Early Odds for Every NHL Team to Win the 2017 Stanley Cup

The 2016 Stanley Cup playoffs showed, among other things, the futility of trying to predict the outcome of an NHL season.

Entering those playoffs, five of the last six Stanley Cups were won by either the Chicago Blackhawks or Los Angeles Kings. Both Chicago and L.A. were knocked out early, with the Kings winning a single game and the Blackhawks failing to advance beyond the first round. The other title in that six-year span was claimed by the Boston Bruins, a team that didn't even qualify to compete in the postseason.

The Pittsburgh Penguins' triumph wasn't exactly unprecedented, as the team had won it all with many of the same stars back in 2009, but in many ways, it too would have caught us by surprise a year ago. This is, after all, a team that had advanced past the second round just once in the seven-year interlude between championships. We might have been even more skeptical had we known in advance the Pens would fire their coach at midseason and start the postseason with its third-string goalie in net.

Nevertheless, we're going to take a stab at ranking each club's chances of winning it all next year. Every general manager in the league needs to have an idea of his team's odds of hoisting the Cup so as to properly map out his summer. For fans, the exercise is more enjoyable than essential, but it's still worthwhile. 

Read on with us, then, as we take a very early look at every team's Stanley Cup chances. 

Vancouver Canucks

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Vancouver Canucks have cap space to play with thanks to a number of big contracts coming off the books. According to General Fanager, the team has 21 of 23 roster spots covered and more than $7.0 million in cap room, and that number could increase if the team decides to buy out veteran wing Alex Burrows. That financial flexibility should allow Vancouver to upgrade its roster. 

Working against them: The Canucks' minus-52 goal differential last season was the worst total in the NHL, and that was despite some pretty strong goaltending from the returning tandem of Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom. The foundation is pretty weak, and even with an influx of talent, the club would need to improve dramatically just to make the playoffs. 

Odds: 350-1

Columbus Blue Jackets

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen has a long history on the amateur-procurement side of the game, establishing his reputation in hockey as a top scout. The Jackets have one of the top prospect pipelines in the NHL, and their minor-league affiliate in Lake Erie, the Monsters, won the AHL championship this past season while leaning heavily on those developing players. There's a lot of room for internal growth here.

Working against them: Incredibly, Columbus finds itself in cap trouble. The team's NHL core—a mediocre lot of no particular accomplishment as a group—is mostly locked up to long-term deals, leaving the Blue Jackets little space to even sign restricted free agent Seth Jones. That doesn't leave a lot of flexibility for the second-worst team in the Eastern Conference to improve.

Odds: 300-1

Arizona Coyotes

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Working in their favour: In a cap-strapped league, the Arizona Coyotes have money to burn. General Fanager has the team down as being less than halfway to the league's salary cap, with nearly $37 million to burn. Naturally, Arizona doesn't have a lot of players under contract and won't spend all the space it does have, but that does give the club an opportunity to augment its existing core of young players.

Working against them: The flip side of Arizona's flexibility is that new general manager Michael Chayka will be building from scratch to some degree, and teams built from scratch generally aren't very good. This is especially true when building on a budget. The Coyotes were one of five teams to post a goal differential of at least minus-30 last season.

Odds: 250-1

Toronto Maple Leafs

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Toronto Maple Leafs hierarchy clearly has a plan. The team's relatively new head coach and general manager both own long and impressive resumes and can be trusted to make good decisions. The prospect system is overflowing, and the Leafs will enter the draft with not only the first overall pick but 11 additional selections. On the whole, the future is bright.

Working against them: The problem with the plan from our perspective is timing. For the most part, the wave of incoming prospects dipped its collective toe in NHL waters late last season, and in all likelihood, that means at least another year of growing pains before we see real improvement. 

Odds: 250-1

Edmonton Oilers

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Connor McDavid is as good as advertised, and he's supported by a reasonably impressive collection of young offensive talent. Additionally, the injury-plagued Oilers should by default be healthier next season. Todd McLellan's return behind the bench gives the club some stability in that department too and should lesson the number of year-over-year adjustments for returning players.

Working against them: For all the talent the Oilers have on paper, they sure struggle to score goals. The defence remains a work in progress, especially on the right side, where the unremarkable Mark Fayne is arguably the club's steadiest contributor. Goaltender Cam Talbot's first year on the job was uneven too, meaning there are concerns at pretty much every position.

Odds: 225-1

Carolina Hurricanes

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Like a lot of teams at this end of our review of the league, the Carolina Hurricanes have a good amount of cap space ($23 million), though also like a lot of teams in this area, they likely have no intention of using it all. Head coach Bill Peters also guided a no-name roster to a pretty decent season by the shot metrics last term, though shooting and save percentage were decidedly less impressive. There's also an eye-catching group of young players who should help spur improvement.

Working against them: Only one team in the NHL had a worse five-on-five save percentage than the Hurricanes, so the decision to re-sign Cam Ward and thereby lock up the entirety of last year's goaltending duo is difficult to explain. Carolina also lacks finishing ability throughout the lineup, and it's hard to imagine that changing much next season.

Odds: 200-to-1

Buffalo Sabres

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

Working in their favour: In 2014-15, the Buffalo Sabres posted a minus-113 goal differential. Last season, the total was minus-21. General manager Tim Murray's aggressive approach to the summer, the arrival of Dan Bylsma behind the bench and growth from a number of key young players all contributed to a vastly improved Buffalo team. The same ingredients, in combination with a pile of cap space, could help the Sabres take another leap forward. 

Working against them: The Sabres still have a decent hole to overcome, and while much of the hard climbing is done, there's always the risk of regression—both at the individual and team levels. Positionally, defence could use some upgrading, particularly on the left side, where Josh Gorges was the team's top option.

Odds: 180-1

Colorado Avalanche

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The list of young talent with the Colorado Avalanche is ridiculous. Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Matt Duchene is an enviable trio to build a team around, while Tyson Barrie is one of the finest offensive defencemen in the NHL. There are also a lot of good, young supporting pieces, some competent veteran support and a pair of quality goaltenders. 

Working against them: The Avalanche were the worst team in the league last season in terms of five-on-five shot metrics, and despite being bailed out to some degree by goaltending, they finished well under water at even strength. The team's management and coach Patrick Roy have a reasonably long record of scoffing at mainstream analytics, but the simple truth is as long as Colorado keeps getting its teeth kicked in on the shot clock, it isn't going to have a chance at a championship. 

Odds: 160-1

Winnipeg Jets

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has taken a slow, cautious approach to building his team, and it appears as though that strategy is on the verge of paying dividends in Manitoba. Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Jacob Trouba (even after a down year for the latter) lead an impressive youth movement, and there's plenty left in the system behind them. Add internal growth to a competent group of existing veterans, and this team could get better in a hurry and stay good for a long time.

Working against them: The Jets were a minus-24 team last year and finished 12 games under .500 despite a four-game winning streak to close out the campaign. It will surprise nobody to learn the beasts of the Central Division had a lot to do with that; quite simply, the Jets have some distance to go before they can stand up to the Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues.

Their record against those three teams in 2015-16 is telling:

• Chicago: 1-3-1, minus-seven goal differential.
• Dallas: 1-3-1, minus-five goal differential.
• St. Louis: 1-3-0, minus-four goal differential.
• Total: 3-9-2, minus-16 goal differential.

Improved special teams would help make up the gap; the Jets were wedged roughly halfway between Chicago and Dallas in terms of five-on-five goal differential but gave it all back and more in other situations. 

Odds: 150-1

Calgary Flames

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Calgary Flames had the worst even-strength goaltending in the NHL last season (168 against), and that's good news because they're basically one good trade away from having the problem fixed. Their timing could not be better given the likelihood of an expansion draft next year in which only one goalie can be protected. 

Stick a quality goaltender behind some impressive young offensive players and a surprisingly deep and capable defence, and the Flames may turn heads with their improvement. 

Working against them: New head coach Glen Gulutzan has the task of wrangling a better performance out of a roster that disappointed last year. Calgary managed just a 48 percent Corsi rating at five-on-five and will need to find a way to better control the flow of play.  

Odds: 125-1

Ottawa Senators

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Ottawa Senators actually had a better goal differential last season than the playoff-bound Detroit Red Wings, and they weren't far from being a break-even team. Ottawa boasts quality goaltenders, a surprisingly young group of forwards with quite a bit of offensive talent and a defence corps headlined by perhaps the best blueliner in the game in Erik Karlsson. 

Working against them: There's a decent argument that Ottawa overachieved at five-on-five last season. The club ranked seventh in save percentage and fifth in shooting percentage for a combined PDO of 101.2. Teams can be built around talented shooters and strong goaltending, but as a rule, contending teams don't depend on those qualities the way the Sens did last year. If either number dives, Ottawa will be significantly worse this coming year than they were in 2016.

Odds: 100-1

Detroit Red Wings

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Dylan Larkin had a superb rookie campaign with the Detroit Red Wings and provides the team with an heir apparent to Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg down the middle. The Red Wings have long had one of the league's deeper prospect pools, slowly developing their young players into key contributors, and thus Larkin is supported by pieces such as Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Riley Sheahan and Petr Mrazek.

As much as Datsyuk and Zetterberg helped carry on the winning tradition after Steve Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov left, there's hope the younger generation of players can carry the torch. 

Working against them: Datsyuk turns 38 this summer and may not return for the final year of his contract. Zetterberg turns 36 early next season; defensive cornerstone Niklas Kronwall will follow a few months after that. Too many players still in key roles' careers are coming to an end, and it's still far from clear whether the next wave of players is ready to step in for them.

Odds: 80-to-1

New Jersey Devils

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Cory Schneider is an elite goaltender, one of the five best starters in the NHL. Teams with that kind of goaltending can never be entirely counted out, and the New Jersey Devils have a number of additional points in their favour, including a near-$10 million gap between the team's current cap hit and the league floor. 

Ray Shero and John Hynes, the team's new general manager and head coach respectively, authored impressive change in their first years on the job. Now they have the ability to dramatically rework the team this summer. 

Working against them: The Devils' 46.2 percent Corsi rating at five-on-five last year was the second-worst number in the league and behind only the Colorado Avalanche. The team's brilliant goaltending and low-event style of play helped mitigate the damage, but to win it all, New Jersey needs to find a way to tilt the ice in its favour. As of today, that's going to be a steep hill to climb.

Odds: 50-1

Boston Bruins

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The core of the 2011 champions is still in place, and as the Pens showed this year, sometimes just a little bit of oxygen can breathe new life into the embers of a previous winner. Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci remain a formidable one-two punch at centre, Zdeno Chara isn't what he was but still towers over most NHL defenceman and Tuukka Rask is still a top goaltender. 

Working against them: The ghost of Dennis Seidenberg was the Boston Bruins' third-most-used defenceman last year, and there's an obvious need for at least two new top-four defencemen, whether found internally or elsewhere. Just six forwards managed 30 or more points last year, and with 30-goal man Loui Eriksson a pending free agent, it's going to be tough enough for the Bruins just to tread water offensively.

Boston has some cap space and some trade resources to play with, but new general manager Don Sweeney will need to follow up an uneven first year with a much stronger sophomore campaign to fully take advantage of them.

Odds: 40-1

Montreal Canadiens

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Montreal Canadiens have had a healthy Carey Price tending net in two of the last three seasons, and in those campaigns, the Canadiens won a total of three playoff rounds and hit at least 100 points in the regular season in each. Despite last year's disappointment, this team should improve dramatically once the league's top goalie takes back his rightful spot as its starter. 

Working against them: Every team wants a franchise goaltender, but the downside is he can paper over a lot of other problems. The Canadiens scored 221 goals in both 2014-15 and 2015-16, but with Price out the goals-against figures ballooned by 47. With Price back, the team will be better, but it's fair to ask whether it's truly good enough to win it all.  

Odds: 35-1

New York Rangers

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Working in their favour: For the first time since 2011, the New York Rangers didn't win a playoff round, but that doesn't mean we should forget how similar this incarnation of the club is to its more successful predecessors. New York went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2014 and came within a game of repeating the feat in 2015; this is not a team far removed from the heights of the Eastern Conference. 

Working against them: Like Montreal, New York leans heavily on its all-world goaltender. When Henrik Lundqvist struggled against Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs, the team had no way of coping. It's fair to ask whether the core of skaters is good enough to win it all. 

Positionally, the blue line is probably the greatest area of concern. Dan Girardi has struggled mightily for some time, and Marc Staal is looking increasingly pedestrian. The potential loss of Keith Yandle to free agency could exacerbate what is already a difficult situation. 

Odds: 30-1

Minnesota Wild

LM Otero/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The arrival of the accomplished Bruce Boudreau behind the bench might be the breath of fresh air the Minnesota Wild need. The forward corps lacks elite point producers but compensates with depth, and Boudreau has long enjoyed a reputation for encouraging his team's most skilled players offensively.

More importantly, Minnesota has been competitive for the last four seasons in a tough division, and it wouldn't take much improvement for the club to be regarded as a true contender. 

Working against them: Positionally, the team's two big problems both stem from a lack of elite talent. On the back end, the club is too dependent on Ryan Suter, its best defenceman. Offensively, Zach Parise's 25 goals represented the high-water mark last year, and there's a need for more game-breaking forwards. 

Odds: 30-1

Philadelphia Flyers

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Philadelphia Flyers have made a steady improvement since the installment of Ron Hextall in the general manager's chair, and under new head coach Dave Hakstol, they made further strides last season. With plenty of young talent in the system and on the roster, there's no reason for that to change.

The team also improved in-season last year. Over the last 25 games of 2015-16, Philadelphia posted a 53.8 percent score-adjusted Fenwick rating. That was the fifth-best total in the NHL, behind Stanley Cup-winning Pittsburgh, Western Conference finalists St. Louis and the San Jose Sharks and the Los Angeles Kings; it's rarefied air and a sign this team isn't that far off. 

Working against them: Pittsburgh may have won it all with an uninspiring collection of defencemen, and the Flyers do have some strong prospects on the way, but the blue line remains an area of concern. Rookie Shayne Gostisbehere offered some hope that those prospects can turn things around in a hurry, but even so, it's hard to imagine this blue-line corps backstopping the Flyers to a Cup next year. 

Odds: 30-1

Florida Panthers

Luis M. Alvarez/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Of the Florida Panthers' top 10 scorers from last season, seven were born in 1990 or later; four of those after January 1, 1993. This is a team with real potential, and it should be remembered it's a team that already won its division last season. 

Working against them: Key players are near the end of the line. Jaromir Jagr, not any of the young hotshots, led the team in scoring last season; he was busy getting drafted in 1990. Pending free agent Brian Campbell was the team's top defenceman. Starting goalie Roberto Luongo turned 37 in April.

There's also regression potential. Florida scored 56 percent of all even-strength goals in its games while taking only 49 percent of the shots; that kind of disparity between shots and goals generally doesn't last over the long term.

Odds: 25-1

Nashville Predators

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Nashville Predators were a strong puck-possession team for the entirety of last season; their 53.6 percent Fenwick rating ranked second in the NHL at even strength. Defensively, their top four stacks up well against pretty much anyone, and the arrival of Ryan Johansen in a midseason trade added a No. 1 centre to an offence in need of such a piece.  

They came within a single game of knocking off eventual Western champ San Jose in the second round. 

Working against them: The Preds have a $7.0 million problem in net. It's impossible to say that with a better starter than Pekka Rinne Nashville might have gone all the way, but there's no question as to what their primary weakness was pretty much all year.

Among playoff teams, only Dallas had a worse five-on-five save percentage than Nashville (and keep in mind Carter Hutton was propping up the Predators' numbers) in the regular season. In the playoffs, Rinne nearly blew the team's first-round series against the Anaheim Ducks with three consecutive mid-.800 save-percentage performances. He followed that up with another run of three games in the same range against San Jose, which ultimately killed whatever chance Nashville had of advancing.

Odds: 25-to-1

New York Islanders

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Working in their favour: It's hard not to like the New York Islanders' balance. The forward corps is led by John Tavares, but the team runs four capable lines. Travis Hamonic is a quality defenceman to lead the blue line, and he's supported by a competent supporting cast. Meanwhile, both Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss proved capable of handling the starting role in net last season. It's a solid group overall. 

Working against them: New York has made mild progress since first looking like a threat in 2012-13, and in 2015-16 the club won its first playoff series since 1993. However, the pace of progress has been slow and arrived in fits and starts. Tavares, Hamonic and others are in their mid-20s, which means we can expect progress to slow further. Maybe it's coaching, or maybe it's just that missing piece, but somehow the team needs to find a way to move beyond "good" and up to "good enough to win the Cup."

Odds: 20-1

St. Louis Blues

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Working in their favour: For a long time, the St. Louis Blues have been a great regular-season team that struggled in the playoffs. That changed in 2016, when the club advanced to the third round for the first time in 15 years.

It's easy to envision a path to a championship for almost any final-four team, and the Blues are no exception. They have a strong core of forwards with a legitimate gamebreaker in Vladimir Tarasenko, they boast a strong defence and Brian Elliott had a tremendous campaign in net. This team really isn't far off. 

Working against them: Just treading water may prove difficult for the Blues. David Backes and Troy Brouwer are both bound for free agency, and it's hard to imagine St. Louis finding the money need to retain both players. Head coach Ken Hitchcock saw much of his staff leave in the offseason and will need to adapt as well.  

Odds: 18-1

Anaheim Ducks

Christine Cotter/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Anaheim Ducks have won their division four years running and are only a single campaign removed from a run to the conference finals in 2015, when they came within a game of knocking off the eventual champion, Chicago. They boast quality and depth at all positions, and in Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, they have one of the league's most dynamic forward duos.

Working against them: The dismissal of coach Bruce Boudreau seems odd; his replacement, Randy Carlyle, did win the Cup with Anaheim in 2007 but couldn't get the team back to those levels in a half-decade of trying and did little to improve his stock during a stint in Toronto. The Ducks are a budget team, which may interfere with the club's ability to improve the roster this summer. 

Odds: 16-1

Dallas Stars

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Dallas Stars are a magnificent offensive team. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are a fantastic starting point, Jason Spezza is well above average as a second-line centre, and the duo of Radek Faksa and Ales Hemsky had wonderful chemistry on the third line in the back half of last season. Dallas scored a league-leading 267 goals thanks to that collection of talent. 

Working against them: The Stars' goaltending was awful last season, and both Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi are still under contract. Defensively, a suspect group could be about to get worse, as three of the four most used playoff defenders are bound for free agency, and one of those (Alex Goligoski) has already been traded away.

Odds: 15-1

San Jose Sharks

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The reigning Western Conference champions put together an impressive postseason in 2016, mostly thanks the same core that has made the San Jose Sharks so good in the regular season for so many years. This is a balanced, capable team with high-end talent and depth at all positions, and one that was carried over the top by a new head coach and some new arrivals. If general manager Doug Wilson can further bolster the roster this summer, San Jose might finally win its first title. 

Working against them: Age is a concern, and while the performance of 2016 made it clear there's still some mileage left in this team, it's going to be interesting to see how a number of over-30 players respond to the long grind of this year's playoff run. A related lack of team speed was exposed in the final and will need to be addressed.

Odds: 15-to-1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Tampa Bay Lightning have emerged as a team to be reckoned with in the East. Even robbed of Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman for much of the postseason, the Bolts managed to claw their way to the third round and push Pittsburgh to seven games before bowing out. This on the heels of their trip to the finals in 2015 makes it clear this is one of the top clubs in the NHL.

Like most of the teams at this end of the spectrum, Tampa Bay has a quality roster with top-end talent and depth at every position.

Working against them: Stamkos is eligible for free agency, and if he leaves, it will be a big blow to the team's ability to generate offence. Additionally, a number of the team's older veterans had disappointing campaigns and will need to rebound for the Lightning to reach their full potential. 

Odds: 15-1

Los Angeles Kings

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Los Angeles Kings have won two Stanley Cups in the last five seasons and also enjoyed another deep playoff run between victories. They are a dominant team by shot metrics at five-on-five. They have a brilliant one-two punch at centre with Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter, a franchise cornerstone in defenceman Drew Doughty and a Conn Smythe-winning starting goaltender in Jonathan Quick.

They are one of the most dominant teams of the last decade in the NHL.

Working against them: Los Angeles has not won a playoff round in two years for a variety of reasons. The salary cap is a constant concern and may well cost them the services of Milan Lucic and others this summer. Depth, especially on defence, was exposed in their first-round loss this past spring. Bad contract decisions are reducing the team's ability to renew itself. 

Odds: 13-1

Chicago Blackhawks

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Working in their favour: Like the Kings, the Chicago Blackhawks have towered over the league in recent years, but they have won both more often and more recently. The one-two punch of the Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane lines has proved difficult for other clubs to handle, as has the team's formidable top four on defence. Goaltender Corey Crawford also seems to increase in his importance to the team on an annual basis. The Cup-winning core is still largely intact.

Working against them: Also like the Kings, salary issues and the ability to hang onto depth have been problems for Chicago. This year is not an exception. The Blackhawks' five-on-five play slipped badly last year, and the club was only bailed out by virtue of its special teams; the challenge is to improve those weaknesses on a budget.

Odds: 11-1

Washington Capitals

Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press

Working in their favour: The Washington Capitals dominated the 2015-16 NHL regular season with an unholy combination of elite goaltending, strong defence and dynamic scorers. Virtually the entire roster could be back in 2016-17, and with the tiniest bit of improvement, it could be the Caps winning it all. 

Working against them: Outside of not yet having won the Cup, there isn't much to criticize about Washington. Ideally, Brooks Orpik would take on a lesser role, and it's fair to quibble a little bit about the bottom six up front, but this is a great team with no obvious flaws. 

Odds: 10-1

Pittsburgh Penguins

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Working in their favour: All the things that helped the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Cup in 2016 are good reasons to like the club's chances in 2017. The three-line attack, with each based around a different superstar (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel) proved to be irresistible, as the Pens dominated shot metrics down the stretch and then rolled over opposition in the playoffs. Goaltending is a strength, and Kris Letang makes up for a lot of weaknesses on defence.

Working against them: It's awfully hard to repeat as champions in the modern era of the NHL, and part of the problem is the toll that playing four rounds the previous season takes on a team. Positionally, defence remains top-heavy, and the club would be wise to shore up the supporting cast. 

Odds: 10-1

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. Salary information via General Fanager.