The Top 10 Stories to Follow for the Rest of the NFL Offseason
Now that the calendar has turned to April, we've essentially reached the halfway point between the start of free agency and the 2016 NFL draft. This means most fans are turning the page on the first significant stage of the offseason. However, this also means we have a long, long way to go before the start of the 2016 regular season.
The next month is going to be all about the NFL draft, and once it's over, we'll get the inevitable long wait until preseason kicks off in early August.
However, this doesn't mean fans are left without anything exciting to watch once we move away from April. On the contrary, this month is all about setting up storylines for the remainder of the offseason. How does the potential Colin Kaepernick to Denver drama unfold? What will the umpteenth rebuild of the Cleveland Browns look like? What the heck is going on with Ryan Fitzpatrick?
Today, we're going to take a look at these stories and more, as we examine 10 storylines that will be worth following for the remainder of the 2016 offseason. We'll be focusing on stories that have already started to unfold—stories based solely on the pending draft are out the window.
Deflategate Fallout
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Look, we're as tired as anyone of talking about the New England Patriots and their deflated football scandal. Unfortunately, the story isn't over and is going to be one to follow throughout the offseason, so it has to be included on our list.
At least we're putting it first so everyone can move on (not in the way we'd like, of course).
The NFL is currently locked in a court appeal that could potentially result in Patriots quarterback Tom Brady having his four-game suspension reinstated. The impact of such an outcome should be obvious.
Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to bash the league's findings of the deflated football incident, via the ingeniously named website WellsReportContext.com. The website isn't likely to sway anyone in an actual court of law, but it's an entertaining read for anyone who believes the NFL's findings are invalid—and the content on the site continues to grow.
We'll also get to see how the Patriots navigate the upcoming draft without a first-round selection. New England was docked a 2016 first-rounder and a 2017 fourth-round pick as punishment for the deflated football scandal, and the team won't be getting those picks back.
"The issue is getting your draft pick back and at some point you have to realize it’s not gonna happen and the best revenge will be putting the best team on the field next year and hopefully having a very successful season,” Patriots president Jonathan Kraft recently told Tom E. Curran of CSN New England.
The Patriots will have to try putting their best team together without a first-round pick in this year's draft. They may also have to put together a team that won't have Brady for a month, depending how things transpire over the remainder of the offseason.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will be worth watching this offseason for a couple of reasons.
For starters, he is the only real starting-caliber quarterback remaining on the open market, and he could have a major impact at his next destination—especially if he winds up with a contender like the Denver Broncos (more on that situation later).
Fitzpatrick could also end up back with the New York Jets, where he started and excelled this past season. Fitzpatrick passed for 3,905 yards with 31 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while leading the Jets to a 10-win season in 2015.
The Jets and Fitzpatrick, though, are currently locked in what appears to be an ego-driven contract stalemate. Rich Cimini of ESPN.com recently explained why that stalemate might not come to a quick end.
"I don't think Fitzpatrick's pride would allow him to cave quickly; he could try to slow-play the Jets. They could try to pressure him by flirting with Brian Hoyer or Josh McCown, but they'd better be careful. If New York ends up with one of them and loses Fitzpatrick, it's a loss for the Jets, even if they save a few million bucks. They need him, he needs them. Get it done.
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If the Jets cannot re-sign Fitzpatrick, the team will be forced to examine other options, including Geno Smith and Bryce Petty. This could significantly impact a team that otherwise appears to be on the verge of a postseason return.
Even if Fitzpatrick does return to the Jets, he will be worth watching in the offseason. This past season was arguably the best of Fitzpatrick's career, and he'll need to put in serious work if he wants to continue playing at a high level.
This whole situation could get very interesting, very quickly.
Chip Kelly and the Rebuilding 49ers
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We don't know who the San Francisco 49ers will have at quarterback in 2016, and we can't be completely sure what kind of talent will be on the roster when the regular season rolls around. What we do know is that the team is on its second new head coach in as many seasons, and the current one is Chip Kelly.
Kelly's presence is the reason why the 49ers will be fascinating to watch all offseason. He had a knack in college of operating an offensive system that seemed to work regardless of the players on the field. He tried to put that system to work for the Philadelphia Eagles and had mixed results.
However, it was Kelly's gaining of roster control that ultimately created a rift between him and the team, which led to his firing before the end of the 2015 season. According to Matt Lombardo of NJ.com, Kelly quickly alienated himself from scouts and other front office personnel.
The 49ers have a general manager in Trent Baalke, so the general perception is that Kelly won't initially have total control in San Francisco. However, that perception could quickly change depending on what the 49ers do in this month's draft. Aside from hiring Kelly and the trade discussion of Colin Kaepernick, the 49ers have been quiet so far this offseason.
“Well, we haven’t done much,” Baalke recently stated, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. “We’re a draft-and-develop team. That’s what we are.”
If it even feels like Kelly is making the call on which guys the 49ers draft and develop this offseason, then it will be hard not to expect a bit of a repeat of what happened with Kelly and the Eagles.
If, however, Kelly and Baalke can find the right balance of power, then this could be a marriage that works. Kelly had success on the field in Philadelphia, after all. His Eagles teams produced a 27-21 record over the past three years.
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How Do the Browns Play Moneyball?
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For a team that doesn't produce many wins, the Cleveland Browns get an awful lot of attention. Usually, the Browns draw headlines because of their constant futility and frequently busted moves. However, there is an entirely different reason to watch Cleveland this offseason.
What the Browns are doing could literally change the NFL landscape—no, really.
Earlier this year, the Browns constructed a new analytics-driven front office led by former baseball numbers guru Paul DePodesta. The idea, it seems, is for Cleveland to bring the moneyball concept to the NFL.
So far this offseason, the Browns have mostly made moves that on the surface make the roster weaker than the one that produced all of three wins in 2015. The team allowed starters Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, Tashaun Gipson and Alex Mack to walk in free agency and later released starters Karlos Dansby and Donte Whitner.
At quarterback, the team added Robert Griffin III—a guy the Washington Redskins didn't even want near a football field a season ago.
This is certainly a weird start to Cleveland's latest rebuild. Whitner even referenced the moneyball approach after his release on Monday, via Twitter. If the novel approach actually succeeds, however, it could have other football executives changing the way they do business.
The upcoming draft could prove particularly interesting because this analytics group could come with an approach we've never seen before. It's a real possibility we could see Cleveland do something like draft only defensive linemen after Round 4—all because some analytics model suggests later draft rounds produce the most starters along the defensive line.
The Browns really are doing something experimental here and it will be worth watching. It could, however, result in another spectacular Cleveland crash-and-burn.
A Successor for Tony Romo?
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Unlike many of the teams selecting near the top of this year's draft, the Dallas Cowboys have a top-tier quarterback in Tony Romo. The problem, however, is that Romo's days as the man in Dallas could be numbered.
Romo will soon turn 36 years old, suffered two significant shoulder injuries in 2015 and recently underwent surgery to help prevent future collarbone fractures. This would be a good time for Dallas to start thinking about a succession plan.
According to NFL Media's Gil Brandt, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has gone on record stating the team doesn't plan to use its fourth overall selection on a quarterback. However, this doesn't mean Dallas won't draft a quarterback at some point this year—and the team should.
The best-case scenario for Dallas is that Romo can stay healthy and play at a high level for another four or five seasons. The worst-case scenario is that he can't stay healthy at all and the Cowboys see their playoff window slammed shut as a result.
Even if the Cowboys decide not to draft a quarterback with the future starting job in mind, the team needs to take some steps toward strengthening the depth at the position. The backup plan in 2015 wasn't nearly good enough.
Romo missed all but four games due to injury last season, and the guys who replaced him were largely a collective disaster. Pro Football Focus rated Matt Cassel 74th overall among quarterbacks for the season and rated Brandon Weeden and Kellen Moore in a tie at 51st overall.
The Cowboys have a roster completely capable of competing in the NFC East. However, the team needs a better insurance policy at quarterback for the short-term and a clear plan for the future.
The NFL in Las Vegas?
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Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis has been flirting with the idea of moving his team to Las Vegas. While at first blush it feels incredibly unlikely that the NFL would place a franchise in the gambling capital of America, such a move might be closer than we think.
At the spring owners meeting, commissioner Roger Goodell discussed the possibility of having an NFL franchise in Vegas, and he certainly didn't dismiss the idea.
"There are several cities that have a tremendous interest in the Raiders," Goodell said, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. "I'm hopeful also that Oakland will be one of those and that we can avoid any relocation to start with. Those are ultimately decisions about where they go and the impact that the potential gambling that we'd have to deal with."
We aren't likely to get any definitive decision on any move to Las Vegas this offseason, but it will be worth seeing how deep league discussions get concerning the matter.
The NFL recently sent out a memo regarding a potential Vegas relocation, according to NFL Media's Albert Breer. This suggests the league does consider such a move a realistic possibility.
This doesn't mean the Raiders will be the team to make the move, but Oakland will probably be the team to continue sparking the conversation. The conversation will probably continue throughout the offseason and could have a significant impact on the future of the NFL as a whole.
A Stronger Panthers Team?
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The Carolina Panthers only lost two games in 2015 and one of those losses came in Super Bowl 50. They could be an even more dominant team this coming season.
Just consider that the Carolina offense will be getting back receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who missed the entire 2015 season. They locked-up cornerback Josh Norman with the franchise tag; the only notable player to change teams this offseason has been punter Brad Nortman, and more additions are likely to come.
The Panthers could still look at adding veteran free agents like safety Reggie Nelson or safety Donte Whitner. This month's draft could add even more game-changing talent.
Just imagine how terrifying the Panthers defense could be if they add a pass-rusher like Clemson's Kevin Dodd in the upcoming draft. What would the league's No. 1-ranked offense (31.2 points per game) look like with a downhill runner like Derrick Henry on the roster?
According to NFL Media's Chase Goodbread, Henry has met with the Panthers already this offseason.
While the champion Denver Broncos have lost key pieces like quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler and defensive end Malik Jackson this offseason, the Panthers have lost little and will likely be even stronger by the end of the offseason.
This was never a team with many notable weaknesses, and it will be interesting to see how the Panthers decide to strengthen the team in the coming months.
The Return of Robert Griffin III
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We mentioned this earlier, but if the Cleveland Browns are good at doing one thing well, then it's staying in the headlines. Their offseason acquisition of Robert Griffin III is likely to keep them there throughout the offseason.
This is because Griffin is a fascinating story and because the potential resurrection of his career will be a story to watch in the offseason.
We're talking about a former Heisman Trophy winner and former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. We're talking about a guy who had one of the greatest rookie campaigns in NFL history but who then lost his starting job entirely because of repeated injuries and on-field regression.
Griffin will have every opportunity to get back on the field with the Browns, who are currently without a clear-cut superior option at quarterback. He might even find the kind of guidance he was missing over the past few seasons in new head coach Hue Jackson.
"I think Robert has gone to a good team," former Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan recently said on ESPN 980’s The Sports Fix with Thom Loverro and Kevin Sheehan "I think Hue will try to use his skills, what he does best, and use them the best he possibly can.“
It's possible the Browns will add to their quarterback room with the No. 2 overall pick in this month's draft, but Griffin could still bridge the gap as a one- or two-year starter in that scenario. If Griffin can regain some of the magic he showed as a rookie in 2012, it will make for one of the better NFL redemption stories we've seen in some time.
If Griffin fails in Cleveland, however, his career could well be over. How Griffin navigates the rest of this offseason could tell us a heck of a lot about how things are going to unfold.
Return of the Raiders
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The Oakland Raiders were not a powerhouse in 2015 by any stretch of the imagination, but the team did produce a respectable 7-9 season, and they do appear to be on the verge of a monumental return to relevance.
Oakland hasn't experienced a winning season since losing Super Bowl XXXVII. However, a winning season may be on the immediate horizon. The Raiders have talented core players like quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray, pass-rusher Khalil Mack and receiver Amari Cooper. The Raiders also added a bevy of talent in free agency.
Notable free-agent additions include cornerback Sean Smith, offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele and pass-rusher Bruce Irvin.
Oakland could still add to their talent pool, via free agency. Starting-caliber guys like safety Reggie Nelson, safety Donte Whitner, cornerback Leon Hall and cornerback Jerraud Powers are still available. However, it seems more likely that Oakland will now revert to the draft.
What the Raiders do in the 2016 draft will be worth watching as the moves made at the end of this month could end up launching a playoff push.
"This is just the natural progression of where it needs to go," Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio recently said, per Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group. "We laid out goals and things last year, became a competitive team, became a team that established a healthy culture of how we go about our business. Expectations have been raised and now we're just busy at work."
It's going to be both interesting and entertaining to see what work the Raiders put in over the remainder of the offseason.
Does the Broncos Quarterback Situation Include Colin Kaepernick?
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We have no real clue who will be under center for the Denver Broncos when the 2016 season kicks off, but it's looking more and more likely that it could be Colin Kaepernick.
The Broncos have resumed trade talks with the San Francisco 49ers and could acquire Kaepernick in the near future. However, the talks have currently stalled because of Kaepernick's $11.9 million salary, which has become fully guaranteed.
ESPN's Adam Schefter recently explained the details:
"The Broncos are willing to pay $7 million, a source confirmed to ESPN. But Denver and Kaepernick would like San Francisco to pay the remaining $4.9 million; the 49ers have been unwilling, according to a source, believing they should not have to pay for a player they'd like to keep on their roster. Kaepernick has also been unwilling to forfeit the $4.9 million to make the deal work, according to a source.
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If Kaepernick does make his way to Denver, then he'll likely compete with veteran Mark Sanchez for the starting job over the summer. However, the drama might not begin and end with those two.
The Broncos currently own the 31st overall pick in this month's draft and could be tempted to draft a potential quarterback-of-the-future there. If Denver does take a quarterback high in the draft—say perhaps, Memphis product Paxton Lynch—then the quarterback competition could become a three-man affair.
Whether or not Kaepernick lands in Denver or the Broncos draft a quarterback high, this quarterback situation will be one to watch closely. The Broncos are, after all, reigning Super Bowl champions and this is a team that is otherwise constructed for a repeat.
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