Islanders' Squandered Chances Have Them Facing Improbable Odds as Tampa Up 3-1

If the New York Islanders are eliminated in their second-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, they can and should look back to their 2-1 overtime loss in Game 4 as the moment when it all slipped away. It wasn’t just a game the team could have won; it was a game it should have won.

We should start with the obvious. The Hockey Night in Canada broadcast repeatedly noted the daunting success rate of teams entering the third period with a lead in these playoffs: 39 wins and just three losses. In 93 percent of games coming into Friday, the final frame was essentially irrelevant if the score wasn’t tied.

Now it’s 39-4.

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The Islanders had many chances to increase their 1-0 lead—which they earned less than five minutes into the game—to something more durable, more substantial. They outshot the Lightning 16-6 in the first period, and when Ryan Callahan took an undisciplined double-minor in the back half of the frame, it represented a perfect opportunity to tally an insurance marker.

New York failed to take advantage. The team didn’t get another opportunity, as that was the last call that would go against the Lightning. Islanders assistant coach Doug Weight was visibly upset in the third period when a high-stick to Kyle Okposo went uncalled, but it’s nothing new for NHL hockey to be played by prison rules in the final frame of a playoff game.

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There were some odd coaching decisions worth noting, too, particularly after Nikita Kucherov scored the tying goal for the Lightning. Ryan Strome’s line got all of nine seconds of ice time the rest of the way, and, as a result, head coach Jack Capuano had to rotate his other three lines almost equally, with centres John Tavares, Frans Nielsen and Casey Cizikas taking five shifts each.

There’s nothing new to Strome being in Capuano’s doghouse, but the even-strength shot shares with each of those centres on the ice suggest those decisions made it less likely the Islanders would regain the lead:

• Tavares: eight shots for, four shots against (plus-four)
• Strome: seven shots for, five shots against (plus-two)
• Nielsen: four shots for, four shots against (even)
• Cizikas: three shots for, seven shots against (minus-four)

Although Strome’s line was on the ice for Kucherov’s goal, Cal Clutterbuck was filling in on the wing and Kucherov was actually his check:

Clutterbuck wasn’t benched; instead he played five shifts over the remainder of the game, along with his physical but badly outshot linemates. Additionally, Kucherov was a regular opponent for Strome; the two played nearly four minutes head-to-head at even strength, and the shots were 5-2 Islanders over that span.

It’s not fair to blame the coaches entirely, either. New York had 28 shots in the game, but 16 of those came in the first period. Over the final 41-odd minutes of the game, the Islanders skaters managed to take just 12 more shots to the Bolts’ 18. Some of that was the natural result of playing with the lead, but it’s also telling that in a game where the shots were relatively even, the Lightning had 22 blocks and the Isles only 10.

In defence of the Isles, this is a fairly one-sided consideration of the events of the game. They jumped out to an early start, played well against a great opponent and came within a whisker of winning the contest and knotting the series at 2-2. That’s what makes the result so frustrating from a New York perspective: If the team had been able to do just a little more, it would have come away with the win.

A better job on the Callahan power play might have done it. Cashing in on another of those 16 first-period shots might have too. Not sitting back on the lead in the second and third, or at the very least getting shots through at the same rate the Lightning managed, could have made all the difference in hanging on to the lead. A different deployment of the forwards after Kucherov’s goal would have given the team a stronger chance at the 2-1 marker.

Capuano and Lightning coach Jon Cooper appreciated the razor-thin margin of error in both Game 3 and Game 4. Bryan Burns, who writes for the Lightning’s official site, got quotes from each:

Any of the factors considered above could have won the Islanders the game and turned this series into a best-of-three. Instead, New York now finds itself on the brink of elimination and needing three straight wins against an opponent it has only managed to beat once in four tries. There’s no shame in the effort the Isles put in, but there is a nagging sense that things could have gone much differently with only the smallest of improvements.

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.