Blues vs. Blackhawks: Preview and Prediction for the 2016 NHL Playoff Matchup

One of the strongest rivalries in the NHL—going back decades—sees another round of battle this playoff season. The Chicago Blackhawks—owners of three of the last six Stanley Cups—take on the St. Louis Blues, whose playoff misery is real and frustrating for fans.

This season, the teams had very similar records, with St. Louis finishing slightly ahead of Chicago in the Central Division.

The teams last met in the playoffs during the 2014 postseason, with the Blues winning the first two games before losing four straight. Emerald Gao of ChicagoBlackhawks.com offers the tale of the tape.

Will the results this spring be more of the same or are we in for an opening-round shock in the Central Division? Will Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith do it again or can the upstart Blues win the day and finally push past the Blackhawks?

Here is a complete analysis of the Blackhawks-Blues series and what we can look forward to.

Regular-Season Recap

Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press

Chicago Blackhawks

Since the shortened lockout season of 2012-13, the Chicago Blackhawks have been posting seasons that are basically identical: more than 45 wins, more than 100 points.

Each year also involved deep trips into the playoffs, including a Stanley Cup win last spring. In fact, one of the things fans are wondering about this time is fatigue—Chicago has played a lot of hockey lately—but the results have been outstanding.

Offensively, Chicago was led this year by Patrick Kane (a league-best 106 points) and amazing rookie Artemi Panarin(77 points and the likely Calder Trophy winner).

The Kane line, which features Panarin and former Columbus Blue Jacket Artem Anisimov, was extremely effective at even strength. The line also managed something quite rare in the modern NHL—all three members scored at least 20 goals this year.

Defensively, the Blackhawks gave up 20 more goals than a year ago, but the team save percentage of .921 was significantly better than the league average.

The one area that Chicago has had difficulty in is defense, as Brent Seabrook's numbers have suffered at least partly because of the strength of his partner. It will be something to look for in the playoffs, especially in regard to ice time.

St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues have a frustrating recent history as it pertains to their regular-season record and the resulting playoff expectations.

In the last three seasons, the Blues have won 52, 51 and this year 49 games—giving everyone in St. Louis the expectation that good things are coming in the postseason. Each spring, first-round exits have been the story.

The Blues offense is down markedly this year from 248 goals in 2014-15 to 224 this season. Injuries to some of the top-flight offensive players were a factor, but it is also clear that St. Louis relies heavily on Vladimir Tarasenko, who scored 40 goals in 2015-16.

Goaltending has been a strong story for the team this year, with St. Louis' save percentage of .924 running well ahead of the league average of .915.

It is not an area where the Blues are generally regarded as being near the league best, but an outstanding year from Brian Elliott has given the team an edge in most games.

Schedule and TV Info

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Game 1
Wednesday, April 13
9:30 p.m. ET
Chicago at St. Louis
TV: NBCSN, SN360

Game 2
Friday, April 15
8 p.m. ET
Chicago at St. Louis
TV: NBCSN, SN

Game 3
Sunday, April 17
3 p.m. ET
St. Louis at Chicago
TV: NBC, SN

Game 4
Tuesday, April 19
9:30 p.m. ET
St. Louis at Chicago
TV: NBCSN, SN

Game 5*
Thursday, April 21
TBD
Chicago at St. Louis
TV: TBD

Game 6*
Saturday, April 23
TBD 
St. Louis at Chicago
TV: TBD

Game 7*
Monday, April 25
TBD
Chicago at St. Louis
TV: TBD

 

*If necessary.

Key Storylines

Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press

Can the Blues stop Chicago's top line?

During the regular season, Kane scored five points in roughly 109 minutes against St. Louis. He is an offensive dynamo in his prime, and no NHL team had an answer this year.

Part of that may have to do with linemates Panarin and Anisimov, but the Blues will need to make certain they get a matchup that at least gives them a chance to derail this line.

The St. Louis blue line is a good unit in puck possession, led by veterans Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk. Along with veterans Jay Bouwmeester and Carl Gunnarsson, those two should see the bulk of the Kane line.

How much will injuries factor into this series?

The Blackhawks list Anisimov, Marian Hossa, Andrew Shaw and Viktor Svedberg as being ready for the playoffs, but fans know this is the time of year when honesty takes a holiday when reporting injuries.

There is also the matter of the Duncan Keith suspension, which will certainly impact the first game of the series.

St. Louis has some injury issues of its own, including a lower-body injury to goaltender Jake Allen. David Backes is a big part of that rugged forward group and will be needed, but Steve Ott is out for awhile. The veteran was recovering from double-hamstring surgery and getting set to return, but The Sports XChange (h/t the Toronto Sun) reported on April 7 that he has colitis and will miss up to two weeks.

Who wins the special teams battle?

The Blues scored 51 power-play goals—the league average was 48—and were very strong on the penalty kill, allowing only 41 goals—seven fewer than the NHL average this year. The major weapon for St. Louis' man advantage is Vladimir Tarasenko, who scored 12 goals on the PP.

Chicago scored 57 power-play goals, with Kane scoring 17 times. The Blackhawks are also dangerous on the penalty kill, with Jonathan Toews scoring four times and the team potting 10 short-handed goals.

Players to Watch

Paul Beaty/Associated Press

Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks

Kane led the NHL in points this year with the highest total since 2012. He also blew away the competition, effectively ending the race early and posting a number no one could get close to during the season.

Perhaps even more impressively, he did it without Chicago's other impact forwards from previous seasons in Toews and Hossa. Along with Panarin and Anisimov—who was toiling for the Columbus Blue Jackets a year ago—Kane led the NHL's top line to great heights all year long.

St. Louis is extremely unlikely to shut this line down over a long series, but it is vital to reduce the number of opportunities given to the trio. Staying out of the penalty box as well as effective possession and checking will be important for the Blues.

Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

The Blues have a sniper of their own to lead them, and Tarasenko's 40 goals ranked No. 4 in the NHL this year. Tarasenko accomplished the feat while playing with several linemates—which was necessary because of injuries to key forwards throughout the season.

Chicago can focus on Tarasenko and his line at home, but on the road, matchups can be more difficult because the home team gets the last line change.

If the Blues are going to win this series, Tarasenko will be front and center on the scoresheet.

Artemi Panarin, Chicago Blackhawks

It is quite rare for a European player to enter the NHL and have the kind of impact Panarin managed this year. While it is true he landed in a fantastic spot—Kane's line—the rookie cashed all the passes and ended the year on an insane scoring streak.

Panarin is the poster player for success in the modern NHL. The Blackhawks organization signed him for only money—no assets were required to get him—and their scouting department correctly identified him as a great plug-and-play option.

Giving credit where it's due, Chicago's management is in a league of its own when it comes to player procurement.

Goaltender Breakdown

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Brian Elliott/Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues allowed 201 goals this year, the fourth-lowest total in the NHL. Two men—Jake Allen and Brian Elliott—were mostly responsible for the tight goaltending in 2015-16.

Despite the absence of famous names, the tandem could give the Blues an advantage. Coach Ken Hitchcock could run with a hot hand, or if his starter struggles, no one will flinch if he switches him out.

Based on statistical information, Elliott is probably the best bet for St. Louis. His even-strength save percentage among goalies with 30 or more games ranks No. 3 overall in a tie with Henrik Lundqvist's mark of .934. Allen is no slouch, ranking No. 20 in the same discipline.

Corey Crawford/Scott Darling, Chicago Blackhawks

Winning Stanley Cups really helps goalies become famous, and Corey Crawford is no exception. He worked hard this year, posting 58 starts and winning 35 games—including a .924 save percentage. Crawford tied for No. 5 in even-strength save percentage, reflecting a quality season.

Crawford started against the Columbus Blue Jackets on April 9, his first start since mid-March. Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune discussed Crawford's health in the game story.

Backup Scott Darling is a capable goalie, although his numbers trail Crawford's this season. If injury becomes an issue for Chicago, it could have a substantial impact on the series.

Biggest Mismatch: Playoff Success

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

Hockey men rarely talk about luck in the playoffs—probably because luck doesn't explain away painful losses, and words like grit, momentum and heart have powerful meanings in sports.

With that said, the St. Louis Blues and the Chicago Blackhawks are a pretty even match over the last three regular seasons but part quickly in the postseason.

In their last three regular seasons, the Chicago Blackhawks have averaged 47 wins, a period during which St. Louis has averaged over 50 a year. During the postseason, Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock has six total wins, while Chicago coach Joel Quenneville has 43 wins and two Stanley Cup victories.

Chicago does have some real advantages, including an outstanding roster foundation which is similar in age and experience.

Kane, Toews and Niklas Hjalmarsson are all in their prime and delivering quality performances. They are supported by a fine group in their 30s which includes Keith, Seabrook, Hossa and Crawford, and those two groups have been a big part of the winning in Chicago.

The Blues have fewer impact players in their prime on the roster, but the cluster in their mid-20s should be able to impact the playoffs in the coming years. Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk and Allen are a solid cornerstone for a quality roster, and there are excellent players coming up through the system.

Despite several disappointments this decade, St. Louis could be on the verge of a breakthrough in the next few seasons. Perhaps luck will be on its side this year.

The Blackhawks Will Win If They Are Healthy

Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press

Kane is at the height of his skills, and the Blackhawks should have enough defense to win the day if everyone can stay healthy.

Make no mistake, this veteran Chicago group has played a lot of hockey in the past few years, and the grueling schedule has had an impact. With that said, there is just too much talent on the roster to expect an early-round loss unless health has a say.

How many Chicago players are hurt, and how badly?

Playoff time means very little information right up to game time, but there are some clues in the last 10 games played by the Blackhawks. One game for Crawford, six games apiece for Hossa and Anisimov, and some fairly pedestrian scoring totals from the group outside of the top line are causes for concern.

The Blues Will Win If Their Goalie Steals the Series

Billy Hurst/Associated Press

The St. Louis Blues enter this series with a lot of negative history, but none of that matters. What does matter is getting the same level of play from all areas of the game delivered during the regular season.

If Brian Elliott can post a .930 save percentage, this team can beat the Chicago Blackhawks.

The last 10 games have offered some encouragement, as Elliott has been able to deliver quality down the stretch. It is also true that veterans like Paul Stastny, Troy Brouwer and Backes have been able to help Tarasenko offensively as we near the playoffs.

Both of those indicators are very positive, with the goaltending of Elliott front and center.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 7

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

The Chicago Blackhawks are the most famous team in the NHL, courtesy of several Stanley Cup victories over the last few seasons. They also boast a strong contender for the Calder Trophy in Panarin and the likely Hart Trophy winner as league MVP in Kane.

This is going to be a closer series than history suggests, especially if the injury bug hits the Blackhawks.

They have concerns in goal, where Crawford hasn't played much during the waning days of the season. They have also had some issues on defense this year, mostly in finding a consistent fourth blueliner to play behind Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson.

Those factors could impact the Blackhawks during the long playoff season, but they are unlikely to derail them against the Blues.

St. Louis has some issues despite the impressive regular season, and the big one shows up against Chicago in any series.

When two teams of equal quality meet, it is often the impact players who make the difference. Tarasenko may pass Patrick Kane and company eventually, but he is not at that level this year and doesn't have the support from the other Blues.

Chicago wins the series in a close one.

All advanced stats courtesy Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and Hockey-Reference.com.