
Lamar Miller Has Highest Ceiling of Available Offensive Players in Free Agency
A 24-year-old running back with untapped potential and a career average carry of 4.6 yards, Lamar Miller has the highest ceiling of any offensive player entering free agency.
Spending on top free agents in the NFL is almost always a gamble. But the risks are marginalized when the money goes to a player under the age of 25 with the talent to outproduce the contract, and Miller fits the bill.
In fact, Miller is exactly the kind of player teams should be lining up to sign.
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The former fourth-round pick of the Dolphins doesn't turn 25 until April. Despite consistently producing when provided the opportunity, Miller has only carried 200 or more times once in his four NFL seasons. With under 800 career touches, he figures to be entering the prime of his career with little tread on his tires.
Many consider Doug Martin to be the top running back scheduled to become a free agent. That's understandable, given he is coming off a season in which he finished second in the NFL in rushing. However, Martin is also 27 years old, and he's accumulated almost 1,000 career touches. Twice in his four NFL seasons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back has rushed for fewer than 500 yards.
| L. Miller | 61 | 638 | 2,930 | 4.6 | 19 | 117 |
| D. Martin | 49 | 868 | 3,806 | 4.4 | 20 | 107 |
Coming off a career year and hitting the open market, Martin may look for up to $8 million per season on a multiyear deal. For comparison, DeMarco Murray signed a five-year, $40 million deal with the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason.
A five-year contract for Martin wouldn't expire until he is 32—well past the dreaded running back age of 30. For Miller, the same deal would end while he's still 29.
But age isn't the only reason why there's a good chance the team signing Miller will get more bang for its buck than the team acquiring (or re-signing) Martin.
Over just the last two seasons, Miller has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, scored 16 rushing touchdowns and caught 85 passes. Criminally underused in Miami, he's now rightly looking for an opportunity to become a featured player.
“I want to be a featured back,” Miller said, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "I want the recognition I deserve.”

Used correctly in the right system, Miller could blossom into one of the NFL's most productive backs. He still doesn't have a season averaging under four yards per carry, and his ability to handle all three downs—as a receiver and pass-blocker—could give him the potential to be the focal point of an offense.
"He has tons of talent, but we haven't see it all come to fruition yet," former NFL running back and current NFL Network analyst LaDainian Tomlinson said. "He's right in the prime of his career, and I really think that, if he is united with the right offense, he could have a breakthrough year."
His breakout year was once considered to be 2014, when Miller rushed for 1,099 yards on just 216 carries. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry (second among running backs) and scored eight touchdowns, including an NFL-long score of 97 yards.
The dysfunctional Dolphins proceeded to give him just 194 carries over 16 games last season. He still averaged 4.5 yards per carry, scored eight more touchdowns (including an 85-yarder) and set new career highs with 47 receptions and two receiving scores.
Pro Football Focus believes he was better last season than 2014.
"He gained fewer total yards (872 to 1,101 in 2014), but actually gained more after contact (535 to 486), gaining a full half-yard more per carry after contact this year than the one before," Sam Monson of PFF wrote. "He also put the ball on the ground just once, giving him four fumbles for his career."
Durability is another huge asset for Miller. He's played in 53 straight games and 61 of his first 64 since entering the NFL. Some players enter free agency because teams are scared off by injury woes. That's not the case with Miller.
The free-agent profile for Miller is one of the most intriguing and enticing of the 2016 class.
He's young and talented, with explosive potential for growth—especially in terms of usage and production. His capacity for development as a player derives from something tangible, with his four years of efficiency in Miami serving as the foundation for something potentially special in the future.
Not all gambles in free agency are created equal. In Miller, teams have the opportunity to acquire a game-changing player whose best football is still ahead of him.
Zach Kruse covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.

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