Penguins vs. Lightning: Preview and Prediction for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Pittsburgh Penguins have made it halfway to the Stanley Cup, and there are just eight more wins required to reach hockey's promised land.

The Lightning have only been beaten twice in the playoffs—once by the Detroit Red Wings, and once by the New York Islanders—and they've won with some of their most effective players out with injuries. Although the Lightning are going to be tested by the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final, this is a team that made the Stanley Cup Final just a year ago and has the balance and depth to win it all.

The Penguins won their series against the Washington Capitals with a thrilling overtime victory in Game 6, and they appear poised to head back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since winning it all in 2009.

A key element in the victory over the Capitals was the overall quality and depth of the Penguins roster—something that likely held the team back in the past. Getting to this point without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin carrying the team is a major story in this year's playoffs.

Tampa Bay won all three games during the regular-season meetings between these two teams, and they averaged five goals a game in the process. The team is getting outstanding performances from Victor Hedman and Ondrej Palat, who have flourished over the last 10 games. Here is a complete analysis of the Penguins-Lightning series and what we can look forward to in the next two weeks.

Second-Round Recap

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Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning finished with 97 points and the New York Islanders reached the century mark during the 2015-16 regular season. Tampa Bay came into the series after besting the Detroit Red Wings on the strength of impressive offensive efforts from Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn.

Two home wins to start the series were followed by a loss in Detroit, and then the Lightning notched two more wins in a row to close the series. They won by a single tally in three of the four victories.

In Round 2, the Islanders got the jump and came out victorious in Game 1, thanks to young winger Shane Prince and his two first-period goals. After that, it was all Tampa Bay, as they closed out the series with four straight wins. Two overtime road wins for the Lightning—Game 3 on a Brian Boyle goal, and Game 4 on a Jason Garrison marker—and a home shutout shut down New York for the summer.

Victor Hedman was the scoring star in the series, as he tallied an amazing four goals and eight points. Tampa Bay's goaltending was also clearly superior, as Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy combined for a .926 save percentage in the series.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins posted 104 regular-season points and overcame some major hurdles prior to the playoffs—specifically some substantial injuries within their defensive group.

They dispatched the New York Rangers in the first round, winning the series four games to one and finding a key element to this spring's playoff success—goalie Matt Murray. After struggling with Jeff Zatkoff in goal, coach Mike Sullivan inserted Murray, who put up a .955 save percentage in a brilliant performance.

In Round 2, the Washington Capitals won Game 1 on a fantastic overtime goal by T.J. Oshie. The Penguins won the next three games by a single goal, including Game 4, another overtime game. The Capitals won Game 5, but the Penguins won a thrilling Game 6 on their home ice to advance to the Eastern Conference Final.

Key Storylines

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Can Hedman remain hot?

Victor Hedman is a valuable player even when he's not scoring goals at a rapid pace, but his run during the series against the New York Islanders was a major lift for the team. His ability to ignite the offense—by both passing and scoring—turned a formidable unit into something from the 1980s.

After scoring just one point in the Detroit Red Wings series, Hedman was overwhelming against New York. If he can approach the same levels against the Penguins, Tampa Bay will return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row.

Is Matt Murray the latest goalie to come out of nowhere to win it all?

The NHL has seen several goalies emerge late in the regular season—or as rookies—and lead their teams to a Stanley Cup. Ken Dryden in 1971, Patrick Roy in 1986 and Cam Ward in 2006 are three examples from the post-expansion era.

Murray did not emerge from nowhere, though, in fact his AHL performances over the last two seasons trumpeted his potential. This is a player who could have been passed over if not for an injury to Marc-Andre Fleury—who CBC reported could have played in Game 6 against the Washington Capitals—but he got the opportunity and ran with it.

Will Sidney Crosby impose his will on this series?

When healthy, Sidney Crosby is the best player in the game. His long drought from a deep playoff run—Crosby hasn't played 15 games in the playoffs since 2009—has obscured his substantial talents. In this year's playoffs, other Penguins have had a major offensive impact, including Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin and Nick Bonino.

There is no player in the game more capable of taking over a playoff series than Crosby, and this is his best chance in years. It's a good bet that he'll make this a showcase series.

Biggest Mismatch: Tampa Bay Lightning Has a Superior Defensive Unit

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The Tampa Bay Lightning defense is an experienced group with an impact player in Victor Hedman. The big defender can help in all areas and may be playing the best defense of his life currently. Backing him up is a mostly veteran group that includes Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn, Matt Carle and Andrej Sustr.

The Lightning also have a major player about to enter the playoffs this spring in Anton Stralman. Joe McDonald from ESPN reported this week that Stralman—who has not played since late March due to a fractured left leg—could be back soon.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are riding their best defender, Kris Letang, an insane amount—at this point over 29 minutes a night. The club is forced to play him that much, and they're also relying heavily on Trevor Daley to play over 23 minutes a night. After that, youngsters Olli Maatta, Brian Dumoulin and Ian Cole are being used a lot, while Ben Lovejoy and Justin Schultz have also appeared this spring.

The Lightning Will Win This Series If the Top Line Keeps Scoring

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The Tampa Bay Lightning run a high-octane offense, and this spring, the line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov is shooting lights out. As Nicholas Goss of NESN mentioned this week—using metrics from War-on-Ice.com—the trio owns the puck just under 60 percent of the time and is filling the net regularly.

Along with the sudden spike in offense from Victor Hedman and a large group of complementary scorers that includes Alex Killorn plus the emerging Jonathan Drouin, the Lightning are full value for their 30-18 goals for-goals against ratio after two playoff rounds.

Against this backdrop of offensive firepower, the Lightning are about to face a suspect and overworked Penguins defense. Although Matt Murray has enjoyed a stunning spring, Tampa Bay has an overwhelming top line and plenty of help behind it.

The Penguins Will Win the Series If Matt Murray Stays Hot

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It is said goaltending isn't that important until you don't have any, and then it's everything. At the beginning of this year's playoffs, with Marc-Andre Fleury injured, Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Sullivan went with backup Jeff Zatkoff. In two games—a win and a loss—Zatkoff posted a .908 save percentage and allowed just over three goals a game.

Since Matt Murray took over midway through the series against the New York Rangers, he has posted a .935 save percentage while allowing just over two goals a game.

The Penguins can win the series against the Tampa Bay Lightning in more ways than one. Sidney Crosby can go super nova, Phil Kessel can snipe himself into one of his famous hot streaks or Evgeni Malkin can physically dominate for the next 10 days.

Even if all of that doesn't happen, Murray can win the series by doing what he has been doing since his NHL arrival. If he does, you'll be hearing rumblings about his Conn Smythe Trophy candidacy by the end of May.

Prediction: Lightning in 7

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The truth is, this series is probably too close to call. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning are very good teams, but both have substantial issues.

The Penguins boast the best player in hockey and a support group of impact players that is the envy of the Eastern Conference. Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang represent an All-Star cast, and the support forwards are surprisingly strong. The team's rookie goalie has been the most important link in the chain and a major factor in the Penguins' success.

And yet the defense has little depth behind Letang and Trevor Daley, and that one factor has a real chance at derailing this impressive Stanley Cup playoff run.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have no weakness as great as the Penguins defensive issues, but injuries to Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman mean the team may not ice their best 23-man unit during the coming series. Although the top line in Tampa Bay—along with Victor Hedman—gave the Lightning impressive offense against the New York Islanders, that isn't the same as outscoring Pittsburgh.

This series probably hinges on the goaltending. As impressive as Matt Murray has been this spring, Ben Bishop has been his match. With great trepidation and the knowledge it could just as easily end the other way, the prediction is Tampa Bay in seven difficult games.