NHL Playoffs Odds 2016: Handicapping Every 3rd-Round Team's Stanley Cup Chances

Twenty-six teams down. Three to go. 

Friday kicks off the NHL conference finals, featuring each of the league's four division winners battling for the right to advance to the Stanley Cup Final itself. 

The Pittsburgh Penguins, after mid-season coaching and personnel changes, are looking to repeat history. The team's last Stanley Cup win (2009) came under similar circumstances. The Pens never emerged as the dynasty that some saw as possible then, but after knocking off the NHL's best regular-season team, the Washington Capitals, in the second round, a championship looks possible.

Their opponent is the Tampa Bay Lightning, last year's finalist in the Eastern Conference. The Bolts have had a tough season in a lot of ways, but they managed to get through two rounds without some of their most important players. Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman are both unknowns at this point, but the Lightning have been winning without them, and returns from one or both could put the team over the top.

In the Western Conference, two teams with a history of playoff underachievement have managed to shed that label by making it this far; now one will have a chance to play for the Stanley Cup. The Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings have owned the Cup for the last half-decade, but both were rudely shoved aside in the first round by the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks, respectively. Now the Sharks and the Blues each have their own chance at immortality. 

Which of these four clubs do we think has the best shot at the Stanley Cup? That's what we'll answer here.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: Ben Bishop was good last year in backstopping Tampa Bay to the finals. This year, he's hit a whole other level, posting an 8-2-0 record and a glorious 0.938 save percentage, with the latter number being the best of any surviving postseason goalie.

The Bolts have been hit hard by injury and have leaned more than usual on their starting goaltender. So far, he has been up to the challenge, and if he keeps playing at this level, he's going to keep giving Tampa the chance to win playoff series.

Why they won't win it all: The Lightning have played 10 games in the postseason so far, which makes four points a decent number. Four points in 10 games represents a 33-point pace, and this year in the NHL, 181 forwards managed to score at a better rate than that. In other words, a player who scores more than four points over a 10-game span is scoring like a top-six forward (181 forwards divided by 30 teams equals about six per team).

Tampa Bay has just four players who meet that threshold. 

The Bolts were a little top-heavy in 2014-15, but even then they had six legitimate offensive weapons up front. In these playoffs, they've added Jonathan Drouin to that list but lost the injured Steven Stamkos and the surprisingly impotent Valtteri Filppula and Ondrej Palat. It's hard to imagine the Lightning getting by both Pittsburgh and whoever comes out of the West without more scoring depth.

Stanley Cup odds: 4-1

St. Louis Blues

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: Depth is important in the postseason—and for good reason. By this point in the playoffs, every team is good, and each of them has a top line and top defence pairing that can go head-to-head against the best. Games are often won by the second- and third-liners, and that's before we even get to the increased importance of those players in the event of injury.

The Blues have depth to spare. 

Eight different forwards have more than a point every other game. Three different right-handed defencemen are averaging 20-plus minutes per night. In a war of attrition, St. Louis can be confident in the quality of its reserves.

Why they won't win it all: I've mentioned before that score-adjusted Fenwick is my favourite of all the shot metrics. It's better than Corsi because it doesn't punish teams for being good at blocking shots, and the score adjustment prevents good teams from being penalized for playing with the lead.

Three of the four surviving playoff teams are rated better than 50 percent by score-adjusted Fenwick. San Jose, which battled the possession monsters from L.A., is over 50 percent. So are the Penguins, despite a second-round matchup against the league's best regular-season team. The Lightning have managed the feat on their road through the Atlantic Division, too.

The only exception is St. Louis, which is down at 48 percent. We're talking about a relatively small gap, particularly over a span as small as two playoff rounds, and the Blues have made some positive adjustments. Even so, it's a decent bet that they'll get out-shot at even strength in Rounds 3 and 4, and that could prove costly.

Stanley Cup odds: 10-to-3

San Jose Sharks

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: Oh, that power play.

San Jose's work on the man advantage has been the gold standard in the NHL since Joe Thornton came over in a trade from the Boston Bruins. Year after year, the Sharks come in near the top of the league in getting shots on net and converting those shots into goals.

In the playoffs, San Jose has clicked at a 30.9 percent rate with the man advantage. Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski have each scored four times on the power play, and seven of Brent Burns' 15 points have occurred with the Sharks up a man. Goals can be tough to come by in the postseason, but the Sharks can rely on their power play not to squander the opportunities that come its way.

Why they won't win it all: Scroll through the surviving playoff clubs, and a trend quickly becomes apparent: outstanding goaltending. Ben Bishop and his 0.938 save percentage lead the way, but Pittsburgh's rookie starter Matt Murray has been nearly as good with a 0.935 performance. Brian Elliott had a tough Game 6 in the second round, but he still boasts a 0.929 save percentage.

Meanwhile in San Jose, Martin Jones is sitting at a respectable but comparatively weak 0.918. That might be good enough for the Sharks to get by Pekka Rinne (he allowed five goals in Game 7) or Jonathan Quick (everyone's favourite playoff starter had an ugly 0.886 number in the series against San Jose), but if these trends continue, it will mean that the men in teal are going to be out-goaltendered in the next two rounds.

Stanley Cup odds: 8-to-3

Pittsburgh Penguins

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: When Jim Rutherford took over the general manager's job in Pittsburgh, he inherited a collection of talent that many general managers around the league would envy, with superstar centres Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the top of the list.

He proceeded to add to it.

Malkin has nine points in the postseason, and Crosby has 10, which oddly enough means that those two brilliant pivots are running neck-and-neck with trade acquisition Nick Bonino (two goals, 10 points). Bonino was acquired for pricey third-liner Brandon Sutter, with Rutherford even getting the Vancouver Canucks to toss in some sweeteners. 

Still, it's Bonino's running mate who will grab the most attention. Phil Kessel leads all Penguins forwards with 12 points in the playoffs, and his chemistry with Bonino has given the Pens a diverse and balanced attack. Every opponent they face has the unenviable task of trying to shut down Crosby, Malkin and the brutally effective Kessel-Bonino tandem.

Why they won't win it all: One wonders how long that defence can keep performing at the level it is. Kris Letang has been blessedly healthy and is averaging nearly 30:00 per game, but the quality drops off sharply after him. 

Trevor Daley is playing more than 23 minutes per night; the Pens have been out-shot 116-97 at even strength when he's on the ice, though, despite holding the edge in shots when he's on the bench. Brian Dumoulin, who has played less than 100 career NHL games, is the only other rearguard averaging more than 17:00 per night. 

Letang will be a marked man for opposing coaches, and if he falters, it's hard to imagine Pittsburgh winning it all.

Stanley Cup odds: 9-to-4

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and Corsica Hockey.