NHL Playoff Odds 2016: Handicapping Every 2nd-Round Team's Stanley Cup Chances

The first round of the playoffs is over, and eight of the 16 teams that aspired to the Stanley Cup have been forced to endure an early end to their respective seasons.

That's good news for the eight surviving teams.

In the Metropolitan, it's a battle between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, but it's also so much more than that. The Washington Capitals were the league's best regular-season team, looking to put years of playoff anguish firmly behind them. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the dynasty that never was—a team that finally got on-track in the latter half of the season.

John Tavares' first-round performance compared favourably with that of Crosby, Ovechkin and for that matter, anyone else in the game. His New York Islanders have crossed over to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning—a team racked by injuries and a lackluster regular season, but also a club that handily dispatched its first-round opponent and won the conference just last spring.

The Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues meet in the Central Division final, with the giant of the division having been knocked off in seven games after years of dominance. Ken Hitchcock, who coached the Stars to a Cup win years ago, has instilled the same kind of buttoned-down approach in his new team. He may not recognize his former squad, a firewagon team that leans on a deep and capable offence but has questions on the back end. That matchup will be a fascinating clash of styles.

The Pacific, meanwhile, is wide-open. The Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings were both knocked out in the first round, leaving the impressive but consistently second-fiddle San Jose Sharks and the crossover Nashville Predators as survivors. Both are strong teams, and both are looking to prove their playoff mettle. 

This slideshow attempts to make some sense of all this chaos, looking at the strengths and weaknesses of all these teams and assigning Cup odds to each.

Nashville Predators

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: The Nashville Predators are a strong puck-possession team and have been all season. Per Puck On Net, the only two clubs with superior score-adjusted Fenwick ratings this season were the Anaheim Ducks (barely) and Los Angeles Kings. Nashville managed to squeak past the Ducks in seven games and had the good fortune to see L.A. knocked off in the other Pacific Division battle. Outshooting the opposition at even-strength isn't all there is to hockey, but it's a good way for a team to create an edge for itself. 

Why they won't win it all: Pekka Rinne had a phenomenal Game 7, stopping 36 of the 37 shots he faced. If he can maintain that level of play the rest of the way, the Predators are going to be difficult to beat.

The trouble is that of late Rinne has not done this. Entering Game 7 he had a lousy .901 save percentage in the first round of the playoffs; Anaheim won three straight games and climbed back into the series as he allowed 11 goals in those contests. He was problematic during the regular season, with his 0.908 save percentage coming in near the bottom of NHL starters.

He's been a great goaltender in the past; if Nashville is to win he needs to channel that kind of play for three playoff rounds. 

Stanley Cup odds: 8-1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: The same core that took the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Stanley Cup Final a year ago is still in place. Victor Hedman took on more minutes on the blue line in the first round than he had for the majority of the season and has shown he can anchor a top pairing on a contender. Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov played well in the first round and are part of a strong forward group. Add Ben Bishop in net and this is a solid roster.

Why they won't win it all: Injuries remain a problem. Tampa Bay is missing two important pieces in Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman—players who were instrumental in the team's run to the Cup last spring. Stralman isn't skating, though TSN.ca recently reported the Lightning are hopeful he can play at some point in the second round. Stamkos is skating, but Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun noted the club has no timeline for his return. 

Stanley Cup odds: 8-1

Dallas Stars

LM Otero/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: Offensive ability has been the Dallas Stars' calling card in 2015-16 (and for that matter, in prior campaigns as well), but the team faced a major test in the first round, when star centre Tyler Seguin missed all but 16 minutes due to injury. It didn't matter.

Jason Spezza stepped into the first-line centre role and performed admirably, while winger Jamie Benn didn't miss a beat with a new linemate. The two combined for 19 points in the six-game series, and Dallas also received contributions from depth players like Ales Hemsky, Mattias Janmark and Cody Eakin.

Why they won't win it all: Goaltending has been a problem all year, and the first round didn't do much to put concerns to rest. Kari Lehtonen went 3-1 with a .911 save percentage, but he ceded the net for a period of time to Antti Niemi, who went 1-1 with a .870 total. Neither player was able to firmly seize the top job during the regular season.

Stanley Cup odds: 8-1

New York Islanders

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: John Tavares was as good a player as any in the league during the first round, and his coach, Jack Capuano, isn't afraid to use him. He scored five goals and recorded nine points in the six games against the Florida Panthers, averaging more than 25 minutes per game. The Islanders have decent quality and depth at all positions, but Tavares sets the team apart from its opponents. 

Why they won't win it all: New York's first-round performance against the Panthers wasn't exactly convincing. Although the series didn't go seven games, each of the six played was close, and for most of the series, Florida held a lead. According to Eric Hornick of the Islanders' official site, the Panthers led for nearly three hours while the Isles barely managed to stay ahead for 45 minutes. Constantly trying to even the score isn't a great way to win hockey games.

Stanley Cup odds: 7-1

St. Louis Blues

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: From the net out, the St. Louis Blues are a formidable club. Brian Elliott led the NHL in save percentage during the regular season and managed a .929 save percentage in the first round against the Chicago Blackhawks. 

Alex Pietrangelo played more than 30 minutes per game in the first round, posting six points, and he's backed up by a quality top four that includes Kevin Shattenkirk and rookie sensation Colton Parayko. Even the forwards tend to play a two-way game. 

Why they won't win it all: Ken Hitchcock's coaching decisions got a lot of attention in the first round, and for good reason. Particularly of note is that Vladimir Tarasenko averaged 3:25 per game less than fellow right wing Troy Brouwer. Tarasenko had about four shots and three points for every one Brouwer managed in the opening series. It's also hard to make a defensive argument for Brouwer, whose Fenwick total, per Hockey-Reference.com, was 16 points shy of the team average while Tarasenko was five points higher. 

Stanley Cup odds: 7-1

Pittsburgh Penguins

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Why they will win it all: The Pittsburgh Penguins offence seems to be as good as advertised. The first round saw strong performances from both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, both of whom entered the postseason battling through injury; they combined for 15 points in nine games. Phil Kessel was also productive.

However, productivity went well beyond those star players. Of the 12 Penguins forwards to appear in more than one game, 11 had at least a single point (Chris Kunitz was the sole exception) while nine managed three or more. Pittsburgh can kill opponents with top-end talent, but with scoring depth, the club becomes even more daunting. 

Why they won't win it all: Goaltender Matt Murray was exceptional in the first round, going 3-0 with a .955 save percentage. That won't last forever, regardless of which goaltender is in net, and when the goaltending slows, Pittsburgh's defence could be tested. The team's top four includes a pair of players (Olli Maatta and Brian Dumoulin) with just 258 games' worth of experience between them, as well as Chicago castoff Trevor Daley, who posted a 45 percent Fenwick rating in the first round of the playoffs, per Hockey-Reference.com. 

Stanley Cup odds: 6-1

San Jose Sharks

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Why they will win it all: They beat the Kings.

There's never been a question of the San Jose Sharks' talent. The team has exceptional players, with a top six up front and a top four on defence good enough to go head-to-head with any other lineup in the league. Players such as Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns are undeniably capable. 

Yet in best-of-seven series against the strongest opponents in the West, the team has fallen short. This year, despite a middling performance from goaltender Martin Jones (4-1, .912 save percentage) the Sharks managed to knock off a club that has been one of the most dominant in the league over the last five years. 

Why they won't win it all: There's no obvious weakness on the Sharks roster. Thus it's hard to come up with a compelling argument about why they won't win. Instead, you have to fall back on an obvious one: They may be just a touch worse than their opposition.

Puck On Net shows San Jose's second-round opponent, the Nashville Predators, had better even-strength shot metrics this year. Not much better, but it's enough that it might make the difference in a seven-game series. 

Stanley Cup odds: 6-1

Washington Capitals

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Why they will win it all: A dominant performance over the Philadelphia Flyers carries more weight than the NHL standings would suggest. The Flyers were good in the second half of the year, playing basically on par with the Washington Capitals over that time frame and posting superior possession numbers, per Puck On Net. The Capitals' performance suggests we need not worry much about the team's late-season showings and can put more stock in the overall run in 2015-16. 

Why they won't win it all: If the whistles go away, the Capitals could find themselves in trouble. In the first round, Washington scored on 30 percent of its power plays and stopped 96 percent of Philadelphia's opportunities. The Caps also led the NHL with 27 power-play opportunities. Relying on special teams can be dangerous in the postseason, when the rules tend to slacken a little. 

Stanley Cup odds: 6-1