2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down Pro Future of Domantas Sabonis

Arguably the country's top mid-major prospect, Domantas Sabonis strengthened his pitch to the NBA during his second year at Gonzaga. 

He'll enter the draft with a diverse resume that includes pro experience overseas, Hall of Fame genes (he's the son of NBA luminary Arvydas Sabonis) and volume college production. Sabonis is coming off a breakout year, and despite the lack of NBA-caliber front lines he faced, he put on a show for scouts in the NCAA tournament against Utah's Jakob Poeltl, the projected top center in June's field. 

“Just confidence-wise, I've been a lot better, and trusting more in myself, trying out new things, and just knowing that coaches trust me more this year, and I have a bigger role to help my team, that's helped me a lot,” he told USA Today's Lindsay H. Jones. 

Sabonis has his well-documented flaws, but over the course of his sophomore season, they became easier to overlook. 

Relevant Stats

PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%	Usage
17.6	11.8	1.8	0.9	.611	.769	.256

Sabonis' remarkable efficiency stands out more than anything else from the numbers. He shot 66.8 percent as a freshman and 61.1 percent this past year. He also raised his scoring average to 17.6 points per game (up from 9.7), which he got on just 10.9 field-goal attempts. 

According to Sports-Reference.com, he also grabs 20.7 percent of the available rebounds when he's on the floor, which ranks first among prospects who are expected to generate first-round interest. 

Between his new and improved free-throw stroke (76.9 percent) and the five threes he hit, Sabonis may even be developing some shooting potential. 

On the downside, he averaged less than one block and one steal again. In 74 career games, he's totaled just 43 blocks and 39 steals. 

Strengths

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

At 6'11", 240 pounds, Sabonis possesses enough size and mobility to play both power forward and center. 

Rebounding will be his signature strength upon entering the league. He pulled down 14.8 boards per 40 minutes, showing textbook technique, a nose for the ball and a live motor inside. Loose balls seem to always find Sabonis, who boxes out, anticipates misses and scraps.

Despite lacking explosiveness, he's terrific around the rim, thanks to good hands and finishing instincts. He's crafty down low, where he uses pivots and pump fakes in traffic, plus he shows the ability to covert from tough angles. 

In the post, Sabonis does a nice job of sealing off his man and catching the entry pass in scoring position. His moves are fairly basic, but they're effective, and he's developed touch and control on his one-handers and jump hooks, which he can make with either hand. 

He's also an unselfish passer with vision, regardless of what his ratio of 1.8 assists to 2.6 turnovers might suggest. 

Defensively, he's flashed the foot speed to switch and contain quicker players around the perimeter. He can get low in his stance and slide laterally with relative ease. 

Aside from his skills, Sabonis is a monster competitor. Even if he fails to blossom as a scorer, his energy and toughness should still hold NBA value. 

"All you want is a guy with a heart like that who just goes so hard every possession," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said, per ESPN.com's Myron Medcalf. "That's the greatest attribute he has. It's inspiring."

Weaknesses

Sabonis lacks both exciting athleticism and length. He doesn't bounce off the floor high, while his 6'10 ½" wingspan is unusually short for an interior-oriented player.  

Because of it, he offers little rim protection. And it's fair to question if he'll be able to get enough separation on his shots offensively. That could make his jump-shooting development even more important. Plus, as a big in today's NBA, his value would take a hit if he can't protect the rim or stretch the floor. 

Otherwise, Sabonis mostly plays with his back to the basket, and though he can make face-up shots off one foot, he isn't a real threat to attack and create outside 12-15 feet. 

Pro Comparisons

Greg Monroe

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Sabonis brings more intensity, but he shares similar strengths and weaknesses with Monroe. Neither is a particularly impressive athlete or a shot-blocker. They both play mostly baseline to foul line and demonstrate nifty footwork in the paint. 

Like Monroe, Sabonis brings above-average rebounding, passing and low-post skills—without offering much shooting or intimidating interior defense.

Luis Scola 

Just as Scola has made a living by working the block, knocking down mid-range jumpers and rebounding, Sabonis will have the chance to do the same. Scola was never much of a leaper, but he's sharp fundamentally, smart and active, and he plays within the offense. 

Best-Case Scenario

If everything goes to plan, Sabonis becomes capable from three, reliable in the mid-range and a high-percentage option to feed around the key. On top of his offense coming together, his elite rebounding numbers translate and he develops into a walking double-double.

In a best-case scenario, Sabonis emerges as a long-term starter who can be counted on for half-court offense and consistent activity under the boards.

I'm just not sure his ceiling reaches All-Star heights. 

Worst-Case Scenario

If Sabonis has trouble scoring around the basket and his jumper never comes around, he'll likely settle into a rebounding-specialist bench role. Teams can always use a dirty-work player.

At the very least, he makes an NBA living by cleaning up inside and hustling. Though his ceiling isn't overly high, his floor isn't too low. In a worst-case scenario, Sabonis should still add something as a high-effort, supporting cast member.

Prediction

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

A combination of size, strength, production, competitiveness and basketball IQ helps to create the perception that Sabonis is a safe 2016 draft option. That could mean a lot this year, given the lack of obvious star power and depth. 

Based on the projected order and team needs, the Orlando Magic (projected No. 11 overall), Utah Jazz (No. 12) and Phoenix Suns (No. 13) could be realistic suitors.  

Look for a late-lottery or mid-first-round team to snag Sabonis, who should be capable of injecting a front line with some life right away. I'd bank on him carving out a lengthy NBA career as a fringe starter or valuable, spirited reserve.