NFL Draft Prospects with Most to Lose at Combine Workouts

The annual NFL Scouting Combine is now underway. Over the next week, hundreds of draft hopefuls will be poked, prodded, questioned and run through various drills and exercises in order to better grade their pro potential.

The combine is really a small portion of the overall evaluation process. It pales in comparison to the years of game tape most of these players have produced, and it can be overshadowed by performances in upcoming collegiate pro days. However, the combine has become an event, and as an event, it carries weight and can bring heavy opinions.

For prospects with high draft stocks, there often isn't much to gain at the combine. A strong workout only solidifies the perception that a player can be great. An average or poor workout at the very least can cause a player to be further dissected between the combine and the ensuing draft.

In many cases, a poor combine performance can significantly hurt a player's draft stock, which is why in the past, many top prospects have chosen to wait until the controlled environments of their pro days to work out for scouts.

This year, though, it appears many of the top prospects will participate in combine workouts. NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reports that the top quarterback prospects—California's Jared Goff, Memphis' Paxton Lynch and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz—will throw at the combine. Other top prospects, such as Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Ohio State back Ezekiel Elliott, are expected to work out as well.

We're going to look at some of the top prospects who have a lot to lose—and perhaps little to gain—at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine. These are players who are already generally projected as first- or second-round selections and run the risk of stumbling in Indianapolis.

Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky

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Eastern Kentucky pass-rusher Noah Spence won't be the only player who faces tough questions during the interview portion of the combine. However, interviews are going to be one of the most important pieces of the combine for him.

Unlike a lot of small-school draft prospects, Spence's level of competition shouldn't be a huge deterrent for potential NFL employers. Yes, he racked up 13.5 sacks with Eastern Kentucky this past season, but he also amassed 7.5 with the Ohio State Buckeyes back in 2013.

Teams are much more likely to have a hang-up with the repeated failed drug tests that forced Spence out of Ohio State and caused him to eventually transfer to Eastern Kentucky.

According to Brian Bennett of ESPN.com, Spence was using the drug Ecstasy on Friday and Saturday nights during the offseason and on Saturdays after games during the season.

"I got real caught up in the college lifestyle," Spence said, per Bennett. "Every weekend, I was doing too much. I was young and stupid and I thought I could go out and party all the time."

The goal for Spence at the combine will be to convince teams that his partying ways are far behind him. He'll then have to put together a strong on-field performance to help persuade scouts that he is worth the risk of a high draft pick.

If Spence can ease concerns, he could easily be an early first-round selection—NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah placed him in the top 10 in a recent mock draft. However, missteps on the field or in the interview room could cause him to slide.

Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

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Cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III has quite a bit to prove—and a lot to lose—at this year's scouting combine.

The former Florida standout is in the running to be the first cornerback off the board in April. He had a strong career at Florida, and he is looking like a borderline top-10 pick. NFL Media's Bucky Brooks projected Hargreaves to the Baltimore Ravens at No. 6 overall in a recent mock draft.

However, Hargreaves will have to answer questions about his size and speed at the combine. NFL.com lists his unofficial measurements at 5'11" and 192 pounds. Defensive backs are scheduled to officially weigh in on Saturday, and if Hargreaves comes in under those estimates, teams could question his ability to match up with bigger, more physical receivers in the NFL.

Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Ian Wharton recently took an in-depth look at what's at stake for Hargreaves at the combine. In his article, he explains why on-field workouts like the 40-yard dash will be important for Hargreaves:

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The first thing Hargreaves needs to show is his speed. While the 40-yard dash is overvalued by the public, it's important for players who struggle with speed on the field to show they can improve. The biggest weakness Hargreaves consistently had on the field was handling deep routes. Cornerbacks are in a tough spot because the slightest mistake can lead to chunk yards for the offense. Hargreaves has to sell out hard when he feels the threat of a deep route when he lines up on the line of scrimmage.

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If he checks all the boxes in terms of measurables, athleticism and speed, then Hargreaves should remain a likely high first-round pick. He matches up well with former Florida corner Joe Haden, who went seventh overall to the Cleveland Browns in 2010.

However, he could easily slip in the draft if his outing at the combine causes teams to question his ceiling as a pro prospect. If such questions emerge, Hargreaves could see himself passed over in the draft for a prospect such as 6'1" Florida State corner Jalen Ramsey.

Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

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Baylor wide receiver Corey Coleman was one of college football's most explosive pass-catchers this past season. He racked up 74 receptions for 1,363 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2015. The year before, he produced 64 receptions, 1,119 yards and 11 scores.

On-field production isn't an issue for Coleman, and he is trending as a potential first-round draft selection. NFL Draft Scout even tabs him as the second-best wide receiver in the 2016 draft.

The question with Coleman is one of size. NFL.com lists his unofficial measurements at 5'11" and 190 pounds. This would be a less-than-ideal size for an outside receiver at the NFL level. Coleman was primarily an outside receiver at Baylor.

It isn't unheard of for undersized receivers to excel on the outside, of course. New York Giants star Odell Beckham Jr. is just 5'11" and 198 pounds. However, there is a chance that Coleman's unofficial measurements are on the generous side.

Combine measurements for receivers are scheduled for Thursday. If Coleman comes in smaller than expected, then teams may start viewing him as more of a secondary or slot option. Either way, he is going to have to prove he has elite speed and agility on the drill field.

Coleman simply isn't a big-body type who can outmuscle and outjump defenders for the football. He must prove he can gain separation on an NFL field in other ways. He also must show that he is 100 percent recovered from the sports hernia surgery he had at the end of last year.

If Coleman isn't healthy or doesn't check the boxes in the size-speed department, then his draft stock could start to fall as other receivers begin to rise.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

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Running back Ezekiel Elliott was an absolute star for the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2015. He racked up a whopping 1,821 yards rushing, 206 yards receiving and 23 touchdowns on the season. He also has the size NFL teams want at the running back position.

Elliott measured in at just under 6'0" and weighed in at 225 pounds at the combine on Wednesday.

There's a strong chance that Elliott will be the first running back selected in this year's draft. NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah even has him going in the top 15 in his most recent mock draft.

However, a poor showing in Indianapolis could cause Elliott's stock to slip.

Elliott's biggest competition at this point is Heisman winner Derrick Henry of Alabama. Henry measured in at a much stouter 6'3" and 247 pounds. The former Crimson Tide star can potentially close the gap between him and Elliott with a standout combine performance.

This is why Elliott needs to excel in combine workouts over the next week. He's trending ahead of the pack now, but a slip-up in agility drills or in the 40-yard dash could cause teams to question whether he is worth an early first-round pick.

If teams feel the gap between Elliott and Henry isn't significant, they won't be as quick to pull the trigger on draft day. If teams end up viewing Henry as a superior prospect, it could cost Elliott quite a bit in terms of draft stock and future earnings.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

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Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche has all the physical tools to be a disruptive and productive defensive lineman at the pro level. He is unofficially listed by NFL.com at 6'4" and 296 pounds, and several highlight moments will show up on his game tape.

Nkemdiche is projected as a first-round selection by NFL Draft Scout.

However, he will have to ease concerns about both on- and off-field issues, as Mark Bullock of the Washington Post recently explained:

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Interviews will be the key for Nkemdiche. Teams have plenty of questions that will need to be answered. First, they’re likely to ask why Nkemdiche wasn’t consistent on the field. There were times when he appeared to lack effort, taking plays or series off and not playing hard. Was he trying to protect himself against injury? Was he simply schemed out of plays? Or was he lazy? Full effort is the minimum teams expect from their players.

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Nkemdiche will also have to answer questions about his December arrest for marijuana possession. He reportedly fell 15 feet out of an open window, was later charged with possession and was eventually suspended for the remainder of the season.

"I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week," Nkemdiche said after the incident, per Chris Low of ESPN.com. "And I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character."

In addition to convincing teams that his character concerns won't be a problem, Nkemdiche will also have to show up on the drill field. Otherwise, teams aren't likely to be as quick to gamble on the potential defensive star.

Remember, former Nebraska star Randy Gregory fell out of the first round in last year's draft, in large part because of marijuana concerns. He was recently issued a four-game suspension for violation of the league's drug policy. If teams in any way feel Nkemdiche has similar issues, they're going to proceed with caution.

Jared Goff, QB, California

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California quarterback Jared Goff has a lot to lose at the combine, because he has a realistic chance to be one of the top two picks in April's draft.

Goff was a three-year starter for the Golden Bears and displayed plenty of arm talent to go with nearly ideal footwork and pocket presence. He finished the 2015 season with an impressive 4,714 yards passing, 43 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

On-field productivity isn't a question for Goff, and he's spent much of the past year looking like the top quarterback prospect of 2016.

However, another quarterback prospect by the name of Carson Wentz has recently risen in popularity among scouts. In terms of ceiling, NFL Network's Mike Mayock even compared Wentz to Indianapolis Colts star Andrew Luck.

"I see a ceiling for this kid similar to Andrew Luck," Mayock said, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "That's why I believe in this kid so much. But it's going to take a little bit of time.''

Going into the combine, it appears Goff is the pro-ready prospect, while Wentz is the high-upside quarterback. The problem for Goff is that Wentz could potentially secure the position of top quarterback prospect at the combine.

Goff has adequate size for the quarterback position—the Golden Bears list him at 6'4" and 215 pounds—but he has a slight build that might not stand up to repeated beatings. North Dakota State lists Wentz at 6'6" and 231 pounds—a more ideal size for a pro passer.

If Wentz can show that the gap in arm strength and accuracy between him and Goff isn't significant, then he could be the guy to go at the top of Round 1.

Goff may have to be virtually perfect on the drill field in Indianapolis to remain on top of quarterback boards. Anything else could potentially drain his draft stock.

Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

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Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller is yet another pass-catcher who will have to answer size/speed concerns at the combine.

Fuller has adequate height for the receiver position, but he is on the thin side for an outside receiver prospect. NFL.com lists his unofficial measurements at 6'0" and 172 pounds. If those measurements are close to accurate, then Fuller projects as a player who could struggle to get off the line and beat defenders in close space.

Of course, these might not be major concerns if Fuller can prove that he possesses top-end speed. If he's too quick for defenders to get a hand on him, then his size won't be so much of an issue.

It certainly didn't limit Fuller from shining at Notre Dame this past season. In 2015, the downfield playmaker caught 62 passes for 1,258 yards and 14 touchdowns. NFL Draft Scout projects him as a second-round selection.

Where Fuller could run into problems is on the drill field. If he isn't one of the combine's top performers in the 40-yard dash, it could hurt his reputation as a guy who can win on the outside with breakaway quickness. Poor performances in agility drills could lead to questions about his ability to run routes effectively at the pro level.

Speed and agility will both be important for Fuller at the next level, as he isn't the type of player to pick up much after contact. If he appears merely average in these areas, concerns about Fuller's size could be magnified, causing his stock to slide.

Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

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We've already mentioned that Ohio State back Ezekiel Elliott could potentially lose some ground to Alabama's Derrick Henry at the combine, depending on individual workout results. However, we have to also mention that Henry has a lot at stake in drills as well.

NFL Draft Scout pegs Henry as the draft's second-best running back behind Elliott and a likely second-round pick. Yet, that projection could easily go out the window if Henry doesn't wow during on-field workouts, which are scheduled for Friday.

This is because teams have little choice but to wonder if Henry is really an upper-echelon talent or if he is a product of the Alabama system. Former Alabama backs such as Eddie Lacy and Mark Ingram have shown flashes of brilliance at the pro level, but they haven't been consistent. The jury is still out on T.J. Yeldon, and Trent Richardson was an absolute bust.

Henry rushed for an impressive 2,219 yards in 2015, but did he achieve greatness based on talent or because of the personnel around him? Henry can show scouts that his talent is legitimate with a strong performance on the field.

NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah believes Henry will do exactly that:

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The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, who rushed for 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns last fall, is expected to show up around 240 pounds, run in the mid-4.4s and record a vertical jump around 40 inches. As a player, he reminds me of a faster version of Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs ran in the mid-4.5s). I expect Henry to land in the second round in April.

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The problem for Henry is that a slow 40 time or a disappointing showing in agility drills could significantly hurt his draft stock. He could even potentially fall out of the second round with a bad day as speedier, shiftier backs gain draft momentum.