Why Tyler Boyd Will Be a Project at WR in the NFL
The 2016 NFL draft process is well underway, as we're just a week away from the combine and ensuing pro days. Participants and other prospects are hopeful as they train for the biggest job interview they'll ever have. It's important for their physical and mental tests to go well so they can maximize their value.
One of the bigger names in the 2016 wide receiver class is Pittsburgh's Tyler Boyd. He was an impact player for the Panthers in each of his three seasons with the team. He accumulated an impressive 254 receptions, 3,361 yards and 21 touchdowns in his career.
Boyd, a 247Sports 4-star recruit in 2013 from Clairton, Pennsylvania, delivered on his lofty potential and proved to be a dangerous threat every time he stepped on the field. His selflessness was also on display as he took on major responsibilities in college.
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Boyd ran the ball a whopping 63 times in his career, with 40 of those carries coming in 2015 after running back James Conner suffered a season-ending injury. Boyd also stepped in as a return man, closing his career with 46 kick returns and 27 punt returns. He finished second in program history with 5,243 all-purpose yards.
As good as the cumulative production was for Boyd, he will enter the NFL as a project. The 6'2", 200-pound receiver is still in the raw development stages of his career despite the gaudy numbers he's posted. And there is reason to believe he won't improve significantly.
While Boyd is a good player who has a clear role in the NFL based on his strengths, he must improve certain areas to maximize his skill set.
Among the eight games from 2014 and 2015 that I studied, he occasionally made plays that would translate to the NFL. His long yet thin frame allows his quarterback to be somewhat inaccurate and still have a reasonable chance of completing a pass. This is especially true if the pass is high.
Boyd flashed high-point talent with his length and strong hands. There is no question he is a terrific technician with presumably large mitts. He properly times his arm extension and consistently catches the ball with a firm yet forgiving grip.
Boyd, however, lacks the separation ability to give himself or his quarterback a big margin for error. Even against non-NFL prospects, he routinely appeared slow and overly reliant on his frame to create in traffic. While he can convert some of these opportunities at the next level, his lack of quickness and acceleration is limiting.
An effective NFL receiver doesn't need to run a 4.3-second 40-yard dash to get open, but those who lack deep speed must compensate with a trump card. Either small-area quickness or highly nuanced route running can be the difference between Jason Avant and Keenan Allen. Strong hands only get a player so far.
When Boyd matched up against the two best cornerbacks he faced in 2015, he struggled to create space. Both his North Carolina and Iowa tape showed him against future NFL cornerbacks. Those tapes revealed several discouraging results.
Tar Heels sophomore M.J. Stewart is a good athlete with an NFL frame (5'11", 200 lbs). At The Opening in 2013, he recorded a 4.57-second 40, four-second short shuttle and 33.6-inch vertical jump. Those numbers are pedestrian by NFL standards.
Boyd and Steward's one-on-one showdown was an opportunity for Boyd to dominate with his nuance, craft and supposed NFL athleticism. Instead, Stewart came out looking like the better athlete, jumping two of Boyd's targets:
Had this happened just once in Boyd's film, it would be easy to brush off. But in every game, Boyd lacks the twitch and route-running ability to create space against collegiate athletes. On this specific play, the quarterback should have moved on from Boyd because Boyd was fighting the sideline as well as a defender who was well-positioned to bat the ball away.
Boyd did show excellent body control and strong hands earlier in the game. He trapped the ball against his body and tapped his toes in bounds before his momentum carried him out of bounds. This is a strength of Boyd's, but even in this, there is concern.
Stewart ran step for step with Boyd and forced him to make a difficult catch. Again, Stewart is on the lower end of what NFL cornerbacks can do athletically. At best, he projects as a fourth cornerback on an NFL team. Boyd should be able to explode away from end-of-the-roster types.
The best way to project talent is to see how players perform against top competition. When Pittsburgh played the Hawkeyes, Iowa cornerback Desmond King offered a great measuring stick for Boyd. The results from their matchup strongly skewed toward King.
King boxed out Boyd despite being listed as three inches shorter. This cost the Panthers two interceptions, including one in the end zone. Here's King's first pick:
On a basic double move, King was not threatened by Boyd's speed—or lack thereof. He sat on the deep route and read the quarterback. King then pinched Boyd to the sideline, used his body to take him out of the equation and attacked the ball. This is an excellent example of King's ability but also represents what happened too often in Boyd's career.
Since Boyd does not have a thick, muscular frame to offset his lack of explosive traits, he's going to struggle against physical NFL cornerbacks. Lining up on the outside at the next level isn't out of the question, but Boyd must run routes like this more consistently:
In the eight games I evaluated, only three of Boyd's routes were sharp enough to compete with the best route-runners in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, Boyd created significant space when he executed at a high level. The two positive plays featured above are the most notable—but are also uncommon.
Boyd generally runs vague, rounded-off routes. But because he is tall and relatively slow, he gets classified as a consistently great route-runner. The same thing happened when Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry and Jaelen Strong were drafted.
Matthews and Landry have been productive as slot receivers but are limited to that role and have been miscast as No. 1 options. In a high-performing offense, they should be tertiary targets. Their upside for big plays is just too limited for them to earn more opportunities than more explosive players.
Allen is a popular comparison for Boyd. Their height, college role and overall athleticism are similar. But their age, muscle mass and foot efficiency set them apart.
When Allen was drafted in 2013, he had not yet turned 21 years old. He'll be 24 in his fourth season. Boyd will be 23 in November and could weigh between 185 and 200 pounds at the combine. Allen was 206 pounds and a solid 6'2½".
Landry is the best comparison for Boyd in terms of upside, impact and role. Boyd can rotate between the slot and outside receiver positions depending on the matchup and routes. He thrives in traffic and when capitalizing on zone coverages.
Playing in the slot limits how much man coverage a receiver will see. This is good for Boyd since he struggles to gain separation, and the NFL's best playmakers can exploit an inch into yards. He also won't run a full route tree from the slot, and that's a positive.
Boyd can fix some of his route-running issues at the line of scrimmage. He does not explode off the line, so he may need to alter his stance. He is often casual in his release, and the inefficiency costs him tenths of seconds. That's a significant amount of time in the NFL.
Look at it from the viewpoint of a pro quarterback. According to Pro Football Focus, the median average time until a sack occurred in 2015 was 3.35 seconds. The longest average time was 4.29 seconds, but that was to sack Tyrod Taylor, who is mobile and buys time for himself.
Can Boyd consistently get open in the NFL within 3.35 seconds? That's unlikely if he doesn't evolve and improve his efficiency off the line and on his routes. He couldn't create space in college consistently enough to give the impression he will be more than a tough slot receiver with strong hands.
His production as a return man and running back was helpful for Pittsburgh, but he will not be asked to do the same thing in the NFL. He was not an overly good kick returner, as he averaged just 24.4 yards per return and had zero touchdowns. He should fill in as a returner only in cases of emergency. He fumbled the ball nine times in 38 career games, and six of those came on returns, though none of them were lost.
His inability to hold on to the football and break tackles after gaining possession also limits his upside. His thin frame means he'll be exposed to injury whether he is the ball-carrier or the receiver. He has to win in certain conditions, or else opponents will prey on his weaknesses.
As Boyd goes through the combine and pro-day processes, he needs to measure well to protect his stock. Being smaller than listed or slow in drills will raise concerns about his fit in the NFL. Even now, he is a slot receiver at the next level who needs work.
If Boyd can work on his release off the line and increase the sharpness of his routes, he can be a receiver who can rotate between the slot and outside. His reliable hands and excellent body control in tight spots will keep him in the NFL for the foreseeable future. To fulfill his potential, he has work to do.
Based on his comparisons and upside, Boyd should be a top-100 draft choice. This puts him in the Day 2 range. More explosive and physically gifted receivers offer higher ceilings and more potential to be impact players than Boyd. This should factor into his draft positioning.
All stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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