Final Conn Smythe Trophy Rankings for 2016 NHL Playoffs

Little is certain when it comes to the 2016 Stanley Cup Final aside from the fact we know the series that starts Monday night will be a battle between the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks. 

As difficult as it is to predict whether the Sharks will come away with their first Cup in franchise history or the Penguins a second of the Sidney Crosby era (and fourth overall), it's even more challenging to guess which player the voters will select for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP.  

To give you an idea of just how tough it was to get this list in shape, the current NHL playoff points leader didn't make the cut. 

As for the rest, the top candidates are ranked from sixth to first based on their play up to this point. 

Statistics matter, of course, but so do when those numbers were produced and how important the player is to the team, as well as things that can't be measured such as determination and grit. 

Let us know your prediction for who comes away the MVP.

Notable Omissions

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Logan Couture, San Jose Sharks: The NHL playoff points leader is worthy of being in the discussion with eight goals and a league-leading 16 assists for 1.33 points per game. So why is he omitted from the top six? He's just buried behind a more critical trio of options for his own team—which shows how deep and talented these Sharks are this spring.

Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins: The blueliner has not lived up to his regular-season scoring standard so far, but he is easily the Penguins' most important piece on the defensive side of things. He's played in all situations and takes on top competition while eating up an average of 28:46 minutes per game—second in the postseason among players who suited up for at least 10 contests. 

Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks: Two young goaltenders will clash in the Stanley Cup Final, and the 26-year-old Jones has done well under pressure in his first season as a starter, including a .919 save percentage (sixth) through the playoffs to go with a 2.12 goals-against average (third). He has faced the second-most shots against this spring and had only one poor performance through three rounds.

6. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

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This inclusion may be as controversial as the omission of Logan Couture, but Sidney Crosby has shown he's still capable of taking over a game and influencing a series. He scored three of the Pittsburgh Penguins' four game-winning goals in the Eastern Conference Final, including a highlight-reel individual effort that helped the Pens avoid elimination on the road in Tampa, Florida, in Game 6. 

In Game 7, he was held without a point but was anything but quiet. He led the game with six shots on goal and played a whopping 23 minutes. He hounded the puck and created three turnovers—more takeaways than the Lightning managed as a team.

Crosby may never live up to the hype he created for himself as a young superstar before injuries led to lesser numbers offensively, but the 28-year-old is such a dominant force in every aspect of the game that even without the offensive production expected of him, he's still controlling the contest. 

The Penguins captain is ninth in scoring with six goals and 15 points through 18 games and will likely pass at least three players ahead of him from eliminated teams. And if he performs the way he's capable of, and continues to play better, he could end up leading the race altogether.

Look no further than the goal he scored in Game 6 as an example of what he can do and how he can inspire. Not only was the play incredible, but the timing was critical—keeping the Pens on the attack rather than recoiling with a lead in hand. 

Coach Mike Sullivan emphasized the importance of that to reporters in Tampa the next morning, saying: "The timing of the goal is huge right at the end of the period. I think you saw his will and his determination in that goal. And when Sid's playing that way, I think it certainly gives our bench a big lift. Obviously, it was a game-changing goal for us."

5. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins

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After relying on rookie netminder Matt Murray to get them into the Eastern Conference Final, the Pittsburgh Penguins made a starter switch in Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

With Murray's save percentage in decline and a feeling they needed to get veteran Marc-Andre Fleury more action following a long layoff because of a late-season concussion, the move came with the series tied 2-2. Fleury got the start, but the disappointing finish put the Pens on the ropes—a 4-3 overtime loss to the Bolts gave Tampa a chance to close out the best-of-seven series at home two nights later. 

Going back to Murray was likely much easier than yanking him from the starting lineup in the first place. The 22-year-old has been one of this spring's most surprising success stories, with a .924 save percentage that ranks third among those who have played at least 440 minutes. His 2.22 goals-against average is the fourth-best total, and that includes series against the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers—the second- and seventh-ranked offensive teams in the 2015-16 regular season. 

It's unlikely Fleury will see the ice again unless things go horribly wrong against the San Jose Sharks in the Stanley Cup Final. And it doesn't appear likely Murray will crumble under pressure. He hasn't so far, and his head coach suggested the rookie has a cool demeanor not typical of his age and experience at the position.

"He has a calming influence," Mike Sullivan told Puck Daddy's Greg Wyshynski after the Game 6 victory that sent the series back to Pittsburgh for a winner-take-all scenario. "He doesn't get rattled. If he lets a goal in, he just continues to compete. That's usually an attribute that usually takes years to acquire. To have it at such a young age is impressive.”

Murray allowed just three goals in total in back-to-back wins in Games 6 and 7 to win the conference final.

If the Penguins are able to overcome the potent Sharks offense and win the Cup, the list of those in his wake may propel Murray to the top.

4. Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks

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Brent Burns has gained a reputation for being a one-dimensional defenseman. It's easy to understand why after a regular season that saw him score 27 goals (most among all league rearguards) and 75 points (second only to Norris Trophy front-runner Erik Karlsson) in 82 games.

However, the more Burns is producing offensively by joining or often leading a rush, the less his opponents have the puck. That has been a common scenario in these playoffs. Burns sits third in scoring through three rounds with 20 points, just behind teammates Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski.

He is averaging more than 25 minutes a night, including regular shifts on the penalty kill. So much for the notion he's not good in his own end. Just ask his partner, Paul Martin, who joined the team in the offseason and was fortunate to be paired with Burns.

Martin told Bleacher Report's Adrian Dater that Burns has proved himself as an all-around defenseman worthy of his nod as a Norris finalist: "He always had a rap of not being able to play well defensively, but I don't believe that. He showed me what he can do playing in his own end, and not just at the other end, which he does as well as anybody in the league as a defenseman."

His plus-eight rating backs that up this postseason. It's the eighth-best mark in the league and, maybe more importantly, the fourth-best tally on his team. 

3. Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks

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Some people may have been surprised by Joe Thornton's production at 36 during the regular season, when he put together his first point-per-game campaign since 2010. Jumbo, though, has proved his "revival" of sorts was not due to lucky bounces.

Thornton may not be captain in San Jose any longer, but the Sharks veteran sits tied for fifth in the scoring race with 18 points in 18 games and is second in assists with 15 setups—one behind points leader and teammate Logan Couture. After some real ups and downs with the team, including being stripped of the "C" two years ago, Thornton appears to be leading by example now more than ever.  

What separates him from the rest of the pack are his vision and intelligence. He's never been quick or elusive but has strength and size to go with his hockey smarts. He has excelled under head coach Pete DeBoer and made an impression on St. Louis Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock in the Western Conference Final with his ability to transition from defense to offense. Hitchcock gushed praise in conversation with Iain MacIntyre of the Vancouver Sun: 

"

I think as an older player, when you’re allowed to have this type of freedom, now your hockey sense and smarts take over. He’s always been one of the guys with the highest IQ in the league, and now he has that freedom. To me, he’s a more dangerous player now than he’s ever been in his career.

"

His defensive game has been as noticeable as ever, and when voting is revealed for the Selke Trophy nominations, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Thornton's name among the top five. That determined backchecking has been apparent in the playoffs as well, as he uses his huge reach and deceptive top speed to his advantage.

Hitchcock also told the Globe and Mail's James Mirtle that Thornton's drive to succeed and competitive nature are underappreciated. 

“What you find out in working with him is how competitive he is and how smart he is,” said Hitchcock, who thrice coached Thornton with Team Canada. “He might be one of the smartest players in the league—and maybe in the history of the league. He’s been at it a long time. He’s still an impact player every night.”

2. Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins

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What Phil Kessel has done for the Pittsburgh Penguins is made them nearly impossible to shut down with matchups. Spreading Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kessel across three lines means it's all but guaranteed one of them is going to have a big night when needed. 

And so far, that's been Kessel more often than not. 

The sniper has nine goals and nine assists for 18 points in 18 games and is one of just a dozen players who advanced past the first round to maintain a point-per-game pace in these playoffs. 

Captain Crosby has given the HBK line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino and Kessel a great deal of credit for the team's success, pointing out the ability to play all four lines when talking to Sportsnet writer Chris Johnston after Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final.

"You don’t win consistently without that," Crosby said. "That line’s been great all playoffs long. I mean, you look at the way that Phil’s playing tonight and the way he used his speed, his shot, he creates so much. Haggy’s got a ton of speed. And Bones is a really smart player. They’ve been really good."

Kessel more than any of them. He becomes a prime weapon and triggerman on the power play along with Malkin and Crosby, and he ranks third among those with at least eight games in goals scored per 60 minutes of ice time at 1.72, just behind the San Jose Sharks' Joe Pavelski (2.15) and Tampa Bay Lightning's Nikita Kucherov (1.93). Kessel is also just behind with Pavelski in points per 60 with 3.43.

1. Joe Pavelski, San Jose Sharks

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The numbers do tell the story in Joe Pavelski's case for MVP. He leads the league with 13 goals, including the most game-winners (four). 

He's the definition of determination and has teamed with Thornton to create the most deadly duo in the postseason. Pavelski can score from anywhere on the ice but excels at tipping pucks past goaltenders from the doorstep—fearlessly planting himself in harm's way as others blast the rubber at the net. 

Former coach P.K. O'Handley of the USHL Waterloo Black Hawks told the Canadian Press' Jonas Siegel (via the Winnipeg Free Press) that on top of the countless hours Paveslski has spent practicing that skill, it has always come naturally to him.

"He's got unbelievable hand-eye coordination," said O'Handley, who had Pavelski for two seasons before he was drafted. "You should see what he can do with a golf ball on the golf course in the middle of the trees. It's unbelievable."

Sitting second in the points race, Paveslki put up nine points—including four goals—in the Western Conference Final to help the Sharks get past the St. Louis Blues and into their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in 25 years of existence.

Stats via NHL.com unless otherwise noted.