MLB Rookies Under the Most Pressure to Star in 2016 Spring Training
The 2015 Major League Baseball rookie class was one of the best in recent memory. Good for them, but tough luck for the 2016 rookie class. Not an easy act to follow that.
And for some rookies in particular, the pressure to follow that act begins right away.
Spring training is here, folks, and that means a chance to see all our favorite players, well, mostly going through the motions. But it's also a chance to get an up-close look at the sport's most talented youngsters, and there are always a few who deserve more attention than others.
That's our cue to use the ol' "this year is no different" line, as well as our cue to introduce our list of rookies under the most pressure to perform. It includes eight players that were chosen because they have something to gain—a stipulation that barred Julio Urias, Aaron Judge, J.P. Crawford and Tyler Glasnow and others from this list—or immense hype to live up to with their performances this spring. Some have both.
We shall proceed in a sensible order, starting with the player facing the least pressure and counting down to the player facing the most pressure. Step into the box when you're ready.
8. Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
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Nobody is expecting the Colorado Rockies to field a competitive team in 2016. They're not there yet. But for anyone wishing and/or hoping for them to develop a homegrown ace, Jon Gray will see you now.
Or so the Rockies hope, anyway. They tabbed the 24-year-old fireballer as their ace of the future when they selected him with the No. 3 pick in the 2013 draft. But it's been a bumpy ride for him ever since, culminating in a brief major league cameo in 2015 that featured an 8.27 ERA in five starts at Coors Field.
Nonetheless, Gray is going into spring training with a clear shot in Colorado's rotation—and with the expectations of his manager on his shoulders.
"I think he showed a lot of composure, a lot of poise on the mound, wasn't effected by the tough inning, the tough outing," Walt Weiss said in December, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. "His stuff is top-shelf stuff. He's one of the guys I'm very excited about."
The mid-90s fastball and hard slider that made Gray a standout prospect three years ago are still there and still good enough to put Gray among the game's top 35 prospects according to MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. But the key for him going into 2016 may be his new curveball. He told Harding he wanted to develop one because he needed "something really slow to throw a hitter off." He also needs it to help quell his fly-ball tendency, which is not a good tendency for a Rockies pitcher to have—considering Coors Field's low air pressure that guides balls out of the park.
If Gray's curveball turns out to be the weapon he needs, he can provide a glimmer of hope for the Rockies. If not, well, the wait continues.
7. Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins
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Coming off their surprising 2015 season (83-79), the good news is that the Minnesota Twins have enough young hitting talent to fill Grant Balfour's truck. But to stabilize a starting staff that has stunk for the five years, they need a homegrown ace, too.
A year ago, Alex Meyer seemed like the guy for the job. But now, it's clearly Jose Berrios.
In parts of four minor league seasons, the 21-year-old right-hander has used mid-90s fastballs and sharp control to compile a 2.98 ERA and strike out more than a batter per inning. The prospect expert community has noticed, as MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus agree that he's a top-30 prospect.
There is one catch, though. At 6'0" and under 200 pounds, Berrios is undersized for a top pitching prospect. That makes for a built-in shred of doubt, which even Twins general manager Terry Ryan had to acknowledge last year.
"We're all sensitive to the innings, and there's no question that's a factor," he said, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. "He's also about 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, so it's not like this is a 6-4, 200-pounder. So I'm a little concerned we don't do any damage when he's built up a good resume."
Berrios is also still trying to prove himself to the big club. The Twins weren't quite ready to promote him at the end of 2015, and he's heading into spring training without a clear shot at a job. Surely, the Twins' preference is to wait until after the Super-Two deadline to call on him.
All the same, the Twins undoubtedly want to see Berrios live up to his billing this spring. And if he can do that, the fire under the club will be lit. He'll have teased that he can be the ace they're looking for, and that could result in the Twins calling on him to help a potential playoff push as soon as possible.
6. Joey Gallo, 3B/OF, Texas Rangers
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Yes, Joey Gallo is still technically a rookie. He got his feet wet with the Texas Rangers last season, but he fell just short of the 130 at-bat limit that defines rookie eligibility.
And now, the question Gallo needs to answer is how many at-bats he deserves in 2016.
As many as the Rangers can give him, says the (admittedly biased) thunder in his bat. Gallo's power is considered a true 80-grade tool and is the reason why he's hyped as a top-10 prospect. And as he's already shown in the majors, it looks just as good in real life as it sounds on paper.
Despite that, Gallo's path to regular action in the majors remains unclear. Though Josh Hamilton's sore left knee would seem to create an opening for Gallo, 22, in left field, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers plan to keep Gallo at third base, where he's still blocked by Adrian Beltre. As such, they're clearly not counting on Gallo to help them defend their AL West title.
Could the Rangers rethink things? The speculation dial can probably be turned to "Maybe"—but with one condition. With a 34.7 career strikeout rate in the minors and a whopping 46.3 strikeout rate in the majors, Gallo needs to show the Rangers that he might be able to cut down on his strikeouts.
However, it's not the best idea for him to sacrifice any power to do so. That's the kind of tightrope that would intimidate even Philippe Petit, and Gallo's progression may remain stuck in neutral if he fails to walk it this spring.
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4. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
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If Giolito's task of living up to the hype while also putting himself on the Nationals' radar sounds tough, wait till you get a load of the spring training task that awaits Trea Turner.
As a prospect, most everyone loves Turner. MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus put him among baseball's top 15 prospects, and Baseball America puts him among the top 10. His best asset is his blinding speed, but he also projects as a pretty good hitter (see his .322 average in the minors) and a pretty good fielder.
But now Turner, 22, needs to prove he's ready to leave his prospect days behind him. He's going into spring training with a chance to earn Washington's starting shortstop gig, and general manager Mike Rizzo indicated to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post in December that Turner doesn't have the inside track.
"I think he has to prove defensive consistency, defensive consistency and just logging some at-bats. Don’t forget, he only played one full season of professional baseball out of college, so he’s been on a whirlwind tour of the development system. And, obviously, he’s got tremendous talent that allows him to do that, and he’s handled it terrifically.
"
That's to say that Turner will have to outplay veteran defensive whiz Danny Espinosa to capture the gig, which is of no small importance to the Nationals. Shortstop is, after all, the most important defensive position on the diamond outside of catcher.
And it sure would be convenient for the Nationals if Turner earned the job. That would give them an everyday shortstop with a higher ceiling than Espinosa and also free Espinosa up to be a very useful utility infielder. If he kills it in spring training, they can kill two birds with one stone.
3. Steven Matz, SP, New York Mets
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The New York Mets can already say that they have the best starting rotation trio in baseball, but they'd surely prefer to say that they have the best starting foursome in baseball.
Well, that's up to Steven Matz.
Matz is going into spring training as the No. 4 starter in the Mets' rotation, and he's earned it. The 24-year-old lefty dominated his way through the minor leagues with a 2.25 ERA in parts of four seasons and handled himself well in nine starts at the major league level in 2015.
And the hype is real. MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus agree that Matz is one of the top prospects in the game. And when looking at what he's working with—namely an awesome fastball-changeup combination—your humble narrator is also a fan of Matz.
Still, questions remain. Matz needs to show that the success he had with his previously unspectacular curveball in 2015 was the real deal. More importantly, he needs to avoid any further trouble with his eternal nemesis, the injury bug. That's a real threat to keep him from the 190-inning goal that the Mets have set for him going into 2016 and a real threat to the Mets' rotation depth in general.
And overall, Matz is facing the unenviable task of living up to the reputation of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. Can he be as good, or is he going to be the less awesome stepchild of the Mets' young rotation?
5. Lucas Giolito, SP, Washington Nationals
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Here's a complete list of experts that are head-over-heels for Lucas Giolito:
- All of them
The Washington Nationals' young right-hander is ranked as the No. 1 pitching prospect and No. 3 overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Keith Law of ESPN.com agrees, writing: "If you wanted to build the perfect pitching prospect, he'd look a lot like Giolito."
But while all this praise is great, Giolito now has to tackle the hard part of living up to it.
That may not be so simple. Prospects rise and fall all the time, and we know from the story of Archie Bradley that not even the best pitching prospect is immune to failing. Everyone thought he was the next big thing going into spring training in 2014, but he struggled and has since all but fallen off the radar.
If all does go well, though, Giolito will show off the same things that have allowed the 21-year-old to post a 2.63 ERA and strike out 10 batters per nine innings in the minors. Those include an 80-grade fastball that sits in the mid- to upper 90s and a power curveball, as well as pretty good control.
The catch is that, like Berrios, Giolito isn't really in a position to earn a job in Washington's starting rotation no matter how well he pitches this spring. He's only made eight starts above High-A, and the Nats aren't going into spring training desperate for answers at the back end of their rotation.
Where Giolito differs from Berrios, however, is that he's trying to put himself on the radar for the starting rotation of a team with eyes on the World Series. To move up his arrival into a situation like that, his performance this spring is going to have to be pretty darn good.
2. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are expecting big things from Corey Seager in 2016, and they're not the only ones.
Everyone else and their uncle (and their uncle) is as well. Such expectations come with the territory when people think you're the No. 1 prospect in baseball, and that's the label Seager is bearing going into 2016. It doesn't matter whether you ask MLB.com, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or Keith Law.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers' starting shortstop gig is Seager's to lose. Between that and the whole No. 1 prospect thing, there figure to be more eyes on him than on any other prospect this spring.
The best hope for Seager, 21, is to validate the hype that lies in his bat. He's a .307 career hitter with an .891 career OPS in the minors, and he hit .337 with a .986 OPS in 27 games in the majors last year. As MLB.com writes: "Seager has a higher offensive ceiling than any big league shortstop except for Carlos Correa."
These is something that could crash the party, though. Seager's defense is weaker than his offense, which is the drawback of his 6'4" and 215-pound frame. As Law writes: "Seager has the hands for short but not the speed or agility."
This would be easy to downplay if the Dodgers didn't specialize in ground balls. But in recent seasons, they've induced ground balls about as well as Vin Scully spins yarns.
Basically, Seager not only needs to show that he's the prospect everyone thinks he is, but also the shortstop the Dodgers need him to be. Best of luck, man.
1. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
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Going into spring training, the message the Twins are sending Byron Buxton is something like: "No pressure, man. But, seriously, literally all of the pressure."
The Twins entered the offseason with options in center field. But thanks to the trade of Aaron Hicks, not even Paul Molitor is attempting to hide that Buxton pretty much needs to be the guy.
“It will make things a lot smoother if he’s the guy. Because if he’s not, it’s going to be interchanging parts and it might not look too pretty, at least at the start,” the Twins skipper said last month, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. “So I’m hoping that works out. It would be the best-case scenario if Byron Buxton is ready to be our center fielder.”
Is Buxton ready? The Twins obviously think so. Buxton himself told Miller that he thinks so. And the prospect gurus think so, too. With an eye-popping set of tools headlined by 80-grade speed, the 22-year-old is universally considered the No. 2 prospect in baseball behind only Seager.
One difference between the two, of course, is that Buxton technically has to earn his job. Another is that the upstart Twins need him to succeed more than the star-laden Dodgers need Seager to succeed. There's also more room for doubt where Buxton is concerned. He hit just .209 with a .576 OPS in 46 major league games last year, and the defensive metrics were split on his supposedly excellent defense.
After a showing like that, the Twins need the real Buxton to show up. Or, more accurately, what they hope is the real Buxton.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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