player in the Swiss NLA. He adapted instantly to playing against men."

Matthews' scoring numbers stand up under scrutiny. With 24 goals, he was the leading goal scorer for the best team in Switzerland and came within two of the overall league lead. Given that he missed 14 games, it's easy to understand why ISS felt comfortable making such a claim.

Past NHLers have done worse.

When NHL owners locked their players out at the conclusion of the last collective bargaining agreement, Switzerland was a popular destination for skaters looking for work. A number of top players competed in that country's best league, and while it's not fair to compare directly—the lockout made for a stronger league—we can form some appreciation for how good Matthews was this year.

Player	Season	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GP
John Tavares	2012-13	28	17	25	42	1.50
Henrik Zetterberg	2012-13	23	16	16	32	1.39
Patrice Bergeron	2012-13	21	11	18	29	1.38
Tyler Seguin	2012-13	29	25	15	40	1.38
Auston Matthews	2015-16	36	24	22	46	1.28
Patrick Kane	2012-13	20	13	10	23	1.15
Joe Thornton	2012-13	33	12	24	36	1.09
Jason Spezza	2012-13	28	9	21	30	1.07
Rick Nash	2012-13	17	12	6	18	1.06
Logan Couture	2012-13	22	7	16	23	1.05
Dustin Brown	2012-13	16	8	5	13	0.81

In his book Hockey Abstract, Rob Vollman noted that players travelling directly from playing in the Swiss-A to the NHL generally retained 46 percent of their offence in the period prior to the 2005 lockout and 36 percent in the period afterward. We can blend those two numbers to create the largest sample size and then use that as an approximation of how a player would perform had he been in the NHL.

In Matthews' case, that means we'd expect him to retain 41 percent of what he scored in Switzerland. Over an 82-game NHL season, that would project to a 22-goal, 43-point campaign. That number is of course assuming no improvement from Matthews.

Playing in Switzerland was a positive in that Matthews knows what NHL players look and play like. He knows how an NHL coach operates and what he expects. Matthews is a rarity as a prospect, both steeped in the North American style of play and off-ice culture but at the same time already used to competing against men. That should allow him to step into the Toronto Maple Leafs' lineup and help right away.

That immediate help is a secondary issue for Toronto, however. The primary consideration is what Matthews will do in his prime—how he'll look centering the team's top line at the age of 24 or 25 or even into his 30s. He's going to be a foundation piece for the Maple Leafs' rebuild and potentially even for a contending Toronto team.

He has the talent for the formidable expectations he'll face with the Leafs. He's taken an unconventional route to hockey's highest level. Now he'll have his chance to be equally brilliant in the spotlight of the NHL's biggest market.