Why the Tom Brady Suspension Could Be a Blessing in Disguise for New England

There's a chance New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the 2016 NFL regular season. But there's also a chance that doesn't happen because Brady and the NFLPA continue to fight the league's initial decision to dock him four games for his alleged role in the Deflategate scandal. 

It seems Brady and the union continue to protest what has become a courtroom battle primarily on behalf of principle and precedent. And by no means can I blame them. If they feel commissioner Roger Goodell's punishment is unjust, they have every right to appeal until doing so is no longer an option. 

However, this isn't another overplayed take on why Brady does or does not deserve his suspension, or an insomnia cure in the form of a breakdown of Brady's chances with the United States Court of Appeals and/or the Supreme Court. This is instead a suggestion that if this battle ends with a September suspension, there could be enough silver lining for Patriots fans to forget about the cloud itself.

Tom Brady's suspension could act as a blessing in disguise.

Don't Poke the Bear Twice

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Patriots scared a lot of non-Patriots supporters last summer, mainly because they were the defending Super Bowl champions, but also because we wondered if Deflategate added fuel to their fire.

Ultimately, though, a district court judge lifted Brady's suspension in early September. You'd think it'd be hard to grind too large an ax when repercussions have yet to come. But it appeared New England may still have been fired up early last year as a result of the embarrassment and inconvenience the scandal generated.

You might recall the Pats started the 2015 campaign 10-0, with Brady completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,410 yards, 20 touchdowns, only one interception and a passer rating of 115.8 during the first seven of those 10 games.

“The last thing you want to do is poke the bear," said Denver Broncos general manager John Elway when Brady was on a tear early last season, per The MMQB's Peter King. "The bear got poked, and this is what happened.”

If Brady's suspension is finally upheld this summer, the Pats will have a more tangible reason to play with a mean streak early in 2016.

I'm not even sure I want to see just how motivated Brady and the Pats will be if No. 12 is indeed forced to miss the first four games of the year. I can tell you I wouldn't want to be New England's Week 5 opponent, the Cleveland Browns (as if they didn't already have it tough). 

Keeping Brady Fresh

It also has to be considered that the soon-to-be-39-year-old Brady is now the oldest position player in the NFL. That means he's liable to run out of gas faster now than at earlier points in his football career.

He and the Pats were unbeatable during the first 11 weeks of the 2015 season but subsequently appeared to be running on fumes. After winning each of their first 10 games, they lost five of the next eight. That included an AFC Championship Game loss in which Denver held them to 18 points. 

Category	First 10 games	Next 8 games
Brady's comp.%	66.3	59.4
Brady's TD-INT	25-4	14-5
Brady's YPA	8.1	6.6
Brady's rating	107.4	87.3
Win-loss record	10-0	3-5
Points for	32.3	23.4
Points allowed	18.2	21.6

By no means was Brady terrible down the stretch, but he wasn't nearly as effective as he was in September and October. And though New England's slow finish wasn't all on him—the defense slipped up a bit, a lack of stability caught up with the offensive line and injuries hit both sides of the ball hard—it's tough for a 38-year-old quarterback to compensate for those types of deficiencies.

The Patriots remain a talented yet imperfect team, and one year later, Brady might be left in a similar situation regardless of how healthy his supporting cast is. So a late start could delay a potential crash just long enough for New England to make yet another deep playoff run. 

Dress Rehearsal for Jimmy Garoppolo

Have I mentioned Brady will soon turn 39? He told reporters he'd like to play another decade, but science and precedents suggest he'll be forced to step aside in a couple of years. The question, really, is who he'll be stepping aside for. 

Category	Total
Comp.%	64.5 (20-of-31)
TD-INT	1-0
YPA	6.1
Rating	91.9

The leading candidate is 2014 second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, who has thrown just 31 passes in two seasons but is the likely Week 1 starter if Brady isn't available. 

On paper, the third-year Eastern Illinois product is intriguing. He's smart, strong and accurate. He completed 76.3 percent of his 80 passes in the 2015 preseason and has seven touchdowns to go with only three interceptions in eight career preseason games. And just this week, he received a ringing endorsement from tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

“He’s doing great, definitely. You can see a huge development over the last two years in the way he handles the offense now,” Gronkowski said, per Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal. “He’s doing a great job going out there, listening to coaches and just working together with the whole team.”

But the June, July and August Halls of Fame are filled with players who never even showed up between September and February, which is why it's so damn hard to predict which quarterbacks will succeed and which will fail. All we know is, statistically, Garoppolo has a better chance at failing than succeeding. 

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Few teams are given an opportunity to see what a young backup quarterback has the way the Patriots will if Brady remains suspended. They'll get to see how Garoppolo handles running the offense as the No. 1 guy from Day 1 of training camp all the way through September. 

If he falls flat on his face, New England will know it was smart to draft 2016 third-rounder Jacoby Brissett and can go back to the drawing board. But if he succeeds, the front office will have a strong indication that Brady's successor is already on the roster. 

And if you think that kind of sample size isn't enough to get a strong feel for a quarterback, consider that 2012 second-round pick Brock Osweiler leveraged a mere seven starts in 2015 into a blockbuster new contract in Houston, where he's now being viewed as a franchise quarterback for the Texans. 

Garoppolo may only need four games to become the next Osweiler, except he's New England's property through 2017. 

In the AFC East, It Probably Won't Cost Them Dearly 

The most important thing is how many games the Patriots will lose without Brady that they would have won with him. Obviously, getting a feel for Garoppolo is nice, resting Brady is a perk and a little extra motivation always helps. But if New England loses two, three or all of its first four games and fails to win the AFC East by that or a smaller margin, all of that silver lining will disappear. 

Team	Division titles	Record
Patriots	7	85-27
Jets	0	56-56
Dolphins	0	49-63
Bills	0	45-67

The good news is the Pats have won their division by at least two games in six consecutive seasons. In half of those years, they won it by at least four games. The New York Jets put up a fight with a 10-win 2015 campaign, but they still have questions at quarterback. The Buffalo Bills made some progress with an 8-8 showing last year but didn't improve dramatically in the offseason and are already dealing with big injuries. The Miami Dolphins have a lot of talent but haven't posted a winning record since 2008 and are coming off a six-win season. 

Point being, there's likely going to be at least some margin for error early in the year. And a veteran team like the Patriots—who lost two of their first three games in 2012 but still finished 12-4, and two of their first four games in 2014 but again finished with 12 wins—can usually afford to start slow. 

Nobody would blame the Pats if they lost their opener on the road against the Super Bowl-contending Arizona Cardinals. Beyond that, they host Miami, Houston and Buffalo. They'll likely be favored for all three games regardless of their quarterback. If they just win two of those, they'll be 2-2 when Brady returns. 

So there's a chance losing Brady will cost them a win, but it probably won't cost them more than that. And there's a small chance his absence will have no impact on New England's record one month into the season. 

Knowing that, and knowing Brady's absence during that stretch could pay off in several other ways, it's easy to see why his potential suspension could help both him and his team. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon