Projecting the NFL's Receiving Leaders in 2016

The NFL has continued to evolve into a pass-happy attack that spreads defenses thin with remarkable athletes playing wide receiver. Offensive efficiency is at an all-time high, and defenses have been scrambling to find solutions in the last five years. In the meantime, the NFL’s leading receivers have amassed staggering numbers.

The 2016 season will likely be the same. Twenty-six receivers accumulated at least 1,000 receiving yards in 2015, and it’s possible even more will break the milestone this year. After digging through the numbers, depth charts and offseason transactions, we’ve projected the NFL’s leading receivers in 2016, with some hesitency given to players returning from major injury.

Some talented playmakers will see increased statistics, while others may not have the same opportunities to produce. Every situation is unique, and injuries can quickly alter how many targets will go to a receiver. We’ve done our best to project who will emerge and take advantage of his situation to finish with a top-10 season in terms of receptions, yards and touchdowns.

10. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 109 receptions, 1,502 yards, 14 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 90 receptions, 1,250 yards, 10 touchdowns

The second-oldest receiver to make our projected top-10 receiving leaders list for 2016, New York Jets receiver Brandon Marshall is coming off an eye-opening season. He finished with 1,502 yards, just six yards below the most in his 10-year career. His 14 touchdowns tied Allen Robinson’s league-leading total.

Marshall has had only two seasons with fewer than 1,000 yards, and one was his rookie season. His 2014 season in Chicago was the other, but he had only 106 targets that season. His previous career low was 141 with the Miami Dolphins in 2011. He needs to be fed often, as he wears down defensive backs with his strength and size.

Some regression is likely, especially if the Jets don’t re-sign quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Marshall is enigmatic at times with his personality and his drops, but his peaks are worth the variance in play. The 32-year-old should be in line for another big season in 2016.

9. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 60 receptions, 1,047 yards, 9 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 75 receptions, 1,275 yards, 11 touchdowns

As soon as the Buffalo Bills traded up in the 2014 NFL draft to select wide receiver Sammy Watkins, the expectations for his performance jumped considerably. The 6’1”, 211-pound freak athlete has had injuries slow him down at times, including a broken bone in his foot this offseason. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Watkins is expected to be fully recovered by the start of training camp.

The trade-off for dealing with Watkins’ injuries is his supreme talent when he's on the field. Finally given a legitimate quarterback in 2015 in Tyrod Taylor, Watkins proved to be one of the deadliest deep threats in the NFL. He finished 11th in receiving yards per game last year with 80.5, although he participated in only 13 games. He needs better luck in the health department to fully realize his talent.

Taylor’s second season as a starter should lead to improvement for Watkins as well as the rest of the receiving depth chart. The most credible and reliable option outside Watkins is tight end Charles Clay, leaving Watkins as the clear alpha dog. A full schedule will see a per-game increase in every category and a top-10 finish.

8. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 74 receptions, 1,206 yards, 3 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 87 receptions, 1,400 yards, 9 touchdowns

Twenty-two-year-old Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans had a tremendous sophomore season in just 14 games. He and rookie quarterback Jameis Winston had chemistry right away, which had to be exhilarating for Buccaneers fans and front office members. Each is a cornerstone piece for the franchise to continue building around.

The 6’5”, 231-pound Evans improved in every category except touchdowns from 2014 to 2015. His three touchdowns were surprising considering his elite ability to win jump balls and outmuscle defenders, but his lower-body injuries in the first half of the season could easily explain that lack of production. The re-emergence of running back Doug Martin was also a wild card that stole some of Evans’ targets last season. But at some point, defenses won’t get so lucky with Evans’ health, and he’ll be the primary receiver in the red zone and on deep passes.

The Buccaneers chose stability with the offense by promoting Dirk Koetter from offensive coordinator to head coach, which is another positive for Evans this season. Expect him to respond with a career year.

7. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 111 receptions, 1,521 yards, 11 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 95 receptions, 1,400 yards, 9 touchdowns

The Houston Texans had an unlikely AFC South title run after a slow start to 2015, thanks in part to the unstoppable force that is wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The NFL’s third-leading receiver in 2015, Hopkins was the only legitimate offensive threat for the subpar unit to utilize. His ability to contort his body, fully extend his 6’1” frame and snatch the ball in midair is second to none.

Head coach Bill O’Brien and this front office knew Hopkins needed help in the form of a balanced unit and a more consistent quarterback than Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett. Their heavy investment into the receiver and quarterback positions via the draft and free agency could pay off exponentially.

But as far as Hopkins is concerned, his production will dip with more legitimate competition for targets. This will help the team but hurt fantasy owners and his own personal accomplishments. Nevertheless, landing between his monstrous 2015 and solid 2014 seasons would be a top-10 campaign.

6. Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 80 receptions, 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 75 receptions, 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns

The biggest breakout receiver of 2015 was Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 22-year-old is the youngest player on this list after he finished sixth in receiving yards last year. His 1,400 receiving yards and league-leading 14 touchdowns were a glimpse of what’s to come throughout Robinson’s career.

His situation in Jacksonville couldn’t get much better. He's surrounded by receiver Allen Hurns and tight end Julius Thomas, which means defenses can’t constantly double-team him. Even when he has drawn that attention, quarterback Blake Bortles is reckless enough to give him the opportunity to make the play. Robinson is good enough to make those jump balls worth the risk.

His ability to win contested passes with his immense 6’3”, 220-pound frame is complemented by his play strength. He’s powerful throughout routes and unafraid to initiate contact and then box out defenders to build a comfortable catch point. Robinson may lose some targets, as the Jaguars acquired running back Chris Ivory to add balance to their offense, but he will be effective with a similar workload.

5. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 69 receptions, 1,124 yards, 5 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 90 receptions, 1,425 yards, 10 touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton suffered a significant drop in production when quarterback Andrew Luck struggled because of injuries last season. Even when Luck played, he wasn’t quite as explosive as a playmaker as he was in 2014. Hilton still had a great season without Luck at the helm, which speaks to his individual talent and ability to transcend a bad situation.

Hilton’s production for his size is unique. Many of the NFL’s top receivers have bigger frames to rely on, but Hilton is so fast and good at tracking the football that he overcomes his 5’10”, 183-pound frame. It’s rare to see such a small receiver be consistently great.

Another 1,000-yard season in 2016 would be Hilton’s fourth in a row. If he’s healthy, he’s a lock to get there. Having Luck back for 16 games should also mean Hilton is in for career-high production since the options the Colts have around him to steal his targets are less reliable than those who surrounded him in his massive 2014 season.

4. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 96 receptions, 1,450 yards, 13 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 100 receptions, 1,500 yards, 11 touchdowns

Entering just his third season in the NFL, Odell Beckham Jr. is on the fast track to a historic career. The 23-year-old has already produced back-to-back 90-reception seasons with at least 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. His transition to the NFL has gone as smoothly as possible.

The two-time Pro Bowler should be in for another massive season if he can stay healthy. He’s yet to play in all 16 games, making his numbers even more impressive. The situation around Beckham will also give him an opportunity to improve his previous career highs.

When the New York Giants promoted offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo to head coach, the stability for Beckham and quarterback Eli Manning was a tremendous selling point. Beckham’s role within the offense will stay the same, and Manning won’t have an adjustment period. Second-round draft pick Sterling Shepard will take some attention away from Beckham’s side of the field and hopefully give him more single-coverage opportunities.  

3. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 86 receptions, 1,297 yards, 10 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 100 receptions, 1,500 yards, 12 touchdowns

An injury-riddled 2014 season and lower per-game production from A.J. Green lowered some of the expectations for the Cincinnati Bengals receiver in 2015. But even with the emergence of tight end Tyler Eifert as a superstar receiving threat last season, Green returned to his elite status. Across the board, his efficiency and explosiveness were back to his second and third years, as he amassed 86 receptions, 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The Bengals allowed their second- and third-leading receivers to walk in free agency, opening even more targets to go to Green. He was thrown to just 132 times last season, as opposed to 178 times in 2013 and 164 times in 2012. It’s likely he he will approach, if not surpass, his previous career-high statistics as he sees more of the market share.

Green has never accumulated 100 receptions or 1,500 yards, but 2016 will be the season he gets to new statistical heights. Quarterback Andy Dalton reached new levels of play last year, and now Green will benefit more than ever. As the third-leading receiver in the NFL, Green should also make his first All-Pro team.

2. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Marc Serota/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 136 receptions, 1,871 yards, 8 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 125 receptions, 1,750 yards, 9 touchdowns

Talent and natural explosiveness have never been issues for Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones. He was an obvious future star in college at Alabama, and it’s translated to the NFL. His only weakness to this point in his career has been injuries, but his three healthy seasons have allowed him to wreak havoc on opponents.

The last two seasons have seen Jones flourish, with 2015 being an incredible run. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is known for relentlessly feeding his No. 1 receiver, and his first season with Jones at his disposal confirmed that reputation. Jones tied for the NFL’s most receptions with 136 and had the most yards with 1,871 this past season.

Those types of numbers are hard to project for any player, especially one who will be surrounded by more talent next season. The Falcons splurged on receiver Mohamed Sanu to give Jones some help and reduce his burden. Factor in that the Falcons are working to prioritize their running game to ease quarterback Matt Ryan’s workload, and it’s likely Jones will continue his efficiency but see slightly less volume in 2016.

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

David Richard/Associated Press

2015 statistics: 136 receptions, 1,834 yards, 10 touchdowns

Projected 2016 statistics: 140 receptions, 1,900 yards, 11 touchdowns

One of the most dominant players in the NFL regardless of position is Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. The 5’10” 180-pounder isn’t the biggest or fastest playmaker, but he is arguably the best. He blends elite quickness, footwork and an innate ability to manipulate space to be uncoverable by even the best cornerbacks.

His last three seasons have been unbelievable, as he’s continued to increase his receptions and yards each year. His career-high 136 receptions and 1,834 yards in 2015 tied for the NFL’s most catches and finished second in yards. The Steelers won’t have Martavis Bryant in 2016 because of his suspension, leaving Brown to get even more targets from a presumably healthy Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.

The 27-year-old will eclipse his amazing 2015 statistics by a small margin—not because he’ll somehow improve his own game but rather because the opportunity is there. Getting Roethlisberger for 16 games will more than offset a full season from running back Le’Veon Bell, especially with Bryant out of the picture this season. Brown is projected to lead the NFL in receiving with these eye-popping numbers.

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

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