March Madness 2016: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 16

The bubble membrane is as thick and slippery now as it is any time during college basketball season.

Teams land on it, bounce off, slide down, gain purchase on the side or drop into oblivion. And still, the bubble just keeps expanding.

At any given late-February moment, several teams have treacherous footing and appear to be imminent threats to either fall away or gain that crucial bit of traction for higher ground, like contestants running a game show obstacle course.

Which teams are at that critical point here in the 16th week of the season? Let us now take a look at the most bubblicious of the bubble teams and find out which way their arrows are trending.

Each team listed here appears to be on particularly unstable ground, either for better or worse. They all are listed as bubble teams as of Feb. 25 by ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi and/or CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm, so if you don't care for the designation, take it up with them. 

All stats provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Troy Caupain

This is what a mixed bag looks like.

The Bearcats have some decent wins. VCU, George Washington and Connecticut (twice) are on their record.

So, too, are losses to every team that was ranked when they played, plus a clunker here and there.

By and large, though, they've taken care of the teams they were supposed to and vice versa. It has earned them an OK-but-unspectacular RPI ranking of 56 in the current ranking and a fourth-place spot in the nip-and-tuck American Athletic Conference race.

Games at East Carolina and Houston, then a regular-season finale at home against conference-leading SMU (not to mention the conference tournament) will be crucial for their fortunes. Still, hitting the 20-win mark against the Huskies last Saturday gave them a boost they probably needed.

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Monmouth Hawks

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Micah Seaborn

The Hawks' 47th RPI ranking is solid rock for the MAC. But, in effect, for every win over a Notre Dame, there's a loss to an Army.

Dropping that grudge match at home to Iona might have been a red flag. Monmouth has been a fun story all season, but if it wants to be more than that, it may want to run the table in its conference tournament.

Stock Down

Butler Bulldogs

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Kelan Martin

Butler is hanging on but just by the skin of its teeth. 

If the Bulldogs want to hang on to the 12th seed they currently have, per Lunardi, they need to turn on the jets in the final three games of the regular season. If they can grab a win at Georgetown, complete a season sweep at home against Seton Hall, put Marquette out of its misery in the finale, then put in a good showing in the Big East tournament, they'll be looking good.

But if they should stumble, their two wins over ranked opponents (Cincinnati and Purdue) and their not-exactly-sparkling 62nd RPI ranking may not be enough to carry the day.

Holding Steady

Alabama Crimson Tide

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Shannon Hale (left)

Don't you love it when the little guy gets a seat at the big table? Alabama's athletics department sure has that giant-killer feel, doesn't it?

Pigskin aside, it has been a nice resurgent month for the Crimson Tide. On Jan. 30, they were 11-9. Now they're 16-11, with wins over Texas A&M and Florida in their pockets.

Part of it may be a result of head coach Avery Johnson getting accustomed to his role and roster.

"I've learned to use different voices with my players," Johnson said, according to Ron Higgins of the Times-Picayune. "You have to make sure you don't use your discipline voice or your intense voice all the time. You have to use your loving voice, because sometimes these guys need a hug."

Consecutive defeats to Kentucky and (ugh) Mississippi State have brought the Tide back to Earth, but they're still in a much better place—which is to say, somewhere—than they were a month ago.

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VCU Rams

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

JeQuan Lewis (right) fights for a loose ball

VCU has hit the skids.

It's unclear at this point where the Rams are on the bubble—which epitomizes bubble status—but they're 3-3 in their last six, including a loss to lowly George Mason. The skid has sent them into a three-way tie for first in the A-10, alongside Dayton and St. Joseph's. And St. Bonaventure and George Washington are breathing down all of their necks.

In fact, the A-10 might be the most bubblicious conference. It's not going to get more than two or three teams into the Big Dance. That should make for some enticing conference tourney games for all non-stakeholding fans, but it's not good news for the former front-runner VCU.

Stock Down

Wisconsin Badgers

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Apparently the Badgers are pretty good at playing possum.

Or at least recovering quickly from injury. Remember when everyone left them for dead after those gross home losses to Milwaukee and Western Illinois, among others? 

That feels like a long time ago now that they've ripped off wins over Maryland (on the road) and Iowa. Bronson Koenig is coming on and ensuring that Nigel Hayes doesn't have to do too much.

As a result, things are suddenly looking pretty rosy in Madison. According to the Wisconsin State Journal, "at this point the Badgers would probably have to lose their remaining three games, plus have a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament to truly be in jeopardy of losing their spot in the field of 68."

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