Cooking Up Last-Minute Trades Before the 2016 NBA Draft
Peel your eyes from the NBA's draft rumor mill for a minute. Rehashing Twitter timelines every two seconds is for bystanders. We're doers.
It's our draft-day duty to make imaginary trades on behalf of NBA general managers. These moves aim to shake up the Association's competitive landscape. In the spirit of Thursday's selection process, they will involve picks from this year's pageant exchanging hands at every turn.
Some of these trades cannot reach completion until the league's salary picture resets after July's moratorium period. In those instances, which will be denoted, the player selected at a certain spot would become part of the deal.
Philly and Phoenix Tango
Philadelphia 76ers Receive: PG Eric Bledsoe, No. 34 pick
Phoenix Suns Receive: SF/PF Robert Covington, C Nerlens Noel, No. 24 pick
The Phoenix Suns are once again ready to break up their backcourt band. Sort of. From Sporting News' Sean Deveney:
"Another young veteran who will be firmly on the trading block is Eric Bledsoe of the Suns, as Phoenix seeks to rebalance its guard-heavy roster and hopes to add frontcourt help. The Suns have interest in drafting point guard Kris Dunn of Providence with the No. 4 pick, which would give them a rookie to develop while cashing in on Bledsoe’s value.
"
The Philadelphia 76ers want Dunn as well. He is their entire motivation for talking shop with the Boston Celtics about their No. 3 slot, per CSNNE's Tim Welsh (via colleague Gary Tanguay). But Beantown isn't biting on Philadelphia's offer built around Jahlil Okafor, according to ESPN.com's Chad Ford. However, Nerlens Noel is also available, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
Eric Bledsoe is a phenomenal alternative for Philly if the Celtics are playing hard/impossible to get and won't bite on Noel. As a known commodity, Bledsoe's the better option overall. He is still just 26, a borderline All-Star when healthy and gives Philly its first NBA-caliber point guard since Jrue Holiday.
Though Bledsoe is best with the ball in his hands, he's no stranger to working away from it. He has split ball-handling duties with Goran Dragic (plus Isaiah Thomas) and Brandon Knight over the last three seasons. His 35.8 percent success rate on spot-up threes would make him a solid complement to probable No. 1 pick Ben Simmons.
Dealing Bledsoe to Philadelphia frees the Suns to select Dunn at No. 4, provided the Celtics pass on him at No. 3. A tricycle of Devin Booker, Dunn and Knight will eventually leave defenses quaking where they stand. Dunn isn't the best shooter, but he did drill 37.2 percent of his triples as a senior at Providence, while Booker and Knight are more than capable of orbiting the floor around him.
Noel is a no-brainer for Phoenix, even with his restricted free agency in 2017. The Suns ranked in the middle of the pack in rim protection during the regular season and, with 33-year-old Tyson Chandler aging, they don't have a true pick-and-roll diver up front.
Noel held opponents to 48.6 percent shooting at the iron and will make for a great rim-runner once he plays alongside actual NBA guards.
Robert Covington, at 6'9", is an ideal pickup for a team that doesn't have someone who can shoot and defend at power forward (hi, Suns free agents Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic). Covington drained a respectable 35.3 percent of his long-range missiles in 2015-16 and collected more defensive win shares (2.1) than anyone on the Sixers not named Nerlens (2.8).
Trading Okafor, as opposed to Covington and Noel, makes more sense for the Sixers, but he doesn't get them Bledsoe. They have a logjam up front and would need to reinvest in Noel next summer anyway. Plus, they could try replacing all Covington does in free agency, using their mountains of cap space.
3-Team Ripple Effect
(Post-Moratorium)
Charlotte Hornets Receive: C Greg Monroe
Milwaukee Bucks Receive: C Tyson Chandler, SG Jeremy Lamb, No. 28 pick
Phoenix Suns Receive: PF/C Spencer Hawes
In this theoretical world of hopes and draft-day dreams, Phoenix must find a new home for Chandler after acquiring Noel. The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the best—and only—fits for the remaining three years and roughly $39 million on his contract, mostly because of Greg Monroe.
Monroe doesn't (and never did) work on Milwaukee's roster. As a lackluster rim protector, he compromises the team's defensive approach from 2014-15, and his post play did nothing to improve the offense.
Chandler, while almost eight years Monroe's senior, has rim protection numbers that were worse this past season but would improve behind staunch perimeter defenders like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
Along with John Henson, Chandler allows the Bucks to cut down on clock-killing post-ups and incorporate more pick-and-rolls into the offense. And his contract won't look that bad amid a rising salary cap. Even if it does, grabbing Jeremy Lamb's reasonable deal (three years, $21 million) and the No. 28 pick offsets the financial burden.
Unlike Milwaukee, the Charlotte Hornets will have no problem covering for the 26-year-old Monroe. He is a younger version of Al Jefferson, 31, and head coach Steve Clifford has deployed an above-average defense while working around him for three years.
Charlotte must renounce the free-agent holds on Big Al and at least one of Courtney Lee and Marvin Williams to absorb Monroe's salary, but that's not a big deal. Jefferson is past his prime; Lee is expendable if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is healthy; and the Hornets only own Williams' Early Bird rights, so there's a strong chance he prices himself out of town.
Spencer Hawes doesn't add much value to the Suns' rebuild. But he will make under $12.4 million over the next two seasons—which is less than Chandler will earn in 2015-16 ($13.6 million). He may even end up being an expiring contract, since he holds a player option for 2017-18. His 35.3 percent career clip from downtown also insures Phoenix against overpaying for Leuer's and Teletovic's frontcourt shooting in free agency.
Plus, with Chandler gone, the Suns need only worry about divvying up minutes at the 5 between Alex Len and Noel—two restricted-free-agents-to-be whom they need to evaluate ahead of next summer.
Chicago Commits to a Rebuild
Denver Nuggets Receive: SG/SF Jimmy Butler
Chicago Bulls Receive: SF Wilson Chandler, SG Gary Harris, No. 7 pick, No. 15 pick
"I wouldn't call it a rebuild," Chicago Bulls general manager Gar Forman told reporters of trading Derrick Rose to the New York Knicks, a move K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune first reported. "I guess I would call it a retool."
Except moving Rose is an admission that the current core isn't good enough. Robin Lopez's arrival all but ensures Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah will leave in free agency, and Chicago should have Jimmy Butler follow them out the door.
Yes, Butler will be 27 in September and is just one season into a five-year, $90 million pact that looks like a steal in the new salary-cap climate. But there are a ton of teams, including the Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves, trying to pry him out of Chicago, according to Ford and Stein.
That aggressive interest, if nothing else, suggests the Bulls aren't married to Butler. Forman wouldn't even commit to rebuilding—excuse me, retooling—around him after dealing Rose, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell. Besides, as Friedell pointed out, the latest trade is the beginning, not the end, of something:
It will nevertheless take a monster offer for the Bulls to part with Butler. And that's exactly what the Denver Nuggets have, and Gary Harris is the carrot. He won't turn 22 until September and has a high ceiling.
This past season, his second as a pro, he averaged 13.8 points, 2.2 assists and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes while swishing 35.4 percent of his treys. Consider the last six players to reach those touchstones before their 22nd birthdays: Stephen Curry, Paul George, James Harden, Holiday (twice), Kyrie Irving (twice) and Brandon Jennings.
Wilson Chandler would bolster the Bulls' perimeter rotation by a considerable margin. He can man shooting guard, small forward or power forward and cleared 34 percent shooting from deep in four of his last five seasons. While he didn't play in 2015-16 due to a hip injury and won't be the face of a rebuilding squad at 29, Chandler offers great contractual value. He won't earn more than $12.8 million in a single season and could come off the books as early as 2018 (player option).
Those No. 7 and No. 15 picks are good starting points for the Bulls' reclamation project. They will have an excess of bodies on the roster after making this move. But they can, and should, look to sell off veterans (like Taj Gibson) whose windows no longer align with their own.
Adding Butler, meanwhile, is a borderline necessity for the Nuggets. They have too much undefined talent and must start consolidating picks and prospects. They can even fork over their third and final first-rounder of this draft (No. 19) if that's what it takes to pique the Bulls' interest.
In terms of acquiring a star, there isn't a smoother transition than this. Butler doesn't need the ball in his hands on offense. His three-point percentage plummeted in 2015-16 from .378 to .312. But he should be able to trail Denver's myriad attackers (Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, Emmanuel Mudiay, etc.) and convert high-percentage catch-and-shoot looks.
And there isn't anything to worry about on the defensive end. The Nuggets can stick Butler on the opposition's best scorer. They don't have a player who provides that luxury now, and they become an instant playoff hopeful once they do.
Miniature 3-Team Blockbuster
Chicago Bulls Receive: PG Darren Collison, No. 8 pick
New Orleans Pelicans Receive: SG/SF Marco Belinelli, PG Jerian Grant, SG Ben McLemore
Sacramento Kings Receive: SG/SF Mike Dunleavy, PG Jrue Holiday, SF/PF Doug McDermott
Still chasing the ever-elusive low-end playoff berth, the Sacramento Kings have hit a wall, per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler:
Dangling the No. 8 pick and Darren Collison's expiring deal is the best way for Sacramento to make upgrades that vault it into the Western Conference postseason peripheral. And it's difficult to disparage its return.
Holiday is a fringe All-Star when healthy. He has missed 107 of a possible 246 regular-season contests since joining the New Orleans Pelicans in 2013-14, but his expiring contract presents minimal risk. He shot nearly 36 percent from three when playing off the ball this season, so he works as Sacramento's primary point man or as part of dual-floor general lineups that feature him and free-agent flight-risk Rajon Rondo.
Doug McDermott and Mike Dunleavy are pure shooters Kings head coach Dave Joerger can use to cook up better spacing around clunky DeMarcus Cousins-Willie Cauley-Stein lineups. Both shot better than 39 percent from beyond the arc in 2015-16, and neither breaks the long-term bank.
New Orleans pulls the trigger because it needs help just about everywhere. The offense would dip in appeal without Holiday, but Tyreke Evans has played makeshift point guard before.
Taking fliers on young(ish) pieces like Jerian Grant (23) and Ben McLemore (23) is more important. Holiday's deal comes off the books next season, and the Pelicans aren't at a point in their rebuild where they should be reinvesting in any part of the present nucleus.
McLemore isn't the second coming of Ray Allen. But he can fill the spot-up shooting vacancy free-agent Eric Gordon presumably will leave behind. Grant works as a mid-end point guard prospect. He can't shoot but relentlessly attacks the rim. There is pick-and-roll potential with Anthony Davis, and the Pelicans can surround Grant with shooters, like Marco Belinelli, to milk his penetration.
If you're the Bulls, you embrace the teardown. Butler and Rose are already gone in our hypothetical world. Darren Collison, who was recently arrested on domestic violence charges, can bridge the offensive gap at point guard until 2017. And offloading McDermott should decidedly kill the "Nikola Mirotic defending small forwards" experiment.
Most importantly, the Bulls would own pick Nos. 7, 8, 14 and 15 after completing these last two trades. That's a good place to be if you're hitting reset—something they sorely need to do.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
