Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines
The Kentucky Derby odds are certain to change as we get closer to the event and the post positions are settled, but there is also value in getting in before the public knows what is going on.
Throughout the past couple of months, a few horses have used the Derby prep to separate themselves from the field. Nothing is guaranteed in a sport where one misstep can cost you a win, but we have certainly learned which horses are the top contenders heading into the Race for the Roses.
A lot will change as the week progresses, but here is an early look at odds for each contender and predictions for the final run.
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| Nyquist | +333 |
| Exaggerator | +800 |
| Mohaymen | +800 |
| Gun Runner | +1000 |
| Brodys Cause | +1200 |
| Destin | +1400 |
| Mo Tom | +1600 |
| Suddenbreakingnews | +1600 |
| Mor Spirit | +1800 |
| Outwork | +2000 |
| Creator | +2000 |
| Danzing Candy | +2500 |
| Shagaf | +2500 |
| My Man Sam | +2500 |
| Swipe | +3300 |
| Lani | +3000 |
| Smokey Image | +3300 |
| Chery Wine | +4000 |
| Gift Box | +4000 |
| Matt King Coal | +4000 |
| Zulu | +5000 |
| Whitmore | +5000 |
| Dazzling Gem | +5000 |
| Toms Ready | +5000 |
| Airoforce | +5000 |
| Cocked and Loaded | +5000 |
| Flexibility | +5000 |
Predicted Finish
Show: Whitmore
While Whitmore is certainly a long shot to win Saturday, finishing in the money is not out of the question.
The thoroughbred's last three events have resulted in a second-, second- and third-place finish, the last of which came at the Arkansas Derby. That event featured a terrible start, and by the time he tried to close, it was too late and he couldn't catch the leader.
Whitmore could have more luck in the Kentucky Derby with a new jockey leading the way, as Victor Espinoza will take over for Irad Ortiz Jr. Considering Espinoza has won the last two years at Churchill Downs and is coming off the first Triple Crown since 1978, this represents quite a bit of a difference.
If the horse gets in good position and doesn't get caught behind in a large field, he has the speed necessary to catch up to top horses and finish in the top three. He has plenty of experience in long events (four of six starts have been over one mile long) and won't get tired down the stretch.
With the Kentucky native already having one victory on this track, don't count out the underdog from succeeding once again.
Place: Brody's Cause
After a relatively embarrassing showing at the Tampa Bay Derby, Brody's Cause bounced back in a big way with a win at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He now comes into the biggest race of his life with plenty of momentum and the ability to do damage.
Even outside of official races, Brody's Cause has been impressive. Steve Haskin of the Blood-Horse was impressed by the thoroughbred's work last week:
Luis Saez will take the reins at the Kentucky Derby, a man who has become the hardest-working jockey in the United States. According to Equibase, he ranks first in 2016 with 530 starts, finishing in the top three a solid 45 percent of the time.
With a talented horse underneath him, Saez should be able to get into the money once again even in a loaded field.
Veteran trainer Dale Romans still might not be able to get his first Kentucky Derby win, but he can get Brody's Cause close to victory.
Win: Nyquist
Nyquist is currently the favorite, and that isn't likely to change any time soon. The horse has simply been the best of the age group over the past few months, coming into Churchill Downs undefeated in seven races.
Jockey Mario Gutierrez has formed a good bond with the contender and knows how to get the most out of the speedy thoroughbred.
While you never know what will happen once the gun goes off, trainer Doug O'Neill has confidence in his team based on what Nyquist has shown throughout the Derby prep, per Beth Harris of the Associated Press:
"You have to have a clean trip and then even if you get a clean trip you've got to have a horse that can go a mile-and-a-quarter no matter what time it is. What I love about Nyquist's chances is he's won from the rail, he's won from the 12-hole, he's won wire-to-wire, he's won from just off the pace. Mario can call audibles as the race unfolds if it doesn't unfold perfectly, and that really is a big benefit.
"
Most contenders need the right post position and the right start to win, but Nyquist has what it takes to get it done regardless of how the event begins.
With six wins in graded races and four Grade 1 victories, this is a proven horse that should go on to claim the Kentucky Derby crown.
Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.
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