Setting the Market for Unsigned NFL Free Agents

The 2016 edition of NFL free agency is about to enter its second month. Naturally, this means that most of the league's top available players have already been signed—but not all of them.

If your favorite team didn't land many impact free agents over the last month, don't fret. There is still time and plenty of quality players available. We recently took a look at the top remaining players at each position, and the overall talent pool is still deep.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably your man if you're looking for a starting-caliber quarterback. Need help in the defensive backfield? Try former Pro Bowl safety Donte Whitner or former All-Pro cornerback Leon Hall. Freshly minted Super Bowl champion Ronnie Hillman would be an asset on virtually any offense, as would veteran pass-catcher Anquan Boldin.

The question, of course, isn't whether these players deserve to play in 2016—they absolutely do. The question is what, exactly, they are worth. This is what we're going to try to determine, as we look at what each player offers, the terms of recent contracts at his position and the potential demand for him among teams with money to spend.

So put on your NFL executive hat and join us as we determine fair market prices for some of the top remaining players in free agency—or put on your agent hat and tell us why our estimations are way off in the comments section.

Jahri Evans, Guard

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Veteran guard Jahri Evans finds himself on the open market because he refused to take a pay cut to stay with the New Orleans Saints in 2016. Though Evans may still take a pay cut this season, someone is likely to give the 32-year-old Bloomsburg product a sizable deal.

Evans started 11 games for the Saints in 2015, and Pro Football Focus rated him 38th overall among guards for the season. He is a six-time Pro Bowler and a former Super Bowl champion. Evans has the potential to help contenders and retooling teams alike.

The issue is that he is coming off an injury and has 10 pro seasons under his belt. Because of this, he may be forced to accept a one- or two-year deal in order to get on the field and prove he can stay healthy and return to his prior Pro Bowl form.

Determining a market price for Evans becomes a bit tricky, because offers could differ between contending and rebuilding teams.

The Arizona Cardinals, for example, gave guard Evan Mathis a one-year deal worth just over $4 million with just over $3 million guaranteed. Mathis is about one year older than Evans but is also coming off a much better season. Pro Football Focus rated him seventh overall among guards for 2015.

The San Francisco 49ers gave 29-year-old guard Zane Beadles a three-year, $11.75 million deal this offseason. He is a bit younger than Evans but played at a lower level in 2015. Pro Football Focus rated him 66th among guards.

We will point out here that Mathis and Beadles played at left guard in 2015, while Evans played on the right side. However, the roughly $4 million per season being earned by these two feels about right for Evans. A team that offers him a two-year deal would likely front-load any guaranteed money. This would make cutting him an option should injury or inefficiency be an issue this coming season.

Suggested Market Price: Two years, $8 million, with $3.75 million guaranteed

Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver

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It's difficult to think of a more physical and relentless receiver in today's game than Anquan Boldin. With 1,009 receptions and 13,192 yards receiving on his resume, he is also one of the more accomplished pass-catchers in recent league history.

The problem for prospective employers is that Boldin is 35 years old and has 13 pro seasons under his belt. He did visit with the Washington Redskins earlier this offseason, according to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport. However, he appears better suited for a team on the verge of Super Bowl contention.

Boldin is still playing at a high level. Despite suiting up for the 29th-ranked passing attack of the San Francisco 49ers (207.2 yards per game), he still produced 69 receptions, 789 yards and four scores last year.

Pro Football Focus rated him 33rd overall at this position for the 2015 season.

As a short-term complementary piece, Boldin would be a near-perfect fit for the Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots or even the Carolina Panthers.

We would expect Boldin to earn a deal similar to the two-year, $11.5 million deal that Mike Wallace recently signed with the Baltimore Ravens. That deal included $4.5 million in guarantees. Though he played at a higher level last year, Boldin isn't likely to get a deal like the three-year, $21 million deal Andre Johnson got from the Indianapolis Colts last offseason.

Boldin is likely looking at a deal that is heavy in incentives and front-loaded in terms of guarantees.

Suggested Market Price: Incentive-laden two-year deal worth up to $11.25 million

Ronnie Hillman, Running Back

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Teams that are still looking for a potential starter at running back have to be interested in kicking the tires on Ronnie Hillman.

He started 10 games for the Denver Broncos in 2015 and racked up 863 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He's also young at just 24 years old. As one might expect, however, he has some shortcomings. Hillman has a limited skill set and is only effective as a runner at this point.

As an overall back, he was rated just 60th overall by Pro Football Focus for the 2015 season.

The limited game Hillman possesses is likely why the Broncos were more interested in bringing back C.J. Anderson. It's also why more teams haven't jumped on such a young skill-position player.

The Miami Dolphins signed Anderson, a restricted free agent, to an offer sheet this offseason. The Broncos matched. The new deal will pay Anderson $18 million over four years with $7.6 million guaranteed. Hillman isn't likely to sniff a deal close to that from Denver or anyone else.

The Broncos, though, have looked into re-signing Hillman, according to Mike Klis of 9 News Colorado.

Depending on the team that winds up taking a chance on Hillman, an offer in the $2-3 million range per year seems about right. This is close to what Alfred Morris is getting on his two-year, $3.5 million deal with the Dallas Cowboys.

Hillman isn't as accomplished as Morris, who has over 4,500 yards rushing on his resume. However, Hillman is nearly three years younger with more than 600 fewer NFL carries on his body. As a long-term investment, he is much more appealing—and he should earn a more player-friendly deal.

Suggested Market Price: Incentive-laden three-year deal worth up to $8 million

LeGarrette Blount, Running Back

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Teams that are looking for more of a short-term fix at running back will likely consider veteran LeGarrette Blount.

He is a six-year veteran who has shown he can be a quality starter at times. He amassed 703 yards rushing in 2015 with the New England Patriots and was rated 29th overall by Pro Football Focus among running backs for the season.

There are, of course, some drawbacks.

Blount will turn 30 at the tail end of the 2016 season. He also has a history of off-field incidents and has one drug-related suspension on his resume. He is also coming off a year that ended prematurely due to a hip injury.

An interested team would have to be confident in his ability to return to his pre-injury form, stay healthy and avoid trouble. That the Patriots weren't quick to bring him back could be telling.

However, there is a strong chance Blount does return to New England. As pointed out by Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal, the running back appeared to be issuing Snapchat posts from the Patriots facility on Wednesday. This is likely an indication that the two sides are discussing a potential return.

If the Patriots re-sign Blount, he could receive a deal worth somewhere between what Alfred Morris and James Starks received. The Dallas Cowboys gave Morris a two-year, $3.5 million deal, while Starks received a two-year, $6 million to return to the Green Bay Packers.

If Blount lands with another franchise, he could be looking at an incentive-laden one-year deal instead. 

Suggested Market Price: One- or two-year deal worth about $2 million per season

Leon Hall, Cornerback

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Veteran Leon Hall is easily the top cornerback remaining on the free-agent market. He played in 14 games for the Cincinnati Bengals last season and recorded 55 tackles and two interceptions.

Pro Football Focus rated him 27th overall among cornerbacks for 2015.

Working against Hall is the fact that he will turn 32 near the end of the 2016 season and was pushed from the starting lineup by Cincinnati this past season. He could likely still start for some teams, but many are going to see him as a short-term depth player.

This is why Hall isn't likely to see a deal like the one Tramon Williams received last offseason from the Cleveland Browns. Williams, who was 32 at the time, got a three-year, $21 million deal with $10 million guaranteed. Williams, though, was a full-time starter with the Green Bay Packers in 2014.

The Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins should consider Hall to help strengthen their secondaries. The Washington Redskins or Minnesota Vikings might also be an option due to coaching connections with the Bengals.

Unfortunately for Hall, a long-term deal with loads of guaranteed money probably isn't in the cards. The right team might be willing to offer him a two-year deal, but a one-year "prove it" deal feels more likely at this point. If Hall can show he is still starting material, then a more favorable contract will come next offseason.

Morris Claiborne signed a similar "prove it" deal earlier this offseason to remain with the Dallas Cowboys. His contract is worth $3 million for one year, but only $500,000 is guaranteed. Terence Newman, a proven, 37-year-old veteran, received a one-year, $2.5 million deal with $1.1 million guaranteed to remain with the Minnesota Vikings. If granted a one-year deal, Hall is likely to receive something similar to what these two players received, with perhaps a bit more in guarantees.

Suggested Market Price: One year, $3 million, with $1.25 million guaranteed

Greg Hardy, Defensive End

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It's difficult to imagine any NFL team making a true long-term commitment to defensive end Greg Hardy because of his past issues, both on the field and off.

The biggest issue, of course, is the alleged domestic violence incident that crept up while he was with the Carolina Panthers. It caused Hardy to miss the majority of the 2014 season and led to his exit in Carolina. Hardy continues to deny responsibility.

"I've never put my hand on any woman," Hardy said in a recent interview with ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Whether you believe Hardy or not, it's hard to deny that he is a force on the football field. He played in 12 games for the Dallas Cowboys in 2015 and finished with 35 tackles, six sacks, a forced fumble and an interception.

Pro Football Focus rated Hardy 17th overall among 3-4 defensive ends for the season.

According to Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole, several teams are interested in bringing in Hardy. However, those teams are looking to do so on a two-year deal that is heavy in incentives. This would potentially keep Hardy motivated and create some insurance in the event he runs afoul of league policy once again.

It would not be surprising if the Cincinnati Bengals or New England Patriots were among the teams interested in Hardy, as both franchises have a solid core and have welcomed in troubled players in the past. However, it's unlikely either team—or any other, for that matter—will be willing to shell out anything close to the five-year, $85 million deal that defensive end Malik Jackson got from the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason.

We'd expect Hardy to land a deal that is profitable at its maximum but dependent on reaching incentives.

Suggested Market Price: Incentive-laden two-year deal worth up to $13.5 million

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Quarterback

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Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick finds himself in a unique position. He is coming off a strong season but is getting virtually no attention on the open market.

He started all 16 games for the New York Jets in 2015, passed for 3,905 yards with 31 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while leading his team to a 10-win season. Pro Football Focus rated him 27th overall among quarterbacks for the season.

The problem for Fitzpatrick is that the Jets aren't realistically able to offer what he is asking—whatever that might be. According to Brian Costello of the New York Post, the Jets are less than $1 million under the salary cap.

According to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, the Jets asked offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson to take a significant pay cut so the team could clear cap space. Ferguson decided instead to retire, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Ferguson was set to make more than $8.6 million in base salary with a cap hit of more than $14 million for the season, per Spotrac.

The Jets can clear some room here and may clear enough to offer Fitzpatrick a back-loaded deal worth around $7 million per year.

This would give Fitzpatrick a deal similar to the two-year, $15 million deal that Robert Griffin III signed with the Cleveland Browns this offseason. Of course, that deal includes $6.75 million in guarantees. Fitzpatrick is likely to get something with fewer guaranteed dollars and a lot more in incentive-driven bonuses.

If Fitzpatrick can't find his way back to the Jets, a quarterback-needy team such as the Denver Broncos could look in his direction, though the money would likely be the same. If he ends up in an insurance role with a team like the Dallas Cowboys, he will likely receive something similar to what Brandon Weeden just got from the Houston Texans.

Weeden will earn $4 million over two years. Fitzpatrick's best option, financially, is to return to New York.

Suggested Market Value: Two years, $14.25 million

Donte Whitner, Safety

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Safety Donte Whitner finds himself in a unique position, as he only recently landed in the open market. The Cleveland Browns released him nearly a month after the start of free agency, which bothered the three-time Pro Bowler.

"I just wish they had common courtesy and would've done it weeks ago when free agency was going on," Whitner said shortly after his release, via Twitter.

Whitner has a right to be upset about the timing of his release. Most teams have already spent the majority of what they're going to spend this offseason on free-agent additions. Since a lot of teams are now looking at less cap space, the market for Whitner is more limited than what it might have been a month ago.

However, there will still be teams willing to give the man a contract. Pro Bowl-caliber players are rarely still available this late into free agency. Whitner made the Pro Bowl each year from 2012 to 2014, and though he had a down year in 2015, he was still rated 28th overall among safeties by Pro Football Focus.

Whitner is also only 30 years old and should have several strong campaigns ahead of him. This is why he could be in line for a contract lengthier than what most free agents see this time of the offseason. Contenders in need of safety help, like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers, could bring him in for a visit. However, Whitner could easily also help a rebuilding team for the next few years.

Whitner probably won't get something close to the four-year, $28 million deal the Browns gave him two years ago. However, his deal should be a bit bigger than the two-year, $8 million deal the Arizona Cardinals gave 29-year-old strong safety Tyvon Branch this offseason. A three-year deal with front-loaded guarantees feels about right.

Suggested Market Price: Three years, $15.5 million, with $6.5 million guaranteed

Note: All 2016 contract information via Spotrac.com.