NHL Draft 2016: 10 Bold Predictions for This Year's Event

The NHL is transitioning from the Stanley Cup Final to the new season—and it all begins June 24 at the 2016 Entry Draft. For fans—especially those whose teams have been dormant since early April—this is the time to reacquaint with the club, the possible moves and the potential of the draft.

Last year, the big stories going into the draft surrounded Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel. The big stories during the draft included the Boston Bruins trading Milan Lucic and Dougie Hamilton, as well as highly-ranked players like Lawson Crouse falling.

This year should feature even more surprises, as the draft rankings vary widely after the first two or three selections. The chances of trades are enormous, as the teams are out of order in terms of needs, and there is going to be a major pressure point around selections No. 3 and No. 4 overall.

Here are 10 bold predictions for the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.

10. Tyler Benson Will Make the First Round

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Tyler Benson of the Vancouver Giants has endured a very difficult year. A February article by Steve Ewen of The Vancouver Province reflects the uncertainty created by the injuries and lack of games played in his draft year.

Central Scouting had Benson No. 21 on the North American list in mid-year, and he fell to No. 24 on the final list—implying a second-round pick. He played just 30 games—less than half a season—but posted 19 points in his final 15 games.

The 2016 draft has plenty of quality, but the chances of teams passing on him 30 times on day one of the draft seems unlikely. The bet here is that NHL teams will remember Benson from the Ivan Hlinka tournament of last summer, and make him a late first-round selection.

Kirk Luedeke of Red Line Report (via The Scouting Post) gave a fair reading in October of the player when healthy:

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Injuries slowed his start as he has yet to get in on the regular season with the Giants, but this edgy scoring winger has the tools and pro attributes to be an early pick and eventual NHL star. He was impressive in helping Canada to yet another gold medal at the August Ivan Hlinka tourney in Europe.

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Benson goes between No. 23 and No. 30 on draft weekend. That is the bet here.

9. A Goalie Will Be Taken in the First Round

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There is no dominant goalie in this year's draft, and it is possible we see a first round without one being taken. The last draft without a goalie in the first round was 2014, and there was just one in 2015.

This year, there are a couple of strong candidates for first goalie selected, with Carter Hart of the Everett Silvertips being the strongest option on Craig Button's list. The TSN draft expert has Hart at No. 24 overall, and Swedish goalie Filip Gustavsson is also getting some love.

Goalies are often overlooked at the top of the draft for a couple reasons. First, the development timeline is often longer than that of position players. Second, the ability to correctly identify the best goalie in a draft year does not exist—the best goalie this year could come from any of the first four rounds.

A team will step up somewhere in the back half of the draft to announce Hart or Gustavsson. Chances are, neither man will be the best goalie taken when we look back a decade from now.

8. Jake Bean Will Be an Extreme Bargain

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One of the unusual things about this year's draft is the sheer number of very good defensemen at the top of the draft. What's even more unusual is there appears to be very little agreement among draft resources about who are the best in the group.

Central Scouting lists Jakob Chychrun; Kyle Woodlief of Red Line Report (via USA Today) touts Jake Bean as the top defender; Craig Button of TSN has Mikhail Sergachev of the Windsor Spitfires No. 1 among defenders; and there are still more quality contenders like Olli Juolevi and Charlie McAvoy. 

All of these services boast actual NHL scouts who have proven credentials. This kind of disagreement over the top defensemen suggests we are looking at a fairly close group that numbers as many as six or more. Since the draft also includes a large number of forwards who are worthy of top 15 picks, there is a very real chance one of the defensemen will be chosen outside the first 15 selections.

I have chosen Jake Bean but it could be another name on draft night. The bottom line is that some team is getting exceptional value because of this difficult situation for scouts.

7. The OHL Will Dominate the Draft

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The OHL boasts a bumper crop this season, with 19 of the top 50 prospects on Central Scouting's North American list. Four of the top five names on the list are from the Ontario league and eight of the top 14.

The London Knights—Memorial Cup Champions—have an exceptional number of players eligible this season. Matt Tkachuk, Olli Juolevi and Max Jones appear to be locks for the first round. Goalie Tyler Parsons, defender Victor Mete and center Cliff Pu should also hear their names on draft weekend.

How many kids will get drafted out of the OHL this year? There are over 50 names among the top 200 on the North American list from Central Scouting. After last year's meager total of 31, the rebound should be exceptional for the world's best junior league.

6. Logan Brown Will Go Inside the Top 7 Overall

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Among the late breakers in the draft this year was Logan Brown of the Windsor Spitfires. Hailing from Raleigh, North Carolina, and standing 6'6'' while weighing 220, Brown looks like a giant on skates against small opposition.

Brown was ranked No. 14 by Central Scouting in the mid-season edition, which often means a top 20 selection when factoring in all four of Central's lists. On the final list, he was moved up to No. 7, a massive jump that high in the ranking. What's more, TSN draft guru Craig Button spotted Brown No. 7 overall on his final list.

An NHL team that sees Brown as a complete player—able to help at both ends—may decide to pass on the available defensive talent and reach for this giant center. Teams that might be interested based on future needs are the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames and—especially if they trade down—the Columbus Blue Jackets.

5. The Edmonton Oilers Will Trade Nail Yakupov

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Last year at the draft, the New York Islanders cashed in 2012 lottery pick Griffin Reinhart for two draft picks. We could see that again at this year's draft, with Nail Yakupov of the Edmonton Oilers front and center.

Yakupov arrived in the NHL after the 2012 lockout and led rookies in scoring in 2012-13. The young Russian winger never got untracked as an Oilers winger, as his possession numbers (via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com) clearly show. 

A team that has fewer young forwards might be able to unlock Yakupov's considerable potential, and it is likely to happen this summer—and at the draft. A team like the New Jersey Devils might be an excellent fit, as the need for an offensive option is obvious. If the acquiring team can find a veteran center to mentor Yakupov, there could be a spike in offense.

As for the quality of the return, Yakupov's value has been reduced since his draft day. Expecting another quality young player who has some issues is probably reasonable. The trade might also include a draft pick and could happen on draft weekend.

4. Edmonton Oilers Trade out of No. 4 Overall and Address Defense

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Since 2010, the Edmonton Oilers have invested high draft picks on forwards Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Logic and reason dictates adding defensive help is the right call.

Edmonton picks No. 4 overall, and the names being mentioned as value in that range are Matt Tkachuk, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Logan Brown—all forwards. If general manager Peter Chiarelli wishes to extract real value out of the selection while also addressing need on defense, a trade down is the likely scenario.

Teams who might be interested in trading up include the Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens—all with picks inside the top 10 overall. Edmonton could fetch extra picks or perhaps an NHL player while still drafting inside the top 10.

Possible defensive options include Mikhail Sergachev, Olli Juolevi and Jakob Chychrun.

3. The Draft Will See One Dozen Americans Selected in the First Round

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The major story at the draft in Buffalo this year will be about the increase in American kids at the top of the draft. Among players who could go in the first round, there are one dozen legitimate possibilities who come from the U.S.A.—including No. 1 overall Auston Matthews.

Forwards include Matt Tkachuk, Logan Brown, Kieffer Bellows, Clayton Keller, Max Jones, Alex DeBrincat, Luke Kunin, Tage Thompson and Riley Tufte. Defenders round out the dozen candidates, with Adam Fox and Charlie McAvoy.

The interesting thing about this group is their two-way ability. Matthews has a complete skill set so is not just a one dimensional solution for his drafting team. Logan Brown has a similar scouting report, and McAvoy has a nice range of skills.

The influence of Canada at the draft remains substantial, but this year in Buffalo, the northern nation will take a backseat—beginning in Round 1—to their southern neighbors. If 10 American prospects are chosen in the first round, that would represent impressive progress. Last year, seven were chosen in the top 30. A dozen chosen in the first round—which could happen—should be front page news.

2. The Tampa Bay Lightning Will Trade Ben Bishop at the Draft

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One of the major items leading up to any draft is trade talk. This week, we will see major deals across the NHL, as teams look to address weakness, fix cap issues and trade up into the lottery picks.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a difficult spot. The team has been excellent in procurement and many of their successful players are up for contract renewal. Steven Stamkos is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, and the team has a bushel of restricted free agents like Nikita Kucherov and Alex Killorn. Additionally, the team must look ahead to signing men like Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson—who need new contracts in the future.

Along with all of these contracts, the Lightning has an emerging No. 1 goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Despite Ben Bishop's role on this team, and the fact he should have a substantial future, he may be the right man to deal on the draft floor. Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times wrote an interesting article on the idea of trading Bishop.

1. Columbus Blue Jackets Trade Down from No. 3 Overall

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The Columbus Blue Jackets won the draft lottery, moving up to No. 3 overall—and into a prime drafting spot. For fans, the immediate reaction was to assume that Finnish general manager Jarmo Kekalainen would draft Finnish impact prospect Jesse Puljujarvi—and that may happen.

Columbus has some real issues—cap problems, lack of center depth—and Kekelainen may be open to a trade that drops the Blue Jackets into the lower half of the top 10 overall at this draft.

A trade with a team like the Calgary Flames—who pick No. 6 overall—might allow Columbus to add a useful player or make a deal that gives them cap relief. It would also allow the selection of a substantial prospect—like Logan Brown—who is ideal for their roster needs. Although Brown is not close to NHL-ready, the Blue Jackets could go this route.

Bob McKenzie of TSN mentioned Columbus as a candidate to trade down on TSN1040 Vancouver, via Chris Nichols and Today's Slapshot.