Stars vs. Blues: Preview and Predictions for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup

The Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues made it through Round 1 and are ready to do battle in an effort to get to the Conference Final. The Blues won the season series and swept Dallas the last time these two teams met in the playoffs—back in 2001.

The Stars won the Central Division, finishing two points ahead of St. Louis—and securing home-ice advantage through the conference final on the strength of their 50-win season.

The Blues were involved in a classic series against the Chicago Blackhawks, winning in an epic Game 7. To say St. Louis is battle-hardened would be an understatement. Dallas had an easier time with the Minnesota Wild, although that series had its moments of excitement, chaos and doubt as well.

Will St. Louis continue its regular-season dominance, or can the Stars figure out a way to win in the postseason? Can the Blues keep up with the high-powered Dallas offense? How much will goaltending and special teams impact this series?

Here is a complete analysis of the Blues-Stars series and what we can look forward to in the next two weeks.

Round 1 Recap

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Dallas Stars

The Stars posted 12 more wins and 22 more points than the Minnesota Wild, so their first-round clash was not expected to be a close one. The Stars had some issues—Tyler Seguin played only one game during the entire series—but their high-octane offense produced four or more goals three times in the six contests.

The real issue for the Stars—and one to keep an eye on in the upcoming series against the St. Louis Blues—is goals against. The Wild won games in this series by scores of 5-3 and 5-4, and that is going to keep them from going deep into the playoffs if it continues.

Offensively, Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza were spectacular, both men scoring four goals each—all of them coming at even strength. Secondary offense from Patrick Sharp, Patrick Eaves and Cody Eakin meant Dallas had several lines humming, and the Wild could not contain all of them.

One area Dallas looked championship calibre: emerging talent. Although he did not post any points during the series, unheralded defender Stephen Johns displayed impressive skills and anticipation. More than one observer noted his impressive performance, while his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks, was badly in need of exactly the kind of help Johns was providing the Stars.

St. Louis Blues

The Blues posted another fabulous regular season, but that didn't impress anyone because the team has posted strong years before—in fact, all years in the last five seasons. Despite finishing four points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks, the back story between the two teams heavily favored another disappointing playoff spring.

The series was the best in years, capped by a breathtaking Game 7 that highlighted just how close these two teams have been over the last several seasons. The final 60 minutes saw the Blues grab a 2-0 lead, and then Chicago stormed back to tie it.

At that point, and through most of the rest of the game, it was tight, and either team could have scored the go-ahead goal. This time it was the Blues, and their win will be remembered for a long time—especially if the team can go all the way in 2016.

St. Louis scored 19 goals in the series, but only three men—Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and David Backes—scored more than one goal. That speaks to balanced lines and scoring depth, which could be important in the coming weeks.

Key Storylines

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Can Vladimir Tarasenko channel the passion?

As Craig Custance of ESPN detailed, cameras caught Tarasenko upset and angry toward St. Louis Blues coach Ken Hitchcock in the heat of battle against the Chicago Blackhawks. Hitchcock was quoted as saying he loves seeing it because it indicates a player who wants to make a difference, but Tarasenko was not a major player in the deciding game—he was on the ice for less than 15 minutes.

This contrasts with his playing time of well over 18 minutes in Game 1 of the series.

Tarasenko's presence as a top scorer on this team is vital to long term success. Hitchcock is downplaying any possible rift, but there is also a chance of injury impacting his play. A top winger seeing his playing time sliced—in a series where he scored four goals—probably has a specific reason behind the reduction.

When will we see Tyler Seguin in this series?

The Dallas Stars sniper played in only one game during the series against the Minnesota Wild. According to Mark Stepneski of the Star's official website (h/t TSN), Seguin did not practice Tuesday and isn't expected to be on the ice for the next few days.

Seguin is an outstanding scorer, and no team can lose that kind of quality without it having a major impact. Dallas got through the first round, but there has to be some urgency in terms of getting him back and ready to play. Seguin last played April 16.

Biggest Mismatch: The Net

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The St. Louis Blues' secret weapon in the Chicago Blackhawks series was Brian Elliott. His eye-popping .929 save percentage against the Blackhawks snipers marched in lock step with his .930 league-leading total for the regular year. Chicago outshot the Blues, 254-205, when Elliott and Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford were in net, but St. Louis outscored their opponent 19-18 overall. Brian Elliott was outstanding in the opening round series.

The action between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild did not offer a textbook display of brilliant goaltending. Both teams had overall save percentages below .900 during the series and unusual goals were the order of the day. Kari Lehtonen was clearly the better of the two Dallas stoppers and will likely get the lion's share of the action in the series against St. Louis. Lehtonen also posted a shutout during the Wild series.

Playoff series are notorious for being small sample sizes and not giving us a real view on goals. Even-strength save percentage during the regular season is a more accurate view. Brian Elliott of St. Louis ranks in a No. 3 overall tie, Antti Niemi of Dallas ranks No. 26 and Lehtonen of the Stars ranks No. 37 overall.

The Blues Will Win If Their Young Scorers Remain Productive

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The top of the St. Louis Blues scoring during these playoffs is young and good. Jaden Schwartz, Tarasenko and Robby Fabbri all moved the needle offensively and led the Blues. Veterans like Paul Stastny, Alex Steen and David Backes are playing complementary offensive roles.

Why is this important? It is a long way to the Stanley Cup, and in this series, we may see those same veterans outscore the younger group. Coach Hitchcock can deploy all of these forwards as he sees fit—and if both clusters are successful, St. Louis will be in the conference finals.

A quick note about the defense for the Blues. Young Colton Parayko has joined Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk offensively, giving the team yet another look from the back line. If the Blues win the Stanley Cup this spring, we will be talking about the enormous number of young players who supplemented an already-impressive group of veterans.

The Stars Will Win If Jamie Benn Wills It

LM Otero/Associated Press

In some ways, it is ridiculous to suggest one player can impact a series in such a major way. In another, it is the most obvious part of this series. Jamie Benn scored 10 points in the opening series, leads the NHL in playoff points and scored eight of those points at even strength.

Benn cannot do it alone, of course. The goaltending for the Dallas Stars will have to be much stronger, and the team will have to win the special teams equation.

All of that understood, the Stars chances come down to Benn—and Seguin, if he can make it back in time to make a difference in this series. One thing that the playoffs have already shown: Dallas is a formidable offensive team and is going to be an absolute load if it gets the goaltending.

The question about goaltending this year has been answered so far, and Benn will need to lead the offense many nights over the next two weeks.

Prediction: Blues in Seven

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

In what should be an action packed series, the St. Louis Blues will win a close one because their goaltending will outduel Benn and the Dallas Stars' potent offense.

There are factors that could impact the final result. If Seguin returns in time to help the Stars on offense, or if the Blues encounter injury issues or performance problems as we may be seeing in regard to Tarsenko, this could go the Stars way.

Special teams will be important in this series. The Blues have a superior power play, but both teams boast strong options and are successful with the man advantage. Both teams have struggled during these playoffs on the penalty kill, and that could be a big part of the series—especially if one team has a parade to the penalty box.

One area that could benefit Dallas is shots against—if things continue as they did in the opening round. The Blues gave up 36.6 shots per game, one of the highest totals in the NHL so far this spring.

St. Louis finished behind the Stars in the regular season, but Dallas and its goaltending is the biggest flaw in this series. The club is good enough to outscore the defensive problems but not good enough to beat a good Blues team that way.

Blues in seven.

All advanced stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com.