Lightning vs. Islanders: Preview and Prediction for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup

The NHL is eager to get more playoff hockey into your living room.

Before the puck is even dropped for Game 7 of the Nashville Predators/Anaheim Ducks series out on the West Coast on Wednesday night, the New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning will kick off their second-round Stanley Cup playoff series at Amalie Arena.

After their trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015, the Lightning players are now playoff tested and ready to take the next step to win a championship. The Islanders are riding a high after delivering their franchise's first postseason series win in 23 years—made that much more special by doing it in front of the home fans at their new arena in Brooklyn.

The two teams have met just once before in the playoffs, with the Bolts winning a five-game first-round series in 2004 on their way to their franchise's only Stanley Cup to date.

The Islanders won two of three games between the two teams during the 2015-16 regular season, picking up a 3-2 road victory in November thanks to a two-of-three performance on the power play, then beating the Lightning 5-2 at Barclays Center during the last week of the season. In between, Tampa Bay showed its offensive punch in a 7-4 win on March 25.

Here's a look at the tale of the tape as the two teams get set to kick off their series on Wednesday. 

Regular-Season Recap

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New York Islanders

The New York Islanders began a new chapter in the history of their franchise in 2015-16 with their move from Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on Long Island to Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

In their first year in their new digs, the Islanders recorded their second consecutive 100-point season, finishing the year with a 45-27-10 record and securing the first wild-card berth in the Eastern Conference. Tied for seventh in the league with a 25-11-5 home record, New York ranked 10th in the league offensively, collecting 232 goals, and 13th defensively after giving up 216.

Special teams were a strength in 2015-16. The Islanders ranked sixth in the league with a 23.8 percent success rate on the power play and fifth on the penalty kill, at 86.7 percent.

After a successful campaign in his team's last year on Long Island, general manager Garth Snow made only minor changes to his roster during the summer of 2015. Michael Grabner was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, while forward Steve Bernier, defenseman Marek Zidlicky and backup goaltender Thomas Greiss were inked to free-agent deals.

Greiss' acquisition has proved to be key to the Islanders' success in 2015-16. Stepping in to carry the load when starter Jaroslav Halak suffered a groin injury in early March, Greiss set a franchise record with his .925 regular-season save percentage, according to Hockey-Reference.com, going 23-11-3 in 41 appearances.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning came into 2015-16 looking to follow up on their most successful regular season in franchise history, when they set franchise records for wins (50) and points (108).

Named the NHL's general manager of the year for 2014-15, Steve Yzerman chose not to tinker with the key parts of his winning lineup during the offseason, but health issues wreaked havoc on the Lightning roster throughout 2015-16.

The trend began when backup goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was diagnosed with a blood clot in early September and ended up missing the first month of the regular season. Other key players who were out of action for significant amounts of time included forwards Cedric Paquette (26 games), Ondrej Palat (20 games), Tyler Johnson (13 games) and Ryan Callahan (nine games).

Over the course of the season, the Lightning also dealt with two major distractions. Speculation abounded about whether captain Steven Stamkos would bolt for another team when he becomes a free agent on July 1, and top prospect Jonathan Drouin rocked the boat when he refused a minor league assignment and demanded a trade midway through the season.

Down the stretch, injuries continued to be an issue for the Lightning. Key defenseman Anton Stralman broke his leg in late March, while Stamkos underwent surgery in early April to deal with a blood clot.

Thanks to their tumultuous regular season, the Lightning finished 12 points below their record from 2014-15 with a 46-31-5 record—landing them in second place in the Atlantic Division.

Schedule and TV Info

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Game 1
Wednesday, April 27
7 p.m. ET
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports

Game 2
Saturday, April 30
3 p.m. ET
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
NBC, TVA Sports

Game 3
Tuesday, May 3
7 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
NBCSN, TVA Sports

Game 4
Friday, May 6
7 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
NBCSN, TVA Sports

Game 5*
Sunday, May 8
TBD
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
Television TBD

Game 6*
Tuesday, May 10
TBD 
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
Television TBD

Game 7*
Thursday, May 12
TBD
Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
Television TBD

*If necessary

Key Storylines

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Experience vs. Enthusiasm

The Lightning and the Islanders' paths to this second-round meeting couldn't be much more different.

Tampa Bay put it all together in the 2015 playoffs, claiming the Eastern Conference championship before being bested in six games by the Chicago Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup Final.

After a five-year playoff drought between 2008 and 2012, the Islanders got themselves back into the NHL's group of contenders with three playoff appearances in the last four years. Sunday's series-clinching Game 6 win over the Florida Panthers marked the first time that the team advanced to the second round since knocking off the then-Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins 23 years ago, back in 1993.

Which will prove more important—the lessons learned by the Lightning during the spring of 2015 or the "team-of-destiny" energy that surrounds the exuberant Islanders?

Tavares vs. Hedman

It doesn't have quite the same cachet as Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin, but two of the biggest stars in this series have a long history against each other and are forever linked by their draft history.

In 2009, the Islanders owned the first overall pick in the draft and the Lightning chose second. New York took Canadian franchise center John Tavares while Tampa Bay went with big Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman. Both players entered the NHL immediately, in the fall of 2009, and both turned out to be outstanding selections.

In addition to seven years of regular-season NHL battles, Tavares and Hedman have also faced each other at two World Junior tournaments and two World Championships. Their upcoming on-ice battle should be a highlight of this series.

Incidentally, two other first-round defensemen from that 2009 draft are suiting up for the Islanders in this series—Calvin de Haan, chosen 13th, and Nick Leddy, who was originally taken 16th by the Minnesota Wild.

Which Injured Players Will Return?

Both the Islanders and the Lightning succeeded in the first round despite missing some key players from their lineups.

Jaroslav Halak's absence was the most discussed, but the Islanders also started the playoffs without defenseman Brian Strait and forwards Mikhail Grabovski and Anders Lee. On their way to beating the Panthers, forward Josh Bailey and defenseman Ryan Pulock were also sidelined.

For the Lightning, Steven Stamkos grabs the headlines, but his team is also missing key defenseman Stralman. Forward J.T. Brown was sidelined in the second game of the first-round series against Detroit and is said to be out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.

The day before Game 1, Stamkos skated with his team in a non-contact jersey but is not expected to be ready to return to action anytime soon, according to Nicholas J. Cotsonika at NHL.com. Though Stralman has yet to get back on the ice after suffering a broken leg in late March, coach Jon Cooper told reporters on Tuesday that he's hoping to get his defenseman back into action at some point in this series.

Meanwhile, Arthur Staple of Newsday reported on Tuesday that injured Islanders Halak, Bailey and Pulock all traveled to Tampa Bay with the team for Game 1, so there's a chance that all three will soon be ready for game action.

Players to Watch

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John Tavares, New York Islanders

After scoring both goals in Game 6 to break the Islanders' long streak of playoff futility, captain John Tavares could be on his way to being one of the biggest stars of the 2016 playoffs. 

With just Game 7 of the Nashville/Anaheim series still to be played in the first round, Tavares' five goals tie him with Nikita Kucherov and Joe Pavelski for first place in playoff scoring, and his nine points put him in a tie for second with Jason Spezza in that category, while Jamie Benn leads the way with 10 points.

Tavares lost the scoring title to Benn by a single point in 2014-15 but finished tied for 16th this year after dropping from 86 to 70 points.

Maybe he figured he'd save those big goals for when he really needed them—in the playoffs.

Tavares has long been known as an under-the-radar superstar. With the playoff race wide-open this year, he has a chance to grab the spotlight in America's biggest media market and establish himself as one of the best players in the game as he comes into his hockey prime.

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

No longer just one of Tampa Bay's famed triplets, 22-year-old Nikita Kucherov is making a case for himself as one of the top offensive talents in the National Hockey League.

Breaking out with 29 goals and 65 points in 2014-15, Kucherov followed up with 30-36-66 (goals-assists-points) this season, even though the fortunes of his team as a whole took a bit of a dip. 

Even more tantalizingly, Kucherov is showing that his 10-goal, 22-point playoff performance last year was no fluke. He came out blazing against Detroit in the first round, tallying 5-3-8 in just five games as the Lightning handily disposed of the Red Wings.

The offense that Kucherov is generating makes it much easier for the Lightning and their fans to bide their time until Steven Stamkos is ready to return to the Tampa Bay lineup.

Travis Hamonic, New York Islanders

Just over a month into the 2015-16 season, the Islanders website reported that dependable defenseman Travis Hamonic had asked to be traded back to his native Canada for personal reasons.

Fast forward to today. Hamonic's still with the team. His regular-season numbers of 5-16-21 and minus-five weren't quite on par with his career-best 5-28-33 and plus-15 in 2014-15, but he led his team in average ice time at 23 minutes and 49 seconds per game and averaged a whopping 29:03 in the first round of the playoffs.

Despite his trade request, Hamonic has been a good teammate even as months have passed without his trade request being accommodated. Expect him to continue to be a blue-line pillar in the second round against the Lightning. 

Goaltender Breakdown

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Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning

For the second straight year, workhorse goaltender Ben Bishop delivered a performance worthy of a Vezina Trophy nomination for the Lightning. Among goaltenders with at least 25 games played, Bishop finished the season ranked first in goals-against average (2.06), second in save percentage (.926) and tied for second with six shutouts.

Bishop was even better in the first round against the Red Wings, allowing eight goals in five games for a 1.61 goals-against average and .950 save percentage.

So far, Bishop has had a healthy 2015-16 season. Lightning fans are hoping that he can stay that way after watching him play through a torn groin during last year's Stanley Cup Final, per Sportsnet.

Thomas Greiss / Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders

Though Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss successfully shared the Islanders' net for a good part of the regular season, there was reason for concern for the team's playoff chances when it was announced that Halak would miss six to eight weeks of action after suffering a groin injury on March 8, according to Arthur Staple of Newsday.

After Halak's injury, Greiss started 11 of the Islanders' remaining 18 games, putting up a mediocre 5-5-1 record. But he got the Islanders into the playoffs and has been terrific since the postseason began.

Though he had previously played just 40 minutes of NHL playoff hockey in his entire career—back in 2010, when he was with the San Jose Sharks—30-year-old Greiss outdueled Roberto Luongo in this year's first round, showing nerves of steel in the Islanders' three overtime wins and posting a first-round goals-against average of 1.79 and save percentage of .944.

The Islanders will start Round 2 on Wednesday exactly seven weeks and one day after Halak was injured. He should be ready to return soon but until he does, New York is in capable hands if Greiss can continue his strong play.

Biggest Mismatch: Grit

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The New York Islanders' fourth line of Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck is one of the most bruising in the entire NHL. 

For the past five seasons, Martin has led the league in hits every year—and it's not even close. That's an amazing show of consistency for a player whose game is all about using his physicality to wear down the opposition and intimidate skill players.

The Lightning can dish it out when they need to—Victor Hedman's a fearsome hitter, and Ryan Callahan and Brian Boyle aren't afraid to get dirty along the boards. But the aggressive approach of the Islanders' fourth line should be much tougher for the Lightning forwards to handle than anything they saw from the Red Wings in the first round.

The Lightning Will Win If They Can Channel Last Year's Run

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After a nail-biting seven-game win over the Red Wings in the first round last year, Tampa Bay had a much easier time moving on this season—dispatching Detroit in five while barely breaking a sweat.

The Lightning played the first round with the kind of confidence that's born out of success, showing that they expect to be a part of our playoff conversations every spring for the foreseeable future.

With the Los Angeles Kings, Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers all out of the postseason picture, Tampa Bay's recent playoff pedigree is as good as any team left in the mix. The Lightning are the only team that's still alive that has played in a Stanley Cup Final in the last six seasons.

With Kucherov leading the offense at one end and Bishop shutting the door at the other, the Lightning can move on to the Eastern Conference Final for the second straight year if they play to their full potential.

The Islanders Will Win If They Play Fearlessly

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After the euphoria of their Game 6 double-overtime win over Florida, the New York Islanders must take care not to get too self-congratulatory—or too cautious.

If they start to feel like wins will come easily, the Lightning will exploit them. They'll also get into trouble if they sit back and show Tampa Bay too much respect.

There's not a lot of natural emotion between these two teams. They're not division rivals and have met just once before in the playoffs. The Islanders need to stay hungry and feed off the good energy they manifested against Florida, especially during those three overtime wins that saw them play defensively responsible hockey while waiting for openings to present themselves.

This year's Stanley Cup draw is now wide-open. No time like the present to try to grab a piece of history.

Prediction: Islanders in 7

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Tampa Bay is the more pedigreed team, but this New York group feels like it might be just getting started in this year's playoffs.

Though the Lightning may benefit from last year's experience of going all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, the Islanders have some experienced playoff performers of their own on their roster.

Defensemen Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk both have Stanley Cup rings—Leddy's with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013 and Boychuk's with the Boston Bruins in 2011. Depth players Marek Zidlicky and Steve Bernier also went to the Stanley Cup Final with the New Jersey Devils in 2012—and played well when inserted into the lineup against the Panthers.

Add in the fact that John Tavares looks ready to prove himself on the big stage as one of the game's top players and that Thomas Greiss has been cucumber-cool so far under intense pressure, and the Islanders could find themselves in position for an upset.

That is, if we can even call it an upset. Though they came into the playoffs as a wild-card team, New York actually finished three points ahead of Tampa Bay in the overall league standings.

Both these teams are deep in talent and play an exciting style of hockey that's great fun for fans to watch. With any luck, we'll be treated to a seesaw series that features plenty of highlight-reel moments. The Islanders are in a strong position to prevail.

All stats courtesy of NHL.com.