
NFL Rumor Mill: Buying and Selling the Latest Talk from NFL Owners' Meetings
Earlier this week. representatives of all 32 NFL teams met in Boca Raton, Florida, for the annual spring owners' meetings. For three days, owners had an opportunity to discuss the upcoming season and to vote on potential rule changes.
Of course, while the NFL franchises were getting down to business in Boca, the rumor mill was churning along at a steady pace. That's just what happens when you get owners, executives and coaches together with media types in the same place at the same time.
Today, we're going to bypass the rule-change discussion and focus on the flow of chatter to come from spring meetings.
Which rumors do we believe are grounded in reality? Which ones are pure fantasy? Join us as we examine the talk coming out of the NFL owners' meetings and try to separate fact from fiction.
As always, be sure to give us your take in the comments section.
Buy: The NFL Really Could Put a Team in Las Vegas Someday
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The Oakland Raiders didn't successfully navigate a relocation to Los Angeles this past year, but owner Mark Davis hasn't pulled the plug on attempts to potentially move the team somewhere in the foreseeable future.
That somewhere could include the gambling capital of America, Las Vegas, Nevada.
"I think the Raiders would maximize Vegas," Davis recently stated, per Ken Belson of the New York Times.
While it's difficult to argue that at least a portion of the NFL's popularity doesn't come from gambling, the league itself has traditionally taken a public stance against the practice. However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell's statements at the owners' meetings didn't make it sound like the gambling aspect of Las Vegas would be a deal-breaker.
When asked about the Raiders' possible relocation to a city with legalized gambling, Goodell said the following, per Barry Wilner of the Associated Press:
"Those are things we'd have to deal with. We would have to understand the impact on us. Each owner would have a vote; it would be a factor many owners would have to balance, the league would have to balance. I think their ultimate decision is a long ways off. There are several cities that have a tremendous interest in the Raiders. I'm hopeful also that Oakland will be one of those and that we can avoid any relocation to start with.
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There would most certainly be a number of hurdles to overcome in order to move an NFL franchise to Las Vegas. There would almost definitely be stipulations involved to help discourage potential game-fixing, as well—for example, the league might require Vegas sportsbooks to refuse wagers involving the local franchise.
However, we can buy that a team in Las Vegas is something that could be a reality one day. We're talking about a city that brings in a heck of a lot of money, and one that would likely funnel a large sum of money toward a local sports franchise and its parent league.
If there's one thing we know for sure about the NFL and its team owners, it's that everyone involved loves an opportunity to make more money.
Buy: The Browns Aren't Interested in Trading Joe Thomas
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The Cleveland Browns are clearly embarking on a long-term rebuilding effort, and it seems that the plan is to build almost exclusively through the draft. This has led to plenty of speculation that the team could shop the one truly elite player it possesses—perennial Pro Bowl tackle Joe Thomas.
However, the Browns made it known during spring meetings that the team isn't interested in moving the potential Hall of Famer.
"Again, our plan is not to trade Joe Thomas," team vice president Sashi Brown said, per Pat McManamon of ESPN.com. "He'll be our left tackle."
This could be a ploy by Cleveland to lay the foundation for a highly compensated trade. Most teams will be inclined to offer less if they believe Cleveland actually wants to move Thomas.
However, we really do believe the plan right now is for the Browns to have Thomas on the field this coming season. The Browns just signed quarterback Robert Griffin III to a two-year, $15 million deal and could still use a first- or second-round pick on a signal-caller in this year's draft.
If the Browns have any notion of Griffin or a yet-to-be-named rookie becoming their franchise signal-caller, it would only make sense to keep the blind side well protected. Thomas might be 31 years old, but he has never missed a snap for Cleveland and has never missed a Pro Bowl during his nine-year career.
Pro Football Focus rated Thomas second overall among offensive tackles for the 2015 season.
Cleveland allowed three key offensive pieces—right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, Pro Bowl center Alex Mack and receiver Travis Benjamin—to walk in free agency this offseason. Moving Thomas would almost completely empty the proverbial cupboard and would essentially set this year's quarterback up for failure.
Sure, the right draft-day deal could come along and wow Cleveland enough for the team to pull the trigger. However, we believe the team has no current plans to make such a move.
Sell: The 49ers Were Never Really Interested in Trading Colin Kaepernick
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There has been a good amount of speculation this offseason that the San Francisco 49ers could have some interest in moving quarterback Colin Kaepernick via trade. The team, however, publicly downplayed the idea at spring meetings.
General Manager Trent Baalke did admit that the team gave Kaepernick permission to seek a trade, but he added that actually trading him was not the team's intent.
"Our intent was for him to be back and to go to work ... the more important thing is what our expectations are of the player," Baalke said, per Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com. "He's under contract and unless, or until that changes, our expectations don't change."
Were not exactly buying that trading Kaepernick was never a realistic option for the 49ers. This is a guy who posted a career-low passer rating of 78.5 in 2015 and who was eventually benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert.
Pro Football Focus rated Kaepernick 77th overall among 78 quarterbacks for the 2015 season.
We're also talking about a guy whose $11.9 million salary for the upcoming season will become fully guaranteed on April 1. It's incredibly hard to believe the 49ers wouldn't have pulled the trigger on a deal that earned fair compensation and allowed them to wipe Kaepernick's salary from their books.
The likely reality is that San Francisco simply never received a trade offer that made much sense.
According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, the Browns were at one point willing to deal a third-round pick for Kaepernick if the quarterback agreed to restructure his contract. Seeing as how San Francisco's option come April 1 will be to pay Kaepernick nearly $12 million guaranteed or to release him to the open market, a contract restructuring was never going to happen.
Cleveland's proposed deal was likely the best—and perhaps only—deal cast in the 49ers' direction. We're betting that if something more enticing had come along, San Francisco would have bitten.
Buy: Brandon Mebane Can Significantly Improve Chargers Defense
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The San Diego Chargers' acquisition of free-agent defensive tackle Brandon Mebane didn't grab a lot of headlines earlier this offseason. However, men who have coached the longtime Seattle Seahawks defender in the past were raving about him during NFL spring meetings.
Former Seattle defensive coordinator and current Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn said the following of Mebane, per Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com:
"I could talk all day about him in terms of what he brings from a leadership standpoint. One of the things I was always impressed about Brandon is if you see him at the line of scrimmage before he gets into his stance, oftentimes he’ll point and say ‘The run’s coming here.’ So by his ability to communicate, knowing back sets and line splits, he’s able to direct to some of the guys what might be happening.
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Quinn wasn't the only former coordinator lauding Mebane in Boca.
"He’s a guy who lines up, plays and makes plays over and over again," Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley said, also per Williams. "I don’t think he gets credit for how good he is. But he’s very good against the run, and very good in the D-line meeting room and bringing those guys together."
We don't think that what former coaches are saying is strictly lip service. We're buying the idea that Mebane can significantly help San Diego's 20th-ranked (361.9 yards per game allowed) defense.
In addition to being a savvy veteran and a seasoned leader, Mebane is still a very productive football player. He started 15 games for the Seahawks in 2015 and did a good job of creating interior pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Pro Football Focus rated Mebane 22nd overall among defensive tackles in pass rush for the 2015 season. This is noteworthy because Pro Football Focus also rated the Chargers 28th in the league in terms of team pass rush for the season.
Don't be surprised if the addition of Mebane proves to be one of those under-the-radar moves that pays off in a big way this season.
Buy: The Rest of the NFL Has No Problems with Nailing Robert Kraft
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We're still not entirely sure what the fallout of the deflated-football scandal will ultimately be for New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. However, commissioner Roger Goodell has already hit the franchise and owner Robert Kraft hard.
New England surrendered a first-round and a fourth-round draft pick and was fined $1 million. During a press conference at the end of the spring meeting, Goodell made it clear that Kraft and the Patriots would not be seeing the picks returned.
Kraft apparently wrote Goodell a letter requesting the picks be returned.
“I did receive the letter from Robert, and I responded to him two weeks ago,” Goodell said, per the Associated Press. “I told him that I had considered his views, and I didn’t think there was any new information.”
Goodell may have been directing his comments to other league owners as much as he was providing them for the media.
According to radio personality Chris Russo, other league owners have had virtually no support for Kraft during the entire deflated-football ordeal. Russo recently said the following on an episode (*Disclaimer: the original podcast contains NSFW language*) of Kirk Minihane’s “Enough About Me” podcast on WEEI.com:
"We got Kraft. We don’t like Kraft. We got him already. We nailed him for a million dollars, and he lost a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. And we made sure that Kraft did not appeal it because we all bombarded him at the owners’ meetings and said, ‘Bob, you’ve got no support here. Do what you have to do. You have no support. Nobody is going to back you up.'
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Russo was most likely paraphrasing owners during his appearance, but the message is clear. Other owners are not extremely fond of Mr. Kraft. We don't know if that general dislike is because of cheating allegations that date back to Spygate or simply because of jealousy over New England's sustained success.
We are buying, however, that no one is going to shed a tear for Kraft and the loss of his money and his team's draft picks.
Sell: Justin Houston Could Miss the Entire 2016 Season
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Kansas City Chiefs pass-rusher Justin Houston underwent ACL surgery in February, and the early reports indicated that he could miss six to 12 months.
"We're hoping just because of his work ethic and he's been a fast healer in the past that's not the case and that he'll be able to play this season,'' Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said, per Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. "It's too early to be able to tell on that."
However, talk circulating at the owners meetings seems to indicate that Houston is in real danger of missing the entire 2016 season.
"Speaking to people at NFL owners meetings, it's clear that Chiefs' LB Justin Houston's 2016 season is in jeopardy," ESPN's Adam Schefter stated via Twitter.
We seriously doubt that the Chiefs are trying to up-sell Houston's injury in any sort of effort of predraft espionage, of course. However, it's hard to believe that Houston really will miss all of the upcoming season.
Houston had his surgery on February 16. If he is looking at the short end of the six-to-12-month time frame, he'd be back on the field in time for preseason. Sitting out the preseason would then buy Houston an additional month of recovery time.
Even if it appears in late summer that Houston isn't close to recovery, our best guess is that Kansas City would use the IR boomerang to make him eligible for a late-season return. Houston has produced 29.5 sacks over the past two seasons and would certainly be an asset as the Chiefs make their final post-season push.
The only way we can see Houston not returning at some point is if he isn't ready until late in the season and the Chiefs have fallen out of the playoff race by then. At that point, it wouldn't make sense to risk re-injury.
Judging from this hilarious Twitter post from Houston, it's clear he believes he'll be back on the field this year as well.
Buy: The Eagles Will Add a Quarterback in the 2016 Draft
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The Philadelphia Eagles made two significant moves at the quarterback position this offseason. First, the team locked up Sam Bradford with a new two-year, $35 million deal. Philadelphia then added Chase Daniel, who spent the last three seasons under new Eagles head coach Doug Pederson in Kansas City with the Chiefs.
The Eagles, though, might not be quite done making moves.
Owner Jeff Lurie stated during owners' meetings that he would prefer the team draft a quarterback this year, presumably to develop for the future.
"We’re still looking for a third quarterback, somewhere in the draft, like we used to do," Lurie said, per Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice.com.
Normally, we'd be wary of such a predraft statement being pure smoke-screen material. However, adding a quarterback would certainly make a lot of sense for the Eagles and is an idea we can get behind. Bradford still hasn't proved he can be a true franchise quarterback, and Daniel has all of two pro starts on his resume.
We can even buy the idea of Philadelphia drafting a quarterback in Round 1. The Eagles have already traded to secure the eighth overall selection and could move up further, a prospect NFL Media's Lance Zierlein recently examined. According to Zierlein, one unnamed NFC executive recently said the following:
"Don't be surprised if a team like the Eagles makes a really strong move up the board to get Wentz. I don't think he's worth it, but I think they do. Everyone thinks you have to move ahead of Cleveland, but (Browns Chief Strategy Officer Paul DePodesta) will want to get as many picks as possible out of this draft. It wouldn't surprise me if a team moved directly to Cleveland's spot for Wentz.
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If we're going to play NFL conspiracy theorist (and we are), locking up Bradford might just have been part of a long plot to gather ammunition for a future trade. The Eagles already have one Pederson guy in Daniel and might want to add another on draft day.
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