Capitals vs. Penguins: Preview and Prediction for 2016 NHL Playoffs Matchup

One of the National Hockey League's marquee matchups will highlight the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, as the Washington Capitals face the Pittsburgh Penguins.

For more than a decade, the two teams have been linked by their superstar captains: Alexander Ovechkin, 30, chosen first overall in the 2004 draft, and Sidney Crosby, 28, picked No. 1 in 2005.

Ovi's Capitals and Crosby's Penguins have met just once before in the playoffs—a seven-game thriller in the second round in 2009, won 4-3 by Pittsburgh on their way to a Stanley Cup championship.

The captains may be constants, but the casts of characters have changed considerably over the seven subsequent seasons, which have featured plenty of postseason heartbreak on both sides.

Here's a look at what to expect when two of the NHL's hottest teams face off in Round 2.

Regular-Season Recap

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Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins turned around their 2015-16 season starting in mid-December, when Mike Sullivan replaced Mike Johnston behind the bench.

Finishing the season at 48-26-8 for 104 points, the Penguins moved from playoff also-rans into fourth place in the NHL by season's end, six points better than 2014-15 and with a plus-42 goal differential that ranked second in the league. Captain Sidney Crosby climbed to third place in the NHL scoring race with 85 points.

Defenseman Kris Letang also bounced back after several seasons filled with health issues. His career-high 16-51-67 in 71 games ranked him second in points per game by a defenseman behind only Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators (82).

The Penguins' biggest move heading into the year was the acquisition of sniper Phil Kessel, who took some time to find his footing but finished strongly, with seven goals and 19 points in his final 21 regular-season games. 

After Sullivan took over, the Penguins also successfully integrated a number of younger players into their lineup. Rookies like Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust and Tom Kuhnhackl all played integral roles in Pittsburgh's five-game win over the New York Rangers in the first round.

Goaltending problems cropped up at the end of the regular season, when both starter Marc-Andre Fleury and his backup Matt Murray were sidelined with head injuries.

Third-stringer Jeff Zatkoff held down the fort for the first two games of Round 1 before Murray was able to return and close out the series. Fleury returned to practice but did not dress for any games.

Washington Capitals

With a record of 56-18-8 and 120 points, the Washington Capitals were runaway winners of the 2015-16 Presidents' Trophy as the best regular-season team in the NHL.

Strong in all aspects of the game in their second year under coach Barry Trotz, the Caps finished the season near the top of the league in virtually every important statistical category: goals for (second, 252), goals against (second, 193), goal differential (first, +59), power play (fifth, 21.8 percent) and penalty kill (second, 85.2 percent).

The Caps also boasted the league's top goal scorer as Alex Ovechkin recorded the seventh 50-goal season of his career. Goaltender Braden Holtby tied Martin Brodeur's NHL record with 48 wins on the season.

After yet another second-round Game 7 loss in 2015, the Caps signed clutch playoff specialist Justin Williams as an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, as well as beefing up their offense with the addition of sniper T.J. Oshie. Williams' former teammate, Mike Richards, was brought in midway through the season for his faceoff talent and two-way acumen.

The Capitals started the playoffs strongly, jumping out to a 3-0 series lead against the Philadelphia Flyers. They put another scare into their fanbase, dropping two games, before punching their ticket to the second round on the strength of a 1-0 win in Game 6.

Schedule and TV Info

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According to Chuck Gormley of CSN Washington, the second-round schedule won't be announced until all first-round games are complete.

We'll have the dates, times and TV broadcast info for you as soon as it's released by the league.

Key Storylines

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Sid vs. Ovi

A decade into their careers, the arguments have cooled about which player is better. Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin have both proved to be generational talents but with very different skill sets.

At his core, Ovechkin is a pure goal scorer. It has now been four years since any player outscored him—Steven Stamkos' 60-goal season in 2011-12—and the Russian will claim the sixth Rocket Richard Trophy of his career at the NHL Awards in June. 

Crosby has also rebounded to become one of the top offensive forces in the game, finishing out the season ranked third in NHL scoring with 85 points thanks to a 27-31-58 run in 44 games after the calendar flipped to 2016.

Crosby's 200-foot game is also on point, though. Mike Sullivan trusts him just as much in a shutdown role as he does when the Penguins need a big goal.

The last time these two players dueled in the postseason, both were outstanding. Crosby and Ovechkin both had hat tricks in Washington's 4-3 win in Game 2 of that 2009 second-round series, with the latter putting up 8-5-13 while the Canadian went 6-4-10 as his Penguins triumphed in seven games.

For the moment, Ovechkin is downplaying the matchup. When asked on Sunday what he remembers about that 2009 series against Crosby and the Penguins, Joe McDonald of ESPN reported that "Ovechkin responded, 'Nothing.'"

Can The Capitals Break Through?

If the Capitals are going to wrap up their tremendous regular season with the franchise's first Stanley Cup, they'll need to rise above their history.

Since joining the NHL in 1974, the Caps have reached the Stanley Cup Final just once, and didn't win a game in that lone appearance—they were swept by the powerhouse Detroit Red Wings in the 1998 final.

More recently, Washington has developed a reputation for buckling under playoff pressure. Since the Ovechkin era began in 2005, the Caps have found themselves in nine do-or-die Game 7 situations. They've buckled six times, never getting past the second round of the postseason.

Barry Trotz believes his group is more emotionally resilient this season. "We've come full circle where we're comfortable being uncomfortable when the games are tight," he told McDonald.

If Washington beats Pittsburgh and reaches the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in 18 years, Trotz's assessment will have been proved correct.

Will the Penguins' Young Guns Keep Producing?

This series will boast plenty of star power, but one of the most intriguing aspects of the Penguins' second-half surge has been the emergence of a versatile group of young forwards who have greatly enhanced the team's depth.

Less than 50 games into his NHL career, 23-year-old speedster Conor Sheary has found a home with Crosby and Patric Hornqvist on Pittsburgh's top line, while Bryan Rust and Tom Kuhnhackl have formed one of the NHL's best fourth lines on either side of 39-year-old Matt Cullen.

Each of the rookies tallied three points in Pittsburgh's first-round series against the New York Rangers. That offensive depth could be the difference for the Penguins against the tight-checking Capitals.

Players to Watch

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John Carlson, Washington Capitals

Before he was slowed by injury in January, Capitals defenseman John Carlson was hanging with the Ottawa Senators' Erik Karlsson and the San Jose Sharks' Brent Burns as one of the most prolific offensive defensemen in the league.

Carlson ended up missing 24 regular-season games and finished the regular season with 39 points, but he showed that he's back on top of his game in the first round of the playoffs. His ice time has spiked to nearly 25 minutes a game, and he has collected six points in six games so far—five on the power play.

The 26-year-old is on the verge of entering his hockey prime, and these playoffs could become his coming-out party. The further Washington advances, the sooner Carlson will start getting his name thrown into the mix as a future Norris Trophy candidate. 

Phil Kessel, Pittsburgh Penguins

Phil Kessel has taken a lot of heat over the years for failing to work hard enough to live up to his massive potential, but it looks like he has been saving himself for the playoffs all this time.

Coming into 2016, Kessel had played just 22 playoff games in his 10-year NHL career. In three postseasons, he was part of one win in four series—the Boston Bruins' sweep of the Montreal Canadiens in 2009—but his 21 points in 22 games are a pretty solid number.

After collecting 59 points in 82 games during his first year in Pittsburgh, Kessel again stepped up when the playoffs began. Through the end of the first round, he's third in Penguins' scoring with 3-3-6 in five games, with five of those points coming on the power play.

Goals will almost certainly be hard to come by against the defensively tight Capitals. Kessel's the closest thing the Pittsburgh will have to matching Ovechkin's natural goal-scoring ability.

Justin Williams, Washington Capitals

Talk about plugging a lineup hole. The Washington Capitals are notorious for faltering in Game 7 situations, so they went out last summer and acquired the man nicknamed "Mr. Game 7," winger Justin Williams.

A three-time Stanley Cup winner with a knack for making big plays at crucial moments, Williams is 7-0 in Game 7 situations in his career and won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in 2014, when his Los Angeles Kings won three Game 7s on their way to their second Stanley Cup in three years.

By bringing Williams in as an unrestricted free agent, the Capitals are hoping that he can be the difference-maker if the team again finds itself in a do-or-die playoff situation.

Williams recorded just two assists in the first round against Philadelphia but, hey, that series only went six games. Clearly, he's saving his best stuff for when it's needed most.

Goaltender Breakdown

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Marc-Andre Fleury / Matt Murray / Jeff Zatkoff / Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins' goaltending picture is less worrisome than it was going into their first-round series against the Rangers, but it's still a murky situation.

Though he made some indication that he would try to draw in against New York, veteran starter Marc-Andre Fleury did not dress for any of the five games as he continues to deal with his second concussion of the year.

Third-stringer Jeff Zatkoff earned a split in the first two NHL playoff starts of his career before backup Matt Murray stepped in and calmly outdueled the legendary Henrik Lundqvist to deliver the series win.

On the morning of Pittsburgh's fifth game against the Rangers, Dave Molinari of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that Fleury was not just back on the ice, practicing in full equipment, but was also taking shots—probably a signal that he's close to being ready to return to game action.

But does his No. 1 status and long history with the Penguins automatically earn him a return to the net? Murray has been terrific, with a 1.33 goals-against average and .953 save percentage so far. Could Mike Sullivan elect to keep riding the hot hand until the rookie falters?

Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals

The goaltending picture is much clearer in Washington, where Braden Holtby plays almost all the time—and does it very well.

Holtby is good in the regular season and even better in the playoffs. After his 1-0 series-clinching shutout against Philadelphia on Sunday, Sportsnet Stats pointed out that his .940 career playoff save percentage is the highest of any goalie in the past 34 years.

At the moment, of course, Murray's save percentage is even better, but his sample size is not yet large enough for him to make the list. Also, if we look only at this year's playoffs so far, Holtby has given up just six goals in six games, with two shutouts and a .968 save percentage. Dazzling.

Will Holtby's strong play continue? The Penguins had some success against him the regular season. All told, Pittsburgh scored 16 times in five games on the way to a 3-2 record in the season series. The Pens even chased Holtby from his net during a 6-2 home win on March 20.

Biggest Mismatch: Physical Play

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There really isn't much to choose between the two teams in this series.

The Caps were the best team for the 82-game regular season. The Penguins were the hottest down the stretch. Both had a fairly easy time dispatching their first-round opponents, strong on offense and defense while putting up excellent special-teams numbers along the way. Goaltending looks good.

But the Capitals did a good job of using their bodies to take away time and space from the Flyers in their first-round series, while the Penguins play a less physical, speed-based game.

Alex Ovechkin, of all people, led Washington with 28 hits in the first round—tied for fifth in the entire league. The fierce captain was ably supported by poop-disturber Tom Wilson's 23 hits. All told, the Capitals outhit the Penguins 193-143 in the first round. Pittsburgh's leading hitter was Chris Kunitz, with 22.

Pittsburgh's first-round opponent, the New York Rangers, were even more determined to take the body, laying out 224 hits in their five-game series. The Penguins were undeterred, but Washington's best chance at disruption will lie with a grinding style that features plenty of bodychecks and lots of shot-blocking.

The Penguins Will Win If They Continue to Get Balanced Scoring

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Eleven of the 18 Pittsburgh skaters who appeared in more than one game against the Rangers tallied at least three points in the series—a multi-pronged offensive attack that'll be hard for any team to defend against.

Different players excelled on different nights. Most notably, Evgeni Malkin exploded for four points in the series' pivotal Game 4.

Malkin has looked terrific since returning to action in Game 2 against New York after missing a month with an upper-body injury. With seven points in four games so far, his 1.75 points per game is the best of the playoffs so far.

Since the Penguins had played so well while he was sidelined, there were questions about whether Malkin's return would disrupt his team's chemistry. Not a problem so far.

The Capitals Will Win If They Live Up to Their Potential

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The Washington Capitals' true opponent in this second-round series may well be—the Washington Capitals.

The Caps may insist that they are not the same as the groups that have let opportunity slip away in the past, but until they step up to win that big game and take the next step down their playoff path, the questions will linger—and need to be answered.

This year's group is now one step ahead of the crew that won the Presidents' Trophy in 2009-10, then fell in the first round to the Montreal Canadiens. But when they needed three tries to finish off the Flyers last week after taking a 3-0 lead in their first-round series, all those doubts started to resurface.

The Penguins will be a tough opponent that will put up a good fight. Psychologically, the entire Capitals organization would benefit enormously if their team could take control of the series and deliver a decisive, businesslike win without a lot of drawn-out drama—treating this series as nothing more than a stepping stone en route to more important engagements.

Prediction: Penguins in 7

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By the slightest of margins, the Penguins hold the edge going into this series.

Pittsburgh came into the playoffs feeling confident thanks to a strong second half under Mike Sullivan, and that self-assurance only grew as they easily disposed of the Rangers—getting better as the series went on.

Goaltending was expected to be an issue but turned out to be a strength. A healed-up Marc-Andre Fleury should be ready to step in if needed in Round 2.

The Caps ultimately fulfilled their first-round promise, but they struggled harder than they should have against a team that finished 24 points below them in the regular-season standings. 

Pittsburgh will prove a more difficult foe, and the Penguins won the season series between the two teams, thanks to two solid late-season victories. Compared to most teams around the league, Washington doesn't match up especially well against Pittsburgh—and if the Pens steal a game or two early in the series at Verizon Center, the anxiety will ratchet itself up once again. By the time they get to Game 7, not even Justin Williams will be able to save the Capitals from themselves.

Like most years, don't be surprised to see Alex Ovechkin hopping his mid-May flight back to Russia in time to play in final games of the World Championships after his Caps are again eliminated in the second round.

All stats courtesy of NHL.com.