Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Shell Houston Open
With just a week until the Masters, the 33 golfers in the Shell Houston Open field who have secured an invite to golf’s first major will be keen to get dialed in before heading to Georgia. The rest of the golfers, well, they’ll be looking to hoist the trophy in Houston, as that’s the only way they can still earn an invite from Augusta National Chairman Billy Payne.
The field features now world No. 2 Jordan Spieth, who was usurped by Jason Day at last week’s WGC-Dell Match Play Championship, as well as four of the other top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Looking at course keys for the Golf Club of Houston, per the experts at GolfStrat: Total driving, greens in regulation, strokes gained: putting and driving distance will all be key this week.
Who fits the bill based on the above? What are the biggest storylines from the Lone Star State? Click through to see.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion: J.B. Holmes
Where: Golf Club of Houston (Humble,Texas): 7,441 yards, par 72
What
Total Purse: $6.8 million
Winning Share: $1,224,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 4-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday-Sunday: 1:00-3:00 p.m. ET (GC), 3:00-6 p.m. ET (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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The long shadows cast by Augusta National’s loblolly pines extend all the way to Houston this week where, as mentioned in the intro, players poised to tee it up in the season’s first major are hoping for solid weeks and a shot of confidence and confirmation. And of course, the golf media will be incapable of not gazing to the east. So expect Masters chatter aplenty.
On the ground at the Rees Jones-designed course in Houston, Jordan Spieth hasn’t tallied a top-15 stroke-play finish anywhere since January. A strong showing, or a win, would do much to quiet the mutterings that the 22-year-old Texan’s game isn’t sharp enough at the moment to mount a successful title defense at Augusta National.
Henrik Stenson, fresh off a week of rest, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson (playing his customary Masters tune-up) will, along with Spieth, attract the lion’s share of the attention this week.
Also, it’s worth noting that despite the course’s reputation as a warm-up for Augusta National, only two winners have gone on to finish in the top 15 at the Masters (with the tournament in its current pre-Masters slot): a multiweek storyline to keep an eye on.
The Favorites
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Jordan Spieth: Jordan Spieth enters the Shell Houston Open, where he finished second last year, following a loss to Louis Oosthuizen in the round of 16 at the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship. Spieth finished 18th at the Valspar Championship in his immediately prior tournament. The Texan is currently 25th on tour in strokes gained: putting, 29th in total driving and eighth in strokes gained: total.
Rickie Fowler: The Oklahoma State alum finished sixth at the Shell Houston Open in 2014. Prior to the Dell Match Play, Fowler finished eighth at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and second at the Honda Classic. Fowler is fifth in greens in regulation, ninth in strokes gained: putting, 20th in total driving and fourth in strokes gained: total.
Other top contenders: Louis Oosthuizen, Henrik Stenson, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, J.B. Holmes
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The Dark Horses
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Jimmy Walker: An adoptive Texan who frequently plays well in Texas, Jimmy Walker enters the Shell Houston Open under the radar, as all eyes are trained on another Lone Star State dweller. Walker finished sixth in his most recent stroke-play event (the WGC-Cadillac Championship) and finished 24th in his last Shell Houston Open appearance (2014). He's 15th on tour in strokes gained: total.
Charles Howell III: Seems like Howell could win every week, but he never does. The Augusta, Georgia, native hasn’t teed it up in the Masters since 2012, when he finished tied for 19th. And while we say it every year he hasn’t qualified, Howell has a little extra motivation this week. He finished 46th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in his most recent start and has top-10 finishes in two of his last three Shell Houston Open efforts
Prediction
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Winner: Henrik Stenson
Henrik Stenson is coming off a week of rest following his third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which came after an 11th-place finish at the Valspar Championship.
He finished second at the Shell Houston Open in 2013 and third in 2009, so he has an aptitude for getting around the Golf Club of Houston.
Looking at key statistical indicators of success at the tournament, Stenson is 10th in total driving, 14th in greens in regulation, 122nd in strokes gained: putting (he was 16th last year) and 88th in driving distance. The Swede is fifth on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green.
This guy has to win again, eventually, right? Spieth is struggling, and Rickie Fowler is the only objectively “better” (per the Official World Golf Ranking) player in the field. Given his course fit, history and solid recent performance, Stenson is a solid pick to hoist the trophy this week.
All stats via PGATour.com.
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