Sharks vs. Blues: Preview and Prediction for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup

The St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks have made it through the toughest terrain in the NHL, the Western Conference playoffs, following 4-3 series wins in the second round. Both teams are worthy of a Stanley Cup Final berth, but those hard-fought victories won't mean a thing if the dream dies in the conference final.

St. Louis has been to the Final three times—1968, 1969 and 1970—but it's been a long drought. The Blues made it to this point by topping the Western Conference giants, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Dallas Stars, relying on great goaltending from Brian Elliott and timely scoring.

The Sharks have been a successful regular-season franchise for most of this century, missing the playoffs only twice. On the other hand, the team has made it to the Western Conference Final only three times, and it has never gained entry to the Stanley Cup Final. San Jose is a rather new NHL franchise—the first season for the Sharks was 1991-92—but the team is overdue for an opportunity for the Stanley Cup.

San Jose reached this point via an impressive five-game series against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round, followed by a victory over the Nashville Predators that capped with a 5-0 Game 7 win. The Sharks used their impressive skill forwards, an effective defense and sharp goaltending to get halfway to their ultimate goal.

Here is a complete analysis of the Sharks-Blues series and what we can look forward to in the next two weeks.

Second-Round Recap

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

St. Louis Blues

Three of the Blues' victories over the Dallas Stars came by scores of 6-1, 4-1 and 6-1 (Game 7), with the fourth win coming in overtime, 4-3. Overall, Dallas was outscored 25-14, but it was able to win three close games to push the series to the limit.

The difference was goaltending, with Brian Elliott posting a .929 save percentage and the Stars' combination of Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi stopping only 88.4 percent of the shots delivered by St. Louis.

Offensively, the Blues relied on the usual talents, including Vladimir Tarasenko, David Backes and Jaden Schwartz. An emerging story is that of young Robby Fabbri, who is early in his NHL career but scoring at an almost point-per-game pace in his first playoff action. If he can continue, St. Louis will be difficult to defend for any team.

Though Alex Pietrangelo wasn't an offensive force in the series—he posted a single assist—his playing time (almost 29 minutes a night) is indicative of his importance to the team's defensive success. The Blues defense is one of the better six-man units in the NHL, including Kevin Shattenkirk, Jay Bouwmeester and the emerging Colton Parayko.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks entered the second round coming off a solid 4-1 trouncing of the Los Angeles Kings, who have been the most successful playoff team in California. After throwing the franchise nemesis to the curb, facing the Nashville Predators may have appeared as easy pickings.

It became an epic series, going the full seven games and leaving both teams contemplating an early summer. In winning Game 1 5-2—courtesy of two power-play markers and a pair of empty-net goals—and Game 2 3-2 (again with power-play help), San Jose quickly gained control of the series.

Nashville fought back with wins in Games 3 and 4—the latter won in the third overtime on a goal by Mike Fisher—but the Sharks won two of the final three games in overwhelming fashion, scoring five goals both times.

Offensively, San Jose comes in waves, and each of their top three forward lines deploys an impact scorer. The series scoring leader for the Sharks was Logan Couture, but the support group included Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns. The power play also scored eight goals in the seven games and should be regarded as lethal until further notice.

Defensively, Burns has chaos in his game, but he is also able to impact play at both ends of the ice. Marc-Edouard Vlasic remains one of the great defensive defenders in the game today, and Paul Martin and Justin Braun give the team added depth the club has not been able to boast in previous seasons.

Key Storylines

Rocky W. Widner/NHL/Getty Images

Is this Logan Couture's time?

San Jose Sharks fans and those who follow the Western Conference know Logan Couture is a difference-maker. Although his regular-season totals do not scream "impact player"—Couture posted his lowest point total since his rookie year in 2015-16—he missed 30 games mostly due to a fractured right fibula.

When healthy, Couture can make a big difference, and his 17 points in 12 playoff games this postseason tell an impressive story. On such a big stage, if he delivers as expected, Couture may get the kind of national recognition his body of work has earned him. He could be the difference in this series.

Can Brian Elliott maintain the pace?

During the regular season, Brian Elliott posted a .930 save percentage—good for No. 1 overall among goalies who played in 30 or more games in 2015-16. He has maintained the pace—his current save percentage is .929—during these playoffs and is once again near the top in that goalie discipline.

Elliott has had a couple of wobbly games, but his ability to recover and play well in the next outing—he was money in Game 7 against Dallas, saving 31 of 32 shots—gives the St. Louis Blues an important edge in the upcoming series.

Who wins the special teams battle?

This series might come down to special teams. There is little to separate the Blues and Sharks on the power play, with San Jose outscoring the Blues 13 to 11 with the man advantage so far this spring. Both power plays are efficient, ranking in the top three overall during the 2016 playoffs.

The penalty kill is a less effective area for both teams, with San Jose ranking No. 6 and St. Louis No. 8 so far during the postseason. The Blues were No. 3 in the category during the regular season, so that may be an area where they'll improve during this series.

Biggest Mismatch: Sharks Offense Gives Them the Edge

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

A long look at the San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues shows two teams that are quite even in most areas. During the long regular season, the biggest difference came in goals, where San Jose posted 237 and St. Louis delivered 219. The average NHL team scored 222 goals.

The Sharks received goals from a large group of forwards, led by a 38-goal season from Joe Pavelski. They also saw 20 or more goals from Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl and Joel Ward. Added to 19-goal scorer Joe Thornton, who posted 63 assists, San Jose consistently iced two scoring lines. There were times the club found a way to ice three offensive lines, effectively changing the game at even strength because of the significant depth among forwards.

St. Louis boasted a 40-goal scorer during the regular season, as Vladimir Tarasenko established himself as one of the game's best young snipers. The only other Blues player to post a 20-goal season in 2015-16 was David Backes, although Alex Steen (17), Troy Brouwer (18) and Robby Fabbri (18) were not far from reaching the mark.

The bottom line: With two teams that are close in quality—this is not a major gap in offensive ability—the Sharks have the edge on offense.

The Blues Will Win the Series If Brian Elliott Keeps Stopping Pucks

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Brian Elliott led the NHL in save percentage during the 2015-16 season, and it was not a fluke. He did the same thing in 2011-12, posting a .940 save percentage that year. Over a long season, the gap between Elliott and average goaltending—the NHL average was .910—means the difference could be 20 or more goals.

In a shorter span, like a seven-game series, that edge can have an even greater impact. During the playoffs so far this spring, Elliott has been facing, on average, 32 shots a game. With his .929 save percentage, that means the Blues are likely to give up around two goals per game.

St. Louis will need effective offense from Vladimir Tarasenko, strong defensive play from Alex Pietrangelo and all-out effort from everyone on the roster. The key player, though, will be Elliott, two-time leader in save percentage and quality NHL goaltender. He is not famous, but he is good.

The Sharks Will Win If the Offense Keeps Firing

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The San Jose Sharks have played 12 games in these playoffs. The club has scored three or more goals in nine of them. That is an incredible accomplishment, especially when you consider those 12 games were played against the Los Angeles Kings and the Nashville Predators.

During this spring's playoffs, the Sharks are averaging 3.42 goals per game, easily the top total in the NHL. The power-play percentage is over 30 percent, ranking No. 2 in the league.

San Jose has a fantastic mixture of young veterans like Logan Couture and older ones like Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau—and those two clusters are a formidable combination for the Sharks. As long as the offense keeps coming, no NHL team still alive can stop San Jose.

Prediction: Blues in 7

LM Otero/Associated Press

There is a lot of luck in any series, and in one that matches two teams with a narrow gap in quality, the power of random luck is enormous. History teaches us that defense wins championships, and despite having a weaker offensive group, the St. Louis Blues have a terrific goalie with a pedestrian reputation. It may be enough to win the day.

In the next two weeks, we're likely to see various heroic performances on both sides of the puck. The San Jose Sharks are going to get fantastic showings from Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. St. Louis will respond with Vladimir Tarasenko, Robby Fabbri, David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Brian Elliott.

The Blues have a growing reputation for being playoff road warriors. In the series against the Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis won two important road games. In the win over the Dallas Stars, the Blues won three games on the road. According to SportingCharts.com, San Jose ranked No. 23 in home wins during the 2015-16 season, a poor total for such a strong team.

This series will turn on luck and goaltending. As is the case with the Eastern Conference series, the Western Conference features teams with little to choose from between them. The Blues have a veteran coach in Ken Hitchcock, a veteran and underrated goalie and a responsible group of forwards who play a 200-foot game. If they stay out of the penalty box, the Blues will win this series in seven games.