Breaking Down the Races for the Final NHL Playoff Spots

The “regular” portion of the 2015-16 NHL season is nearly over, with just three-to-seven games remaining for every team in the league. For most teams, the standings have devolved from a race to the playoffs into a finer consideration of either exact postseason seeding or draft lottery odds.

Still, there are a few teams on the bubble whose fate remains up in the air.

It makes sense to start with the Western Conference, where six teams have mathematically guaranteed themselves playoff games. Realistically, the seventh-ranked Nashville Predators are a lock, too, with a nine-point lead over the ninth-placed Colorado Avalanche. That reduces our consideration to two teams, and the footing of those clubs isn’t remotely even.

Pos.	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	ROW
8th	Minnesota Wild	77	38	28	11	87	35
9th	Colorado Avalanche	77	39	34	4	82	35

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

The Minnesota Wild have a five-point lead on Colorado with five games remaining to each team, which even under perfect circumstances is a pretty big gap. The remaining schedule heavily favours Minnesota, as the Wild play only one team guaranteed to be in the postseason over the remainder of their slate and also play three of their five games at home.

The Avalanche, in contrast, must run the following gauntlet:

• April 1 vs. Washington
• April 3 vs. St. Louis
• April 5 @ Nashville 
• April 7 @ Dallas
• April 9 vs. Anaheim

It would be truly shocking if the Avs somehow overtook the Wild.

The Eastern Conference is far more wide-open, with only Washington mathematically guaranteed a postseason berth. If we narrow our focus to teams within five points of the playoff bubble, however, things get a little clearer.

Pos.	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	PTS	ROW
6th	New York Islanders	75	41	25	9	91	36
7th	Boston Bruins	77	40	29	8	88	36
8th	Philadelphia Flyers	75	37	25	13	87	35
9th	Detroit Red Wings	77	38	28	11	87	36
10th	New Jersey Devils	77	37	32	8	82	35
11th	Carolina hurricanes	77	33	28	16	82	32

There are six teams vying for three spots using a five-point spread, but it’s a stretch to include three of those teams here.

The New York Islanders have 91 points and seven games left to play, with five of those at home; barring a shocking collapse, New York should be fine. At the other end of the spectrum, the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils each have only 82 points and five games to go. Each team plays three of five at home and has a mix of playoff and non-playoff opponents; if one or the other wins out it has a chance, but hope is faint.

That makes the primary race a contest between three teams, with two spots likely available. The remaining schedule for each team looks like this, with the second halves of sets of back-to-back games marked with asterisks:

Game	Boston	Philadelphia	Detroit
76	---	vs. WSH	---
77	---	vs. OTT	---
78	@ STL	@ PIT*	vs. MIN
79	@ CHI	@ DET	@ TOR*
80	vs. CAR	vs. TOR*	vs. PHI
81	vs. DET	vs. PIT	@BOS*
82	vs. OTT	@ NYI*	vs. NYR

The Bruins, currently with 88 points, are in some danger here. A loss to New Jersey on Tuesday hurt them, and playing in St. Louis and Chicago is going to be tough. The good news is that the final three games are at home against more beatable teams, including a potentially critical matchup against a tired Red Wings team.

Also working in Boston’s favour is that it really only needs to worry about Detroit; the Bruins currently hold third place in the Atlantic division, and all of the other teams we’ve considered, including the long shots, reside in the Metropolitan. If the Bruins can hold off the Wings, they’re in.

Elsa/Getty Images

Philadelphia has the most games left on its slate, but with a compressed schedule which includes three sets of back-to-back contests, that’s a somewhat mixed blessing.

The loss of Michal Neuvirth for the remainder of the regular season could be a critical factor, too, as Sportsnet's Dimitri Filipovic noted; goalies who play both parts of a back-to-back set generally see a decline in performance, which could hurt Steve Mason's play over these last few critical games. 

Four of the seven games are at home, the opposition is a middling blend of teams and, importantly, the Flyers will be rested for a critical Game 79 against Detroit. 

Detroit has the worst of both worlds, schedule-wise. Like the Bruins, the Red Wings only have five games left, but like the Flyers they also have to play multiple back-to-back sets.

The good news is that if they can stay relatively competitive, they have two four-point games remaining to them. Regulation wins over Philadelphia and Boston in Games 80 and 81 would do a world of good for Detroit and could well be the difference between making and missing the postseason.

Still, there’s little question as to where the smart money lies right now. On paper, the Islanders, Bruins and Flyers have the strongest cases to claim the last three spots. Detroit is firmly in the mix but at this point is difficult to favour, while the Devils and Hurricanes could each use a 5-for-5 run and a little bit of help from the teams ahead of them.

There’s also no question that the highest possibility of surprise and drama lies in the East, where the playoff picture is far less settled. Unless Colorado can go on a run and get some help from the Wild, there’s little hope for a competitive race in the West in the dying days of the 2015-16 NHL season.

Statistics courtesy of NHL.com.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitterfor more of his work.